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We didn't have snow in the U.P. til about the end January. I almost feel like it was later than that honestly. If that's not a red flag idk what is.
It almost felt like we skipped winter altogether. This was the mildest winter I've ever experienced.
Yeah I worked down in florida all last summer with record breaking heat. It was unbearable. It was the first time I was excited for winter when I moved back home but it never really came. We only had a handful of times that it snowed and stuck on the ground.
my grandmother-in-law has lived in the u.p. for almost 80 years and said the same thing. a bit unnerving
Smoke em while you got em. The water wars will start soon.
At least Michigan is the best state to own property in when they do!
Yeah til the Forrest fires eventually make it our way.
Hey, something has to kill the ticks now that we don't have winter! /s
Don't worry, we'll have chopped all the forests down by then.
she's got a well for water. damn maybe thats some real classified information now
Ya my family members who are in their 70s said the same thing this year. It’s absolutely outside the realm of anything they’d ever seen up here before, and the data support this feeling.
Yep, especally in the SW Michigan. It seemed like the MTB trails were open more than closed this past Winter. My Fat Bike built for the snow is collecting dust at this point.
We're in a strong El Niño period with warmer air feeding the weather patterns across the whole US.
Which acts in conjunction with climate change to create these kinds of atypical seasonal weather.
My dude I get El Nino could possibly be the reason but explain why past El Nino have still brought snow to the snowbelt but this one was different? Just a fluke year then huh? Locals have never seen a winter like that. They had to cancel dog races and ice fishing tournaments that have been reoccurring for decades. Firstbyearbthey had to cancel. The ski resorts were a wasteland which once again never happens. Society is sick and the earth is sick of society.
We didn't even have winter here. We had two massive storms, beginning and end of the season. I couldn't believe seeing grass in fucking ISHPEMING in February.
At my dad’s there were MOSQUITOES out during this past winter! My dad couldn’t believe it. It had just snowed and there were swarms of them. Granted the snow melted the next day but still.
We straight up had a summer storm at the end of February
Real talk. It seemed like even up north there was almost literally not a winter.
The best collection of Michigan weather stories I've found is a book called "So Cold A Sky" by Karl Bohnak. (Highly recommend for anyone on this sub!) There are stories of winters similar to this last one but this one would certainly make the book.
I live on the state line, and it only seems to snow any substantial amount during those yearly lovely arctic blasts we get. It's muddy for Chrstmas, drops well below zero in January and for the rest of the winter it's muddy with occasional snow
This makes me VERY upset, and I absolutely hate winter.
Read my last comment it should make you feel better.
The one about working in Florida? Because yes, at least we don't live in Florida.
No lol. my long comment I typed out in this thread. Look at comment history.
Found it!
Right. I planted some broccoli and cauliflower early so they didn't bolt on me by the end of June. But considering we have such a warm streak this past month and seem to have July weather now, they're not as well off as I'd planned.
And nobody I talk to about it ever acknowledges that it's global warming. They're just like "Lol Michigan weather amirite? 🤷🏻♂️" And these people aren't anti-science, they just don't want to say it because talking about an existential threat makes it real, and isn't exactly appealing for casual conversation. I guess I don't blame them, but I also feel like we need to normalize it because everyone everywhere is doing the same "just don't talk about it" thing, which isn't helping the problem.
Sorry for the weird tangent.
Most of the country moved up a zone
I studied meteorology in college. I have a classmate that works for NOAA. We used to have arced line fronts that moved across the US without much variation in the 70s, 80s, and 90s. We now have more circular rotating systems moving over the land mass. The development of cities into heat islands has upset how the planet warms up over the course of the day. This causes these weather patterns resulting in more violent storms now with worse conditions coming. Be thankful that you live in Michigan where we have fewer of and less severe major weather events (so far).
Here are some great sites for weather tracking: https://www.windy.com/?44.816,-85.581,5
Thank you that is the kind of information I was looking for!
In more layman's terms for anyone else reading:
Water and air are the things that transfer and hold energy around our planet. If you live near large bodies of water, those act as very large energy storage devices. Cities have taken on that role too. Lots of pockets of places with tall buildings and lots of stored heat create all the extra swirls of air patterns. This creates more mixing.
"Weather" happens when there is a meeting of dissimilar types of air above you, hot meets cold, wet gets blown into dry, Canadian smoke particulates meets wet Michigan air, etc etc.
More mixing = more drastic change in shorter time scales.
Nice to see spaghettimodels getting some love.
That was a wild ride opening on mobile.
