www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/06/30/lichtman-dems-replace-biden/74260967007/
Historian who predicted 9 of the last 10 election results says Democrats shouldn't drop Joe Biden
Opinion/AnalysisFor those wondering, the only time he didn't get it right was when he predicted Al Gore, but then the Supreme Court stole the election and gave it to Bush.
He got a lot of flak for predicting Trump would beat Hilary in 2016, but sadly came out right in the end. So his analysis is very accurate.
Sooo, predicted 10* out of the last 10 elections.
Pretty much.
the keys hold out if you keep applying them to older elections, for example if you look at lbj and apply the keys, he still would've lost. Apply it to nixon's relection, they keys still predicted his win re-election
- Party Mandate: True. The Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives in the 1970 midterm elections.
- Contest: True. Nixon faced no serious opposition for the Republican nomination.
- Incumbency: True. Nixon was the sitting president.
- Third Party: True. There was no significant third-party campaign.
- Short-term Economy: True. The economy was not in recession during the election campaign.
- Long-term Economy: True. Economic growth during Nixon’s term was strong.
- Policy Change: True. Nixon’s administration implemented significant policies, including the opening of relations with China and the establishment of the Environmental Protection Agency.
- Social Unrest: False. There was significant social unrest, particularly related to the Vietnam War and civil rights movements.
- Scandal: False. While the Watergate scandal had begun, it had not yet fully emerged as a major issue during the 1972 election.
- Foreign/Military Failure: True. There were no major foreign or military failures.
- Foreign/Military Success: True. Nixon achieved significant foreign policy successes, including the aforementioned opening of relations with China and détente with the Soviet Union.
- Incumbent Charisma: False. Nixon was not particularly charismatic.
- Challenger Charisma: True. George McGovern, the Democratic challenger, was not considered charismatic or a national hero.
Al Gore not becoming President might be one of the single worst outcomes in US politics that shaped the last 20 years.
Would also be probably a totally different story for the wars in the middle east
And Alito wouldn't be on the court.
Agreed. Undermined democracy and furthered the country into chaos just to line their pockets. We need to start offing people before it's too late for the enviroment
If Gore won, there is no guarantee we get Obama. A conservative could have swept in depending on the candidates. Could’ve been McCain or who knows. Without Bush being so unpopular at the end, the results are unpredictable. Maybe a version of the Tea Party forms sooner under Gore. Maybe the country teeters toward radicalism sooner.
A lot of “ifs” with history even if Gore would’ve been better than Bush in those immediate years.
I don’t think this is your point but it’s important to not focus on anyone predictions either to get up and vote.
If anyone thinks that someone who is disappointed in Biden is going to vote for Trump instead I'd like to hear their perspective. The guys are such polar opposites I don't see how anyone can be "undecided".
Exactly. I do not believe Trump gained voters after Jan 6. I do not believe he GAINED voters after whining about a stolen election for four years. I do not believe he GAINED voters when he was convicted of felonies and I especially don't think he gained voters from his debate performance. Once you understand this, you understand that everything you've been seeing since he was convicted and after the debate is astroturfing. They're paying for polls. They're trying to discourage you from voting. They're going for APATHY. Don't fall for it.
the kind of people watching the debate for substance did not like trump
the kind of people watching for entertainment already made their minds up
Anyone looking for substance from the debate had to be comatose the last six years. Truly. I was just trying to give my son a tempered view of politics, not wanting him to become a rabid “team sports” follower despite my opinion of the current environment, he should be open to maybe 30 years from now the Whigs and the Tories are the options and there’s nuance.
Anyway, I told him that growing up, it seemed like there were people on both sides who at least presented the veneer of debating are we treating the disease, or a symptom, when discussing any given public issue, and even giving the benefit of the doubt there may not be a clear answer.