Where's a sharpie and a deranged president when you need one?
so this is an idea that is based on basically my own hypotheticals drawing from other unrelated areas, but would it make sense to say that it isnt necessarily extreme weather, or warming, or cooling, or climate change that is the root problem - it is there is no equilibrium, the weather is constantly changing (both across days and seasons) which means no plants or animals (including humans) are able to adapt, because there is no stability?
also, humidity is the killer.
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13d
that makes sense and i guess is kinda what i was thinking even if i didnt say that specifically. referring to us, the humans, that is a reason why there are so many people living not very enjoyable lives. even if you try to adapt, by the time you do, its already changed... and we have not built reliable social support systems to help mitigate the problems caused by that
life forms evolved over millions of years to adapt to their changing environment. what weve done were not giving them enough time
What is a "heat island"? I assume it's a pocket of hot air surrounding cities, but please educate me.
The more pavement you lay down somewhere, the more solar heating you incur. Ever walk from your lawn or a concrete area onto a black asphalt surface when it's sunny out? All of that heat builds all day long forming a warm rising air column. Put a lot of these areas together (say in a large city) and you have a heat island. Now, move a cold front over a large heat island and you get warm air spiraling up through the colder air. Suddenly, you're forming a rotational mass. Thunderstorms and tornadoes build on that energy.
If you look "upstream" from the current tornado alleys in the US, you'll either find a desert area for the heat to build up in or a string of large cities. This is why Chicago has an affect of tornadoes hitting Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, and Lansing.
You're right and wrong. The company I work with works with the NWS. You'll see intense hurricanes this year as well as a fairly hot summer (but this I mean you're going to see long periods of time where high pressure systems are sitting on top of the area baking it with little to no relief) , but this is mostly due to the extraordinary slow La Nina that is about to take place, it is also why this next winter will be brutal. Climate change exists, but to attribute it as the sole reason for intense weather is lazy..
What causes an extraordinarily slow La Niña?
Build up of cooler sub surface waters in the pacific
Keep going bud, you got this. Five "whys"
I'm a bit of a weather geek here.
As you work with the NWS. It's only Mid May and the United States has had an very interesting severe weather season so far.
Are you and the NWS noticing any familar patterns in the past to reference from?
In my neck of the wood (West Michigan). We don't really have much for severe weather other than hail and the occasional straight line winds. It's been a while since we had a Derecho unless you count the 2 dying Derechos in 2019. The most talked about one is the Memorial day 1998 derecho and the heat wave series derecho in July 2006. Tornados, closest was 2 years ago was a funnel cloud but didn't touch down.
Can tell you to that Michigan is expected to have more "severe" storms this summer, not in frequency though, but in intensity. Eventually you're going to have low pressure systems collide with high pressure systems that are moving so slow over the state (US in general), this will create some pretty nasty storms I do think, however I think you'll see a lower number on average this year.
I'd watch out the next two days though, I think Michigan has a pretty moderate risk for strong storms which include tornados. A great tool to use is NOAA's website https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/ where you can see exactly what the forecast is as far as severe weather goes, they're right more than they're wrong and they're also right way more than I am.
Please bare in mind that I am not a meteorologist though and those people are WAY better at predicting than I am, I just work with assessing severe weather.
Just want to point out that for statistical analysis purposes you should be looking across 30 years or so. More years is even better.
I'm giving OP sources to look at. I am not saying every weather event is a result of climate change. I am saying the severity, frequency, and the extreme swings are mostly attributed by experts to climate change. Lots of experts have weighed in on this.
Hell yeah. You go, weather-person.
What do you mean you work "with" the National Weather Service. Do you work "for" the NWS? Calling people lazy is lazy.
How is it lazy? Literally anyone that knows anything about weather/climate would agree with their statement that blaming everything on global warming is just dumb.
The company I work with works hand in hand with the NWS. I chase severe weather for a living (tornados, hurricanes, blizzards, heat waves etc.) Obviously there are people way more knowledgeable than myself, nobody should take mine, or really anyone else's word for gospel.
I absolutely hate it when climate change is used as the main factor for weather changes, it's A factor, not THE factor. It does exist, not saying it doesnt. With how volatile people are in 2024 doing this just ends up politicizing it which is even more toxic and why people dont think climate change exists.
I dont really care if you think it's lazy, thats my opinion, just as you have yours.
What about the weakened Jet Stream allowing Arctic Air to slide over the United States (Polar Vortex) repeatedly, and the probable collapse of the Atlantic Current?
Ugh, thanks, now I'm already dreading next winter
The center for Climate and Energy Solutions is an interesting organization.
It was instructive to click on the "About Us" tab and read the bios of their board of directors.
Not a lot of diversity on that board; particularly diversity of perspective.
There were several people who stand to make a lot of money off efforts to combat anthropogenic climate change.
That's like saying the board of a medical policy organization is composed of people who would make a lot of money curing diseases.
Precisely. Thanks for helping prove my point.
That doesn't mean their analysis and recommendations are wrong. It is a well established fact that climate change is happening and is altering weather patterns, by many disparate organizations most of whom have no financial incentive to promote a narrative that climate change is real.
I agree with you that climate change is real.
I disagree with you that a lot of the people leading the fight against it aren't in it for the money.
What does 'diversity of prospective' mean in this context? There is overwhelming evidence of climate change and that is not debated in the scientific community. I personally collected ice sheet data over Antarctica, Greenland, and Alaska. I made a salary doing so. Does that mean the data is tainted?
I'm 64 and have lived in the geographic center of Ottawa County since 1964. One thing I do know for a fact is changing rapidly, and that is farmers' spring planting. For 100 years, the saying "corn needs to be knee-high by the fourth of July to make a crop by harvest time." Another one was that the seed needed to be in the ground by Memorial Day to make a crop by harvest time. Spring planting has been creeping towards earlier and earlier for years now. Farmers are a month ahead of planting this year; some will have knee-high corn by the fourth of June. A lot of farmers are conservatives and will not say this is because of global warming but they will sure will and have been taking advantage of it.
I’m near you and you’re correct. I’m waiting for them to move tulip time to an earlier date as it was a bust for the most part with the early bloom this year. Gotta have the tourist dollars.
Tulip time seemed so early this year that I didn't notice it was happening until it was over.
It was. Even then, the news reported the tulips were done halfway through the week. I’m sure there was a lot of disappointment from vacationers.
Yeah, there were no tulips, and the streets were all torn up. Welcome to Holland!
I stay home all week. It took me an hour to go 5 miles one year, so I get provisions and hunker like it’s a snowstorm🙄
I was having salads out of my home garden in april. Nuff said
Michigan weather: too confusing, too extreme
They said this in the last state I lived in too.
I saw the headline and came just to post this. Good job
Yes. NOAA has a nice summary report on Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters for the state and regional office summaries (linked region is Detroit/Pontiac). They have archives of detailed descriptions broken down by month as well and a few other statistics linked to at the bottom of that page.
Thank you!
Global climate change is a more correct and preferred term over global warming.
All weather will become more unpredictable and sometimes more severe. This is true for all extreme weather, everywhere.
A few resources:
Storm Prediction Center - storm prediction and discussion.
I’d recommend getting a good warning app. You can also purchase a weather radio that will shriek like a banshee when there is a warning.
Also download something like RadarScope to track the storms. There are YouTube videos on how to read radar scans.
Thank you these are all very helpful!
Honestly, the best warning app was Weather Radio by WDT.
Whenever a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, Severe Thunderstorm Warning or a Tornado Warning is issued. Watches and warning got played over the notifications using media volume for ex: beep beep beep the National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning.
But, it was discontinued a while ago but the app still works but I haven't found a app to directly replace it with.
I used to be able to get through Summers without AC. I can’t anymore.
We got a split about 7 years ago for air conditioning. We live in Northern lower Michigan. Yesterday we met our son in St. Ignace to give him a floor air conditioner that we bought off of FB as it’s even getting ridiculously hot for him in Marquette.
The summer of my 6 grade to 7 grade year was the only time we needed AC as there was a heatwave at the time. It’s now that hit by May every year.
Michigan has been the site of multiple F4 and F5 tornados. People just forgot about them.
Also remember that we are sharing more data now. We are more aware of events than we were in the past.
Yes, Michigan is warming up. But many of the younger people don’t remember the bad tornados of the past.
Also another data point. Michigan really didn’t get tornado warnings until around 1965 (sirens).
We have more warnings because we now have better radar. We had no warning for the F4 that went by our house when I was a baby. Consider it a blessing that you are getting warnings.
It's not so much the tornadoes I've noticed. It's that snow doesn't seem as frequent in the winter anymore.
That is absolutely true. I have pictures of my sisters birthday party (early December) and the snow is a couple of feet deep. Now it is grass.
My birthday is in mid-November and there ALWAYS used to be a blizzard on or the week before. Not anymore.
Arguably the F5s can at least be considered a bit of an outlier considering the state only saw 2 ever -- within 5 years of each other, no less.
F4s are definitely on the table, but also uncommon, with the last one being in 1977.
F3s and lower are more likely, and even an F2 can produce lots of damage such as the pair of high end F2's that touched down in Portage roughly a week ago.