I turned off the radio when the commentary tried insisting “Trump had a solid grasp of the facts, unlike…”
I remember in school, we were assigned to write little responses to a topic starter, and then read classmates’ responses and provide comments. I would comment on the “This topic is complex and many people have many opinions,” empty air marshmallow essays and get critiqued it. Well, here we are, living in a world where people can’t tell the difference between food and marshmallows.
Nice reply
There some wealthy people who are enablers of Trump like those who enable hitler. Only the people can stop Trump.
Everyone has made up there mind, just like 2020. It's 'for Trump' or 'not Trump'.
Truth!
Don't forget him killing off part of his voting base during Covid.
I died from Covid just to own the libs
I died of windmill cancer.
This is important too. It's why Democrats keep over performing polls. Or at least I think it's a part of the reason.
Almost as many Americans died to COVID than in every war, ever
Imagine how many would have been saved if someone competent was in charge.
1.14M to COVID - all wars 1.18M off by a Korea… but give it another year and COVID should creep ahead
I am angry at the avoidable COVID deaths but was skeptical of the comparison. But it looks legit. American deaths:
- 9/11: 3K
- Vietnam: 58K
- Korea: 36K
- WW1: 116K
- WW2: 405K
- American Civil War: 618K
- =============
Covid: estimated 1+ million. That's a 9/11 every day. Or more than two WW2's.
Then also consider that the USA deaths per capita were among the highest in the developed world. We had twice the per capita deaths compared to UK or Canada. So it's not an unlucky virus, it's lack of leadership.
So many avoidable deaths with proper policy and messaging. Enough that you would think we lost a war. Forget about party affiliation, people should be outraged at his incompetence and not giving him a second chance at leadership.
The worst part is that COVID deaths are very likely undercounted.
Yeah and they keep revising them down to further undercount dying from Covid.
Hopefully a few more go before election time
I truly believe the goal is to get people so depressed about this election so we don’t show up to vote. Trump has a solid base that’s gonna support him long after he’s dead.
Yep. That's exactly what it is. Don't pay attention at all, just go vote in November. That's what I'm doing. None of my votes are changing. Democrats straight down the ticket. It's the only real choice.
I will vote early.
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1d
Exactly. And when it comes down to it, Jake Tapper cares about his money and his job more than he cares about this country. If he cares he wouldn't have tolerated that traitor lying like that. That's how I know. He's an ACTOR. He's acting like a Walter Kronkite type character. He's playing at it, and not measuring up. "Journalists" in this country should be spit on. They help he fascists. They aren't on our side. When it comes down to it Jake Tapper cares more about the zeroes in his bank account than anything.
Him gaining voters has never been and is not the problem. He will never gain more ground beyond the MAGAs and die-hard GOPers.
The problem is Democrats NOT voting and instead "sitting it out". Because they believe some damn polls, damn opinion pieces, some damn whatever. They did so in 2016 and they are apparently stupid enough to consider doing it again.
You don't even need more folks than you had 8 years ago. Let the undecided be undecided - they're beyond help if they still don't get that holding back a vote to make room for a deranged fucking psychopath isn't a good idea.
So everyone who doesn't want Trump MUST GO AND VOTE BIDEN. That's THE ONLY thing that matters. Spread the word and be very aware of what you will - not might, will - lose if you don't.
You are not voting for the next 4 years. No one cares what happens between 2024-2028. You are voting for your next 20, 30, 40 years. You are voting for a semi-functioning government.
If you think they "can't take it all away" --> Germany ca 1933. A functioning democracy descending into fascism and war because of one awful excuse for a human being. Who, mind you, was quasi-elected too. You are damn fucking close to a repeat of that. And no I'm not being dramatic.
I live in Alabama, my vote for President quite literally won’t matter in this state, yet I will still go and vote regardless because it’s important.
local elections too!
those make a difference and the little elections/differences are what the bigger ones are built on down the line.
Yeah that’s the main reason I get out and vote. I know statewide elections I basically don’t matter but state and local I do!
hang in there friend, and way to keep up the good fight!