This was a discussion in tornado subreddit. People are falsely assuming an increase in warnings means an increase in tornados. What is actually happening is the increase in warned tornados. That is a good thing.
Edit: F4 and F5 tornados are uncommon everywhere. Thank goodness.
True but we can observe tracks on the ground and other signs of damage that show powerful tornadoes move by. The area that got hit last week by just shy of an EF3 demolished a large path through the forest.
We definitely are more capable of giving advance warning before a tornado has even touched down though, which is a relief in itself.
You need to remember that in the past, smaller tornadoes went undetected. Now that we have better radar they are noticed. Then people think there is an increase in tornadoes or that the paths are shifting.
To get a good statistic analysis you need at least 30 years of data. We actually have more than that. Using tornado size of F2 and above will account for our previous inability to see the smaller tornados.
And examination of tornados F2 and above shows that nothing is really changing yet.
I'm a lifelong MI native. We used to have gentle rains, soothing and all day long. I would be able to play outside in them as a kid, dancing in the puddles. They smelled great and usually cooled down the day. Not these thunder and lightning filled downpours every single time. Yes, they happened too, but not Every. Single. Time. I haven't seen that type of gentle, cooling all day rain in about ten years.
I live in Detroit and I've noticed that the winds are getting real fierce and severe. Someone speculated that the trees being cut down and vacant homes being demolished are the reason because the wind doesn't have anything to block it. I don't know about that, but something is up.
It’s way more windy then when I was younger
Trees are a wind block, any farmer will tell you that, I agree. BUT. I'm betting a search will result in higher wind speed averages. I agree it certainly seems more windy more often. A gentle breeze has turned into 20+ mph wind speeds almost every week.
I think this year, we've been hit early. But I also think that for the last few years, it's been mild. It seems like these storms come in cycles. I clearly remember 32 years ago hitting the basement weekly because of tornadoes (my son was born that year, so). We just have to wait and see how this summer shakes out.
It's not just you. I recall researching this topic a few months ago when I had similar thoughts. There are several contributing factors to our current weather patterns. Notably:
Warmer Days: Unsurprisingly, warmer days are indeed becoming hotter.
Colder Days: Contrary to initial expectations, colder days are not warming up as anticipated. This phenomenon contributes to the wild temperature swings we're experiencing.
For further insights, consider cross-referencing the following topics:
Weakening Jet Stream
Arctic Amplification
Stratospheric Polar Vortex
Learn more from Judah Cohen, MIT's Director of Seasonal Forecasting here -- https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-01008-9#Sec2
hope this helps...
I know you say you know that global warming is a thing but it doesn’t only make the earth hotter, it makes ALL weather more extreme. So it makes tornados worse, hurricanes worse, heat waves worse, everything weather related. Then that throws off migrating birds, herds, and the animals that rely on the migrating animals, etc.
Scientists have literally been sounding the alarm on exactly what is now happening for about 20+ years now, and it’s happening exactly as predicted.
As everything on earth warms there will be more energy in every weather system so, yes.
Read "The Uninhabitable Planet" for a better idea of what the future holds.
If they stopped paving roads and let grass and trees actually take up the spaces nature intended - we wouldn’t have HEAT baking our cities . Cement traps and radiates heat .
It is more extreme, yes. But also, tornado alley as we usually think of it (Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri; etc) is shifting in a major way. The new tornado alley includes southern Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio and Michigan. Of course there’s also Dixie alley down south, which has created some absolute monster storms in recent years. This shift in locations is just another side effect of global climate change. Sadly, like someone else mentioned here, it’s only going to get worse from here on out. You can join the r/tornado sub, I’ve learned so much just reading through some of the posts!
Michigan is *not* in tornado alley, we can have surprise events here and there but on average Michigan does not see a lot of Tornadoes.
There were 3 tornadoes in 2020, and only 6 in 2022.
Statistically Michigan sees about 16 annually in the entire state, and 2021 and 2023 were only slightly above this average.
Compare this to places adjacent to Tornado alley like Illinois (average like 54)
2020 -- 74
2021 -- 82
2022 -- 39
2023 -- 145
Places like Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas get even more on average. You did correctly point out that Dixie alley is a thing as well.
Yeah and the severity of tornadoes in Michigan is way different than in KS for example. I grew up in KS and have lived here for a decade and not a single tornado I've seen in the news has been as devastating as even the mildest one in KS.
Correct, because the more extreme weather is in the process of shifting from one area to the next. I’m certainly not saying that the storms in Michigan are on par with or even stronger than storms in Kansas, Oklahoma etc. I’m saying they are on a trajectory to be.
I said tornado alley was shifting & the new tornado alley would include Michigan. No, statistically we aren’t on par with the existing tornado alley states at this very moment, but as our climate continues to change, so will the weather events in Michigan.
And that's wholly incorrect. The new tornado alley, if any, wouldn't include Ohio, let alone Michigan.
Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota are more likely candidates.
Additionally it's not that it's shifting, but that our understanding of tornadogenesis has improved tremendously.
A 2018 study found in the U.S. an overall eastward shift of tornado frequency and impacts – toward Dixie Alley. The study found relatively-lower tornado frequency and impacts in parts of the traditional Tornado Alley, especially areas from north-central Texas toward the Houston, Texas area, and relatively-higher tornado frequency and impacts in parts of the Mid-South, especially eastern Arkansas, the greater Memphis, Tennessee area and northern Mississippi – all areas near the heart of Dixie Alley. Source: Dixie Alley on Wikipedia
The issue is there are tornado alleys and a Tornado alley. The section named Tornado alley really should be renamed. It might have and it just hasn't spread to the common folks. As climate change shifts that most certainly can be new alleys forming.
It's not like talk of new or changing alleys is new. A 2015 mlive article talks about alleys that the lead, at the time, forecaster saw in the data. They should probably be called proto-alleys though since frequency is obviously lower.
I mean, the forecaster is mostly accurate. Michigan has two pretty notable tracks that tend to see more tornadoes than the rest of the state.
But I see no issues with tornado alley -- the large tracks over the great plains that see the most frequent and powerful tornadoes. Nor do I have an issue with Dixie Alley because the Alabama/Mississippi border seems to get smacked with frequent tornadoes as well.
Overall both regions form an L shape between the cold Rockies and the humid Caribbean, and it slightly wraps around Missouri which seems to not get hit nearly as frequently as its neighbors.
But saying that Michigan is part of either alley is silly.
Actually, there is no strong evidence it is shifting. What is actually happening is that we are better able to detect tornados and give warning.
Explain why we had EF4's and EF5's in the 60s, 70s and 80s but none sense then.
The Enhanced Fujita(EF) scale wasn’t implemented until 2007; before that it was the original Fujita scale which often overestimated tornado wind strength. The last F5 in Michigan was in ‘56. It doesn’t happen here often because Michigan just doesn’t usually have the conditions to birth extremely strong tornado’s. It is likely that we will start seeing a slight uptick though.
Explain why you think EF4 and EF5 frequency are THE important measure of severe weather. EF0 & EF1 will fuck your shit up too, ya know?
Explain why you think EF4 and EF5 frequency are THE important measure of severe weather.
Because the question was "is the weather getting more extreme"
An EF4 and EF5 are more extreme than a EF0 and an EF1.
All tornadoes are rare. In the upper midwest ef4+ is vanishingly rare. An increase in any types of tornadoes and/or straight-line wind damage, hail, and heavy rainfall events are all indicators of increased severity. You dont need to only consider the most ridiculously extreme events to see increased extrema.
I am sorry the data doesn't fit your narrative so you've got to change your narrative. Just remember when an EF4 & 5 hits. You already discounted that as proof of anything. Its just an extremely rare event according to you. I don't believe that at all. That's what you believe.
OFFS, whatever, have your incurious binary world.
That was the entire point of what I was saying. We're not in a binary word and you're treating it as such. If you want to argue with me in binary. You can't have it both ways.
You're basically denying history because it's not convenient to fit your narrative.
Wasn’t the Beecher tornado in 54 a F5
Took me a long time for me to find the comment pointing out Michigan's long, colorful past with tornadoes. Knowing the history of a thing is so important! I just moved here and immediately absorbed all the local tornado history so I could be ready.
Some of the worst tornadoes on record happened in 1965 in Michigan, the Palm Sunday tornado outbreak. 47 tornadoes in the span of like, 36 hours? Michigan has not had a tornado above E3 since 1977, when the last E4 ripped through Kazoo.
There are some cool archives that show the historical tracks tornadoes took in Michigan. I'll come back and edit this comment and add them!
This is a cool archive! It has a cool manipulatable database for all the tornadoes we have records for, so you can sort and see things by year or other filters: https://data.lansingstatejournal.com/tornado-archive/
Knowing the science behind a thing is even more important. The Fujita(F) scale was replaced with the Enhanced Fujita(EF) scale in 2007. The F scale was prone to overestimating the strength of Tornados.
This will be the CALMEST weather you will probably see for the rest of your life.