Don’t underestimate how much a failing department of education has dumbed down the population over the past few decades
He lost by 2 million votes the first time and 8 million the 2nd time (even though he had more votes for himself the 2nd time). Americans know he's trash. They told him twice. Republicans lie about how popular they are. they have to.
The problem is there's like 5-6 States that decide the presidency. The electoral college is a garbage system, it was intended to be that way to prevent the people from actually deciding who is president.
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1d
It will all come down to a few thousand voters in a handful of states.
What can we do? We can write postcards to voters in swing states.
The Progressive Turnout PAC will:
... mail you free postcards, voter lists and instructions with proven message options. You’ll provide the stamps and mail the postcards to voters in October.<<
For doubters, yes, it's an effective strategy. See: https://www.turnoutpac.org/postcards-faq/.
Phone banking is helpful, too, and they have a program for that, too.
I'm from Minnesota. We always vote here. It's in our DNA. Seriously, look up our stats, I'm always so proud.
While political parties do pay for some polls, the sort that we see on 538 and other websites re: the Presidential race are conducted by newspapers and polling agencies.
For the former, it is something to report and also a way to gain familiarity since other news agencies report on it. For the latter, it is marketing to sell their polling services.
What a drastic simplification and misunderstanding of polling.
Source: me. Someone who has run polling houses for both political campaigns and the media.
I wholeheartedly agree. And just think of how many voters he has lost since 2020. Either due to Covid deaths or old age, women being disenfranchised with the overturning of Roe and so much more.
Biden won undecided because of the debate, not Trump. Its a win for Biden.
I also don’t think he gained voters after COVID ripped through his base…
There talking about CEO and business leaders siding with Trump I don't belive the Chaos and lawlessness That would follow- a Trump presidency Is good for business And there's no doubt in my mind that Trump would follow the game plan of Vladimir Putin and black mail and threaten and suck as much wealth out of thease corperations as he possibly could
the problem is not Trump gaining voters. it is biden loosing them, and most not due to his age.
100%. This seems like the media making up drama for clicks
Feels like Clinton's buttery males all over again
Or when she coughed and they all thought she was dying
Buttery males!!! Hahahah OMG I love it!! Take my upvote!
So basically what they always do.
Which is why you should believe nothing you read and instead move your ass and vote. Not chill out and think "aw it won't happen again".
Election is not really won by turning vote, but by making people actually bother to cast their vote. So if Biden wants to win he needs to make people feel like it is worth the effort, that is all really.
Go vote or don’t complain about the result kind of thingy.
Also, switching up makes them look dysfunctional and like their panicking. They should lean strong into their faith in Biden, his Administration, and their dedication to keeping their policies going strong regardless of what happens.
They can even press Trump on the very same things: what would your cabinet stand for? What is your plan if your health begins to decline? Can you state the presidential order of succession? Are you aware such a thing exists? Can we get a guarantee you won't give those positions to family members? What is your criteria for administration appointees?
Etc, etc, etc. Democrats can easily drive the point home that a Trumpless Republican party descends into chaos, while a Bidenless Democratic party continues to govern as the Constitution intended and as our country has in the past.
It's kinda past the time for any of this anyway.
For me though, I would have long ago switched out Kamala for someone more exciting like Newsom.
This election, for me, is who is going to appoint the right judges should a vacancy happen. Conservative judges did so much wrong just the past week for me to know that I don’t want any federalist justices near the supreme courts.
That’s not the issue. You’re probably correct in that the overwhelming majority of 2020 Biden voters would never vote for TFG. The issue at stake here is voter enthusiasm - will enough Biden 2020 voters sit this election out because they don’t think he’s fit for office in order for TFG to win? It wouldn’t take that many due to the distribution of electoral college votes.