Climate change is undoubtedly having an impact here, but as others have said, our warning systems have improved a lot too (which means more frequent warnings when necessary, and hopefully more lives saved as a result). This year has been pretty active so far, but I think a combination of these factors + increased exposure to news makes it seem even more extreme.
As someone who also has anxiety, staying “weather aware” has helped me a lot. Have multiple ways to get warnings, have a plan for where to go during different types of severe weather, keep an eye on the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center forecasts. And learn how to read the forecasts! Oftentimes, the risk map will look scary, but we’ll actually be in the “2% to 5% chance of storms within 25 miles of a given location” category. If the weather is actively severe, there are even meteorologists and storm chasers you can follow live on YouTube or X to find out more about exactly where the worst threats are headed. Try not to obsess about it — focusing on it too much can be bad for you, too — but knowledge is power!
It has, largely because of climate change.
The way climate change changes things is a little counter-intuitive. When the average temperature of the planet goes up, it doesn't just make things hotter, it adds a lot more energy into the weather system that makes more and more extreme weather events like tornadoes possible.
This process has also gotten worse in the past few years, and will probably get even worse before it gets better. Michigan is actually in a really good spot for weathering climate change, the fresh water and abundant lakes act like a damper on rapidly changing temperatures.
The explanation is HOW climate change is causing this. It doesn't just get warmer. Winters will have extremely low cold snaps and winter storms, summer will have less storms but when they happen they are much more intense. As things get more dry, forest fires will increase here too. Winter is colder and harsher, summer hotter and drier, storms less frequent but more and more intense. In part bc the wind currents become more unstable as the polar ice melts and changes the temp of the oceans.
Climate change is happening on a positive feedback loop. This is what we've been trying to tell ppl: you didn't feel it that much for the last 20 years bc it was gaining momentum. Now that it's reached this point things will RAPIDLY get worse. Think of it like moving a big rock down a hill. Luckily Michigan is projected to be one of the better areas to live going forward.
I'm a sportsman I hunt and I fish. It's a passion of mine and I've been doing it since the early 1980's. I spend most of my free time outdoors. I pay attention to the weather non stop. I've been ice fishing the great lakes my whole life. Lakes used to freeze in December and stay frozen until mid March. The coastguard would use ships to break up the ice starting in late February for the shipping lanes. The last 15 years has been really bizarre. The last 3 years we didn't get enough ice to walk on. The past 10 years the lakes haven't froze until mid January. In the 80's and 90's we used to drive our cars on the lakes. Another thing we haven't had a major snow storm since the early 2000's. I do a lot of fishing in the spring and summer. We've turned into Seattle with rain. It never rained this much in the 80's and 90's. We have a river that feeds into the lake. May is the best month of the year for walleye. It rains such much the lake turns to mud. I watch satellite photos from NOAA to see when the mud clears up.
The New York Times just had an article about how insurers are pulling out of Midwest states including Michigan because of the changing severe weather
That honestly doesn't surprise me. After the hail storm we had last year our insurance went up a lot.
My dad left Michigan in the late 80's and returned in the 2010's. He says the difference in weather is quite remarkable.
Definitely. This storm was intense! They are getting more common as well.
The weather is getting more intense, yes, but also keep in mind that May is the peak month for severe thunderstorm activity across the US each year. So, it’s kind of this “little of column A, little of column B” scenario where we have warmer temperatures fueling what’s already an intense month.
Michigan gets its share of tornadoes every season, but they’re generally on the weaker side and we’ll probably be pretty okay in the long run. Where the effects of climate change will really be felt is in Tornado Alley. We’ve already seen it this year, as there were a couple of cities in Oklahoma that got hammered by one tornado after another to end April and begin May. I also think that events that were once rare - like the EF3 that touched down near Gaylord a couple of years ago, something that typically doesn’t happen that far north - will become less unheard of as climate change progresses.
Yes 100%. And it's going to get worse 😕
There are people who are actively cheering global warming, hoping it will lead to rapture and thinking they will be the ones who will be saved.
I started educating people about climate change 5 years ago. The "non-believers", those who refuse to listen to the facts of climate change are so much whackier than they were back then.
That would be statistically expected, even if it weren't for the rampant politicization of the subject in the U.S. As things get visibly worse, the holdouts are going to be the nuttier ones, while the more reasonable ones get convinced and accept the new reality for what it is.
Also, kudos to you for making the effort to educate! It's very appreciated; I'm doing my best as well.
I have a relative that bounces between its not happening and climate change is good. Depends on how he wakes up.
The weather is concerning. The past 18 months have each broken records for the hottest months ever.
With increased temperatures comes more wildfires, hurricanes, more powerful storms, increased rainfall and flooding in some areas, and drought in others.
What can you do? It's what you eat and what you drive: *Eat less beef and more vegetarian meals *Drive an EV if you can, if you can't a hybrid or high MPG car. Walk, bike or take public transportation *Contact politicians who represent you regularly, telling them that climate is an important issue to you. Vote for politicians who believe climate change exists • I've been noticing that it's really a taboo subject. Break the ice: talk about climate change and tell people what we can do
yes, and the record breaking high temperatures every year don't help either. got me anxious and sweaty
Yes. It’s called climate change.
Doesn't seem like it. The tornado sirens used to go off way more than I was a kid.
Yea. Thats what was projected to happen. Its going to get way worse
It is definitely getting more extreme.
Anecdotal, but there were a ton of tornadoes in Michigan when I was growing up. It's part of the reason why i moved to a region where tornadoes are rare (but becoming less so, now).
I grew up in the 90s. I remember tornadoes there were times we were held at at school until someone could come get us because of tornadoes. But what I think is strange is the storms. We used to have a few really really good storms every summer. Big scary storms, more often than not in the middle of the night, lots of lightning, wind, and hail. We don't get those today. Not like the ones I'm thinking of.
Definitely! I’ve been at my job just over a year and we’ve had to go into the bathroom 5 or 6 times so far because of tornado warnings. Its weird
The pour downs are. They started in 2018, that was the worse year.
Your not imagining things the weather has gone crazy and not just because it's michigan. Worried about how hot the summer is going to be.
It's only going to continue to get worse unless we really get serious about reducing emissions.
I'll say this: the lupine has been flowering earlier each year of late and this year it's about two weeks earlier than usual.
We're going to need a decade (at least) of data before we can say that the climate here has changed because we do go through normal cycles and this year could be an aberration.
As for tornadoes, MLIVE had a chart a week back showing all the recorded tornadoes Michigan has had over the past decades though the chart is missing a few. I didn't count or analyze the chart to see if there are increases. I'm just surprised that we're apparently in tornado alley.
Yes.
I work in home claims. Used to be that when someone would file a claim for hail In Michigan you’d say “ok - sure” then find nothing at the house but a simple in some downspouts. Now there’s actual hail that’s producing damage. Makes the job easier because there’s damage I can pay for, but yeah… storms are getting worse
Last week the NY Times had an article on home insurance companies losing money due to extreme weather in a number of states, including Michigan. (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/13/climate/insurance-homes-climate-change-weather.html. sorry about the paywall). So, yes, I'd say extreme weather is getting worse, in a way that can be measured in dollars.
I've read that tornado alley is moving eastward.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/watch-out-tornado-alley-is-migrating-eastward/
I also feel like it’s windy all the time. I don’t remember it being so windy when I was younger. Straight line winds are more frequent. Even Republic had a tornado about 7 years ago.
Yes. Global warming is reql. It's going to be a mess.
In a word NO
I’m originally from Arkansas (born and raised) I told my mom this is definitely a southern winter which she agreed. This was the most mild I’ve seen in the 6 years I’ve been up here.
Wait for insurance quotes to come up. Ours jumped 25% and when shopping around couldn't find anything cheaper. Called a few agents and apparently michigan has been named the wind and hail state and that's driving the increase.
Yeah almost as if the climate is changing.......
Climate change IS the dramatic change in weather patterns we have been experiencing as of late. It's very sad. Didymo has been found in the AuSable, loss of biodiversity, numerous invasive species killing our trees like ashes and hemlock, and so much more in almost every field of science. It's very sad seeing such beauty degrade to nothingness all while our federal government plays games instead of doing their fucking job.
Yes, that is part of climate change. You'll be fine. A tornado warning still has a very low likelihood of hurting you. Just go into shelter.
I think this is the hardest part of getting over my storm anxiety is because there's no real good shelter in our trailer, even the bathrooms have skylights. I would love to move someplace that has a basement or something but yeah we just can't afford it currently 😞
Not sure why I'm being downvoted.
Even in the "Exteme" category there's only a 60% chance a tornado is within a 25 mile radius of a point. Most of our worst weather events find us in the "moderate" category at a 30% of it being within your 25 mile radius.
The odds of it hitting your trailer are very, very low. However, you should have a plan and be prepared for warnings because very, very low is not zero. You can help your anxiety by knowing that you are as prepared as possible and have a plan and that you're likely sheltering from a non-existent threat.
I'm not sure why you are being downvoted either. I agree we should have a better plan and that would help a lot with my anxiety.