I'm pretty sure the GOP's fight to remove the rights of women, minorities, or basically anyone that is not a straight white male will make up for any lack of enthusiasm about Biden. Project 2025 is scary as fuck. Imagine if all of the undocumented workers are rounded up and removed. Just from an economic standpoint, you think inflation is bad now? The freedom of religion evaporates as we will no longer be considered a secular nation. Climate science will become whatever Trump with a Sharpie decides it is. And the federal government will be a tool for big business, more so than it is already. We will literally, not figuratively, have guys like Roger Stone, Steve Bannon and Steven Miller setting policy.
A large minority of our country wants this because they can't see past what the hear on Fox news I guess, but a majority of Americans understand what's at stake. I understand your point, but I don't believe a bad showing at a debate carries that much water. If it does...we're fucked anyway.
Exactly. The same reasons why people voted for Biden last election are still the same reasons to vote Democrat again but even more so as we have seen the real effects of having a conservative-majority SCOTUS. We need to roll back the GOP judgments and set new precedent sso in court. At stake is the Civil Rights Act and protection of everyone except white heterosexual men.
Children are also at stake. If the GOP gets their way, the Department of Education will be eradicated and right to public education will be replaced by a voucher system for private schools. If people think college tuitions are jaw dropping, just wait until the GOP sells K-12 to the private sector.
I am afraid that a lot of voters don't draw the logical (right) conclusions that you do, but will vote out of emotion. They are mad and then there's the guy that claims to have a solution for everything...
The MAGA voters will stick with Trump until he croaks (and dude deserves the most painful death for what he’s done to the country). But I definitely think there are a lot of suburban women who are questioning what they want for themselves and their daughters.
I have hope. I don’t have certainty because the country is a third certifiable crazy but I have hope the rest of the country will vote to protect their rights.
I hope so as well...
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2d
Ya seems like voter turnout is always the first strategic consideration, and actually getting people to switch sides is less statistically significant.
People are still discounting how pissed off women and sane men are after Roe / Dobbs.
Turnout since then has been very high, and I don't see that changing because Biden didn't look awesome at a debate. People are voting against anything and everything GOP.
Roevember is coming.
I say yes. Mostly because every election since Roe has had huge turnout from those same voters.
Everybody get out and vote BLUE!
You should definitely check out the Ezra Klein sub. I can’t tell if it’s their naïveté or if they’re just really that short sighted. Or dumb.
I listen to Ezra Klein’s podcast regularly. I am sure you do too if you go to the sub. But for those out of the loop: Several months ago, Ezra Klein called for a brokered convention several months ago. At the time, most of the audience revolted against the idea for various reasons. I was personally against it because it put the choice into the hands of power brokers. And it had Ezra giving this “media will save the people by telling them about the new candidates” narrative. I never bought it. Now, the sub is filled with doomer posting. How much of it is genuine? I don’t know. But I unsubbed because I fear this will be the sub until November.
Unless they are very very stupid
I think you need to realize how apolitical the average American is. Most voters know very little about either candidate and will make their choice based on ad sound bites. I suspect many just try to pick the winner so they can be on the winning team.
It's not a question of who people are going to vote for, the question is who is going to vote, and Biden isn't exactly getting people on their feet.
If anyone is going to ask “how did this happen” after the November elections, I’m going to sit in a corner and cry. The writing is on the wall, now more than ever, isn’t it?
Nobody is undecided. The news media treats the election like a horse race for ratings. Keeping people fed on a steady stream of polls that keep showing how tight the race is and how the outrage du’jour is swinging the polls from one candidate to the other every other day keeps people coming back for more. News media could spend about 3 hours reporting on all the substantive issues and be done with it between now and November…but the 24 hour news cycle demands outrage.
I don't see how anyone can be "undecided".
I was scrolling through some ig post with post-debate quotes from "undecided voters." One was a 60-year-old woman who listed as a "nursing student." No offense to someone who's trying in life, but all I could think was "these are the 'decision-makers' whose opinion we should be considering?"
Undecided voters are consistently the most uninformed, ignorant people in the country making their decisions for the ridiculous superficial reasons.
There's no good options here, but after giving it some thought, I think the dangers of ditching Biden are greater than keeping him.
President Biden, on his worst day, is a better man than the convicted felon on the other side. The country is coming to realize that and what it means to the future of this country.
I would vote for a plate of rotting roadkill over a wannabe dictator.
And if he can't finish his term? Kamala Harris on her worst day, is a better woman than the convicted felon on the other side. Win-win!
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2d
If Trump wins, the fundamental apparatuses of the federal government will be so broken after another 4 years of him that I can't see how the USA will be able to function for much longer. The states that are more economically robust will probably be able to weather the storm but a good chunk of the country is going to go right into the shitter. Balkanization will almost inevitably follow, it really seems like the only way forward.
People in New York and California aren't going to allow themselves to be led around by raving lunatics in an ineffective federal government for forever. All those conservatives will get their wish I guess, lots of states will become independent in all but name before the halfway point of this century I'd guess.
Is Biden leading among likely voters in the swing states?
That is the only thing that matters. Getting 70% of the NY vote doesn’t matter.
Impossible to tell until elections. And I would def not trust ANY poll telling you one way or another, just vote.
Whether he's leading at this point or not is still not important. The incumbent is often behind at this point in time. The polls are going to get more indicative in a few months.
Polls are irrelevant at this point.
If you ranked every single one of the 250 million or so adults in America by their suitability to be president, Donald Trump would end up at the very bottom of the list. Almost anyone would be better. You'd have to get to serial killers in prison or something before you found someone who would be worse.
We also need to remember, we’re not just voting for president, but for their administration, the people around them, and vitally, the Supreme Court justices appointed under them.
I'll take old, slow, thoughtful, and intelligent...and with a very competent cabinet over the cult leader, treasonous, adulterous felon, with more counts pending, and the bottom of the barrel administration....
Any day...
Anything is better than Trump. Even if Biden were to pass (god forbid) his corpse would be a better leader. Plus they could do a weekend at Bernie’s thing
Substance over optics every time!
Man when Trump was going on his "you should have fired more people. The fact you didn't fire people means they're terrible" I was begging Biden to say something like "a smart boss doesn't hire incompetent people in the first place" or "if everyone in your cabinet stinks you should check the bottom of your shoe".
He missed some juicy comeback opportunities but he still had some good quips. I loved Biden talking about scholars saying Trump was the worst in history and Trump's response was along the lines of "well the people that I hired to work for me say I'm the best president in the history of the country. So there!"
Also loved(hated) the irony of Trump calling Biden the biggest liar he knows after lying on every single topic leading up to that statement.
Never voted because i never liked my options. But trump's shenanigans has done a excellent job for securing my vote for biden
Age being the biggest factor it seems, be that if he would be alive for the next 4 years or if in such decline 25th is used, ppl act like there is no VP.
Now would be a good time to prop up Kamala if DEM committee is worried.
Dance with the one that brought you, and don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good. We got this.
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2d
Almost. I voted against Trump the last time. Thos time Im voting for Biden. He has more than proven himself.
I’m also voting for Biden’s pretty decent cabinet. I don’t give a shit if Biden is falling asleep during his morning debriefs as long as his cabinet keeps the wheels turning.
Trump was falling asleep DURING HIS OWN CRIMINAL TRIAL! His party isn't telling him to drop out.
I would have voted blue either way, and I wanted multiple people over Biden in 2020. But he’s been really good, so I’m happy to vote for him this year.
Popular vote tally says....
That is certainly the biggest issue although he has been doing a perfectly decent job here
Biden received nineteen million votes in the 2020 primaries. Sanders came in second with nine million.
Even in 2024, while running unopposed, Biden received fourteen million votes.