Well, anyway, the data is on that website. My parents house was actually hit by a tornado and everyone was fine. My nephew has bad storm anxiety because of it but it's so incredibly rare to be hit and even when they were (which is insane) they were all fine. You'll be fine.
It’s probably because you attributed it to climate change Vs La Niña
best idea would be to check the Storm Prediction Center's reports. They outline areas where they expect extreme weather, and what you want to be alert for is when they mark a hatched area on the map near where you live.
The Portage Tornadoes from roughly a week ago were within 25 miles of the upper range of the hatched area they marked, which extended basically to the Indiana-Michigan border.
With this is mind, you do not need to be fearful. Instead, be prepared. Have a storm shelter in mind that you can travel to, whether it's a sturdy public building like a mall, or even a friend or relative's house who has a basement.
Weather can be unpredictable, so it's most important to have a plan for what you'll do to stay safe.
Oh, and I feel the need to add this -- vote Democrat. Not for anything in particular, but because the Republican party has announced as part of Project 2025 that they want to dismantle the NOAA and other forecasting services, to sell them off to the private market.
Nah man. Just you. /s
Not really, I remember way more tornados in the 90’s and early 00’s growing up. It’s just we’ve had a slow period and not many tornados the past 10 years or so, so it seems like this isn’t normal, but I remember much more stronger storms years ago.
The only big difference I see now, is our very mild and snowless winters. That is definitely a new trend.
Yes, the extremes in weather are a direct result of climate change. It will keep getting more extreme as it gets worse.
Yes. That's what global warming is
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What is a landspout? How is this different from a tornado?
Idk, I’m 63 years old now and I remember absolute terrifying thunder storms and tornado warnings when I was younger. As far as winter and snow, I also remember huge snowfalls. I also remember winters with hardly any snow much like last winter. The heat everyone is complaining about isn’t anything new. I remember 90* weather back in the day. I built sea walls on Lake Michigan back in the 80’s and we had record high water back then. The water level dropped in the 90’s then we were in a panic they the lakes were going to dry up. I also remember having my boat out on Lake Michigan in late December and back in the water February. I think it goes in 10-20 year cycles. But I could be wrong.
I’m 64 and definitely do not remember any winters like last winter. I do agree that the lakes fluctuate in levels, source my husband was an engineer on the freighters for 39 years. Lake levels determine how much cargo they can load. The weather in Northern Lower Michigan as a whole seems to be changing. I’ve actually climbed Hogs back in Marquette on Christmas Day and there wasn’t any snow. 2x in the past 7 years. It seems odd to me.
Yeah I hear you. I have a place in Grand Marais that usually gets killer snowfall. Back in 2012-13 ish we had a very low snow year up there. We didn’t get the sleds out till the end of January and it was gone by mid March. The year after that we got slammed and got snow on Halloween and it lasted till May.
Yes, it’s due to climate change; just as experts predicted
Yes it is. And scientists have been telling you that for the last 20+ years. How you managed to avoid that information is bewildering.
Nah. Seems about right to me.
It was 85 and sunny all day, then we had giant droplet thunderstorms by 6pm.
Earlier this year (and quite a few other years), there were storm clouds, sunshine, rain and hail all at the same time.
That stuff has been happening here for at least the past 40 years. Par for the course.
No, quite the opposite. Back in the 1980s we had springs full of tornado warnings, and winters packed with dense snow. Now neither of those exist in Michigan.
I am 65 and the weather has never been the same every year some are better than others , the earth hasn't stopped aging and changing so I expect that some weather will be worse than others sometimes.
No.
Great addition to the conversation. Grats!
I love looking at other contributions that people like this make, it all just makes sense.
I'm reminded of Idiocracy
I don't think you can be classified as a sentient being if you can't see the results of climate change. You are definately paying for it in insurance, etc.
Climate change causes extreme weather (I.e tornado). I believe globally we are beyond the tipping point and will be getting more and more extreme weather much more frequently. As the rising temperature cause more ocean life to die, permafrost to thaw (which will release HUGE amounts of co2).
Climate scientists have been warning about this for decades and we did nothing. The damage is irreversible and it is very unlikely that we will even be able to slow it.
You said you understand and believe climate change is real, but then post a question directly contradicting your “understanding “
Cyclical!
The increased solar activity can cause tornadoes, and also earthquakes (new madrid fault line). An eclipse is also an event that can help instigate extreme weather events. We happen to be in a massive solar cycle that ends next year, and had an eclipse just go over our heads. Fact check me if I'm wrong please, I know a couple things- but am not an expert.
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On a sort of related note, Michigan actually has changed to a warmer vegetation hardiness zone due to the measured warming.