Biden has proven himself and done a good job. He has passed significant legislation.
Fuck Trump
Look, if I found out that Joe Biden was actually a potato, I’d still vote for him over Trump. He’s not a threat to democracy.
Part of the problem is the “drop Biden” crowd insist on Gavin Newsom, as though passing over Kamala Harris to nominate yet another white guy - the very person whose job it is to take over if something happens to Biden - isn’t going to piss off the Black Americans who make up the core of the Democratic Party.
trump is a fckign convicted felon and rapist. I mean wtf would you think
edit: GO VOTE!
People who sit out elections deserve the country they get.
The problem is we ALL get the country THEY deserve.
True. They don’t get it though
No…no they don’t, we get it right in the neck.
I'll rather vote for a piece of shit than vote trump
What's the difference?
A piece of shit won't do nothing
No one who voted against Trump in 2020 is going to suddenly switch sides. And if you understand what’s at stake in 2020 you understand even better now that Roe is gone and Biden being old isn’t going to change that
The first debate wasn't Biden vs Trump, it was Biden vs Biden and he hit a foul ball. He can bring it back, but I think they are balking at the prospect of Harris unnecessarily. It is not too late to change horses. Arguments that Harris doesn't poll well are trite in that no VP polls well, because they exist for this very scenario.
The Republicans should drop Donald Trump.
This is an article only to write an article. There are only two viable options. It can only be Trump or Biden.
I don't see the great benefit of dropping an incumbent president who won the primary votes to put in...who exactly?
Ignore it, it’s illogical. Media loves Trump.
Really, not running an incumbent when there are no obvious other options would be a bad idea? Shocker!
Who has actually called for Biden to drop out other than CNN, Time and the NYT?
Have any prominent democrats called for him to step out of the race?
Nope. It’s all media drama.
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1d
You are not a prominent democrat. Biden dropping out now would guarantee a Trump victory. It's far too close to the election to try to switch now. Who would even replace him?
I mean, me and all of my friends upon watching the debate? This entire thread is just attempted propaganda. But if you watched that debate and it didn’t convince you that Biden was gonna lose, I don’t know what you were watching. It was my worst nightmare. The dude had a tremor. His MOUTH WAS OPEN the entire time he was listening to Trump. He looked decrepit.
If the GOP wouldve an okeish candidate, i would understand the idea of a switch, but its Trump.. if you vote for a criminal guy, who works for russia, wants to make money and destroy democracy, because biden is old.. you are the problem.
34 Felonies is fine, but 1 unremarkable debate and the media is acting like it's the end of the World.
Vote and don't 2016 my 2024
This is situation is unprecedented and the stakes are too high to fuck up. Biden’s look and performance on the debate was startling. I hate that we are where we are but I think he should definitely step down. Someone acting in his manner at his age at any workplace would be asked to do the same. This is too important to fuck up and he just doesn’t inspire confidence for anyone.
This historian was one of my grad school professors. He’s the real deal. He always stressed to us that debates matter 0% when it comes to impacting an election. I have faith that he remains right.
This guy has talked me off the ledge since the debate. He's right. The incumbent has an advantage already. Replacing Biden would lose a key.
I’ve watched him the last 2 elections. His theory is solid and makes sense. Let’s see who he predicts and if they win. I agree that to get rid of Biden is not a good idea. He also said debates pretty much have zero effect on who is elected. I’m not thrilled with Biden’s debate performance but more angry that Trump got to lie almost the whole time. too many believe it’s the truth. People use Google for everything under the sun except fact checking. And those that do, don’t always know where to find solid info versus opinions.
It’s so frustrating because I also see people pushing for third party. If we vote third party, we’re basically splitting the votes for Biden and that will cause Trump to win.
We need to think critically for our future as a nation and look up Project 2025
And the third party candidates are as bad as trump anyway.
Still voting for Biden
Melbar said Biden would have to choose to bow out but one of his guests said no and the convention could decide. I'm not sure who is right.
It would be monumentally stupid to drop him. Just play into the narrative that he is a Reagan like figurehead with a super capable cabinet and excellent results digging us out of inflation and avoiding a big recession.
I would stand in line to vote for Biden if he was on oxygen in a wheelchair. We fought nazi’s once we can do it again.
Biden is a competent President. Trump is an incompetent school captain.
Still plan to support President Biden. I can't think of any positives with the alternative
Keep in mind this one critical fact: you are voting for a President AND an entire Administration. trumps administration and his appointees were one enormous scandal after another. Only one former trump cabinet member is endorsing him. He claims they were all dumb people, unworthy of those positions, yet he hired them.
We can't lose sight over the real consequences if orange shitgibbon gets back iin.
President Biden got an essay question right off the bat basically bullshit. Hell i couldn't watch, but after the lies spewing out of a sewer hole , no wonder Biden was flabbergasted. CNN did a bang up job normalizing a deceitful, sneaky, narcissistic asshole . ......now look where we are. Asking a moral, upstanding honest man to step aside while they usher in the Christo fascist
Part of the electorate has the memory of a goldfish. A single bad debate will be forgotten. But Biden should’ve never been there in the first place. There’s no debating a well rehearsed liar.
I’m seeing people who are finally reading project 2025 and they’re appalled. If they were ever in trump’s camp they’re not now. Trump says he has no intention on banning birth control. According to project 2025 they will have FDA rescind approval. Abortion will no longer be considered health care. (?) It is a lot to read but I highly recommend everyone read it. Start with the area of government most important to you.
I keep telling people this. If the incumbent drops out, Trump has already won.
This is just plain logic. Anyone who says something else hasn't thought it through or is trying to sow chaos.
This is a ginned up nothing from a media that needs eyeballs to get money and the people who profit from apathy. This race is still two old men who are past their primes but have such opposed viewpoints that the choice is and has been clear to everyone for a long while. Nothing is going to change and 99% of the people have been locked into their choice for a while. I do not trust these media types with their “anonymous sources”.
Don't vote for Joe Biden. Vote for his cabinet. Vote for his potential Supreme Court. Vote to continue democracy in the United States, as flawed as it is. It's the same action, yes, but it's a vote you can feel good about. You don't even have to hold your nose.
I didn't vote for Hillary in 2016 and I didn't vote for Joe Biden in 2020. I just filled a bubble with their name next to it to try and get some of what I wanted.
Incremental gains create progress.
Holy shit, this article is close to the definition of “my model doesn’t include this, so therefore it’s unimportant.”
Dude didn’t even say that Biden is predicted to win in his model, just that debate performance isn’t in his model.
This is also hilariously underpowered for a predictive model. Just remember that, statistically, there are people who will be the market ten years in a row, and you won’t know if it’s because they’re good or lucky.
FWIW, Trump is already favored in Nate Silver’s model to win the electoral college by 2-1, and Biden stands a real chance to lose the NPV. In 2020, Biden underperformed the final polls by 4%, and his current national polls only put him up by 1.5% at the moment.
I know a lot of people don’t want to hear this, but there’s a rational, non-partisan, plausible case that Democrats lose whether they replace him or not. If they keep Biden, I suspect that Republicans win EC convincingly and NPV by a moderate amount (1-2%).
We know and anyone spouting off to the contrary is a disingenuous MAGA trying to perpetuate the Biden is too old narrative.
They are both too old.
Biden is an honest old guy who can delegate to competent advisors.
Trump is a dishonest old narcissist who refuses the advice of competent people and surrounds himself with the vilest advisors possible.
I can't believe I read this damn article trying to find which election Lichtman failed to predict and then still had to go to wikipedia.
Which one did they get wrong? Was it 2016?
Bush vs Al Gore
Predicted, accurately? Or just predicted bc everyone is predicting
Accurately. The 1 outlier was Bush/Gore for obvious reasons.
Fine, but please VOTE
The perfect antidote to someone who promises to destroy our country is a person who can’t destroy our country
If Biden is completely incapacitated, I'm still voting for him over Trump just to protect our democracy
It’s only rich people that are crying.
Right. Vote him in. Worse comes to worse we get Harris.
None of those candidates were too old to do the job though
Let me preface this by saying that I’ve been a Biden supporter since the Obama administration. In 2020, I thought a steady handed moderate was a good way to bring the country back together. I will vote for him in this election because the alternative is unthinkable.
That said, in my opinion, that man is not simply suffering with a “cold” or challenged by his speech impediment. We all know that the presidency takes its toll and due to his already advanced age, it has clearly taken more of one for him. If he actually cares about this country rather than his legacy alone, he would not only drop out of the race, but resign now. It’s more than just lacking energy and being physically hampered by age. He was conflating distinct topics and losing his train of thought mid-sentence. That cannot be. This election is too important.
Thank you USA Today for this uplifting piece of journalism. Yes, you are bland and somewhat low common denominator, but God bless you today. I needed this.
People who are saying we should drop Joe Biden are undermining the democracy intentionally or otherwise.
Also, anyone who actually knows how politics works instead of just reacting to social media.
Still voting for Biden!!
Its his administration and locally voting domicratic officals making sure that the senate and house are democratic!
THAT IS OUR GOAL!!! MAKE IT HAPPEN AMERICA ITS UP TO ALL OF US!!!.
If you know anyone talking about skipping the election talk to them about how important it is to vote democrat this election and buy them lunch on election day.
Agreed, Biden had a cold and one bad night, but the guy next to him was "healthy" and spewing nonsense.
Take a look at Biden's speech during the rally the next day.
This is about so much more than Biden vs. Trump, it's about preserving democracy.
Perspective people. He had one bad night. He has the incumbent advantage is copping some “protest vote” in the polls as current government. But I think enough of the swingers won’t bring themselves to mark nut job tyrannical Trump to get Biden home.
I’ve been concerned about Biden his entire time in office. Not concerned enough to give Trump another chance to double down on the shit show he started in his last term.
We’re in a catch 22 where it seems like apparently anybody could beat Trump except for Biden, but also nobody else really seems to stand a chance.
“Debate performance isn’t factored into my model so my model says this is a non-issue”. Excellent work bud
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I think the polling is making it clear we all watched the same debate, but the pundits and media need a headline and just want to assume the unthinking masses will equate Bidens apparent age as a weakness compared to Trumps ignorant schtick.
I don't think this debate changed anyone's mind about their candidate, the one they already know they're going to vote for in November.
It also didn't help that the media was lowering the bar for Trumps success leading up to the debate and CNN letting Trump ramble on while cutting Joe off was obvious to everyone(although Joe did end his answers all on his own more than once, ceding the ground to the sleazy salesman)
This very well could be our last election
Voting Biden for sure.
Dropping Joe Biden would put Trump in office. That's the same way we got crooked nixon.
Maybe there are those who uncomfortable with Biden’s age, because if he dies in office, we’ll have a woman of color as president. We have so many misogynistic and racist Americans.
Here is the DL:
There is no sweetheart candidate. Ever.
Biden has been an overall good president in the last four years. Mainly cleaning up the former guy’s massive mess.
If the former guy gets back in the White House, our country is doomed. This is not hyperbole.
What are the odds this narrative is just being boosted by troll farms?
But what does he say about changing the VP?
No one cares obviously-the only thing that matters is the toxic news grind-the worse the news the more $ they make when everyone tunes in-thats all that really matters
The corporate democrats are floating the preposterous idea of replacing Biden because that’s what their rich corporate masters want. The rich and corporations hate Biden for his anti trust agenda.
https://www.usa.gov/register-to-vote
This is not the election to sit home.