BOEING THOUGHTS

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Pre-COVID stock price was overhyped due to a decade of Boeing spending $43b on share buybacks. Today, every commercial production line is on literal fire and can't procure parts to actually meet current production rates, let alone continuously ramp up as the executives want.

Boeing's largest labor union is also looking for a big contract this year after a 16-year contract (with 2 terrible extensions) - a strike is likely and honestly the company needs one to let suppliers catch up a little. During the MAX grounding and COVID, the company let the top end of its work force (mechanics and engineers) walk with early retirement instead of hitting the bottom seniority with big layoffs, as would have been typical. However, the company didn't bother to capture and transfer that knowledge and experience, and has been begging many of those people to return temporarily ever since. The blue-collar workforce is now very young compared to its historical value despite the 100+ year history, and a ton of basic issues have popped up in production due to the lack of experience. When I hired in early last decade, most of the people around me were 20+ years. Now? Most are 5 years or less...

Defense is running negative margins on basically every recent product because they're mostly fixed-price contracts, and the company can't engineer successful anymore. Everything is running one or more billion dollars over the expected development cost, which the company has to eat.

I can continue all day on random tangents but idk if it's a good investment. 0% of my 401k is in company stock, though I am putting 1% into the new(ish) ESPP for the meager 5% discount. IMO, the company only offered it to inject employee's cash back into itself, lmao. I think they're holding $50-60b worth of debt now, since 2020.

-Source: I'm a current employee of more than a decade.

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How Boeing inspects their planes ^

I think there are better bargains/value to be found in the market then Boeing.

Its not just safety issues. Its a culture of bad practices and avoiding safety measures. I would stay away.

Their management culture is deeply fucked. This company won't straighten itself out in 3-4 years. Maybe never.

The reason the stock hasn’t dropped further is that Boeing’s defense businesses are likely going to have good days ahead. I’m pretty optimistic about Boeing’s long term prospects as a whole but the commercial aviation side will be trapped in a negative headline cycle for the next few years.

Meanwhile all the commercial aviation money is being sunk into vaporware supersonic or e-vtol companies. If you want a safer investment in commercial air invest in the leasing companies. Lower airframe production = higher rates for the planes they have.

There’s a reason why their stock is lower than ever……

Have a feeling they will fire their ceo.

Everyone here is talking about deep-seeded management issues, which is all true, but another huge issue here is that they have hundreds of aircraft that were certified by their own “FAA inspectors” that are potentially unfit to fly. Even if they immediately solved their management crisis, there will not be a true decrease in safety related incidents for quite some time.

Wait and see if their astronaut capsule kills everybody on re-entry or not. It's currently stranded at the ISS.

Book value: -$27 per share

:4259::31226:

Stay away from

I'd recommend doing an integrity evaluation.

Put it all on Boeing calls !!!

You can't solve culture in quarters. Lasting change will take years and until that happens, Boeing's product reputation will not improve. The stock may do whatever it wants anyway in the meantime.

Boeing will recover but it hasn't even begun to see it's lowest point.

Boeing are in a really tight spot. As well as the quality issues, they are having big problems certifying new aircraft, and their best selling product is nearing the end of its life cycle. Next generation single aisle will be coming in the next 10 years. Boeing is going to have to fund that development AND get its ability to develop such a project without delays sorted. Airbus learnt from their mistakes made during A380 project, and the A350 is a great aircraft that had a relatively smooth entry into service. I personally don’t see Boeing learning the lessons of their current quality issues or development issues. I still think they have their head in the sand about the damage caused to their reputation. It’s a real shame to see such a great company be destroyed by the money men.

Boeing has been a protected company/industry, and the only reason it hasn’t touched yet the bottom is because Airbus is also stuck for some delivery.

It's trading below pre-pandemic levels because it doesn't pay a dividend anymore and it's been unprofitable for years. It's not even about the recent events, the company's just been in the gutters for a while now.

YOU'RE IN THE WRONG NEIGHBORHOOD BRO

It is a safe bet I would say, given pretty much all possible negatives have been priced in and it is one of the two duo-monopolies with a potential of 10B annual FCF. The demand will not go away anytime soon and they will fix their shit eventually one way or the other. I don’t see much downside from here but God knows when it will form an upside trajectory. Sell puts might be a good strategy to collect some premiums or build some positions at a low price. Or LEAP calls if you want to be more aggressive.

Idk tbh

They aren't going anywhere. But it may be a while before they recover.

Ratherswell invest in Air lease or GE

After the 2 crashes, the planes were grounded and "supposedly" had the most rigorous inspection of all existing plane models. I am an anxious flyer but still flew with Max 9 a couple of times. Despite all that media focus and record inspection on the planes, one plane's door plug exploded in mid-air and was a very lucky moment that a kid didn't die in one of the most fantastic ways in the modern history. And they couldn't even find the records of assemble tasks.

We know all this stuff already. It is no news. My point is that it shows a greater problem with the planes. I don't say they will fall from the sky, but media will keep publishing Beoing related news and we might see more grounding, canceled orders, and any other kind of events that will cause the company to lose billions.

It is not easy to change a culture in the company.

Ha yeah, I think airplanes are transportation of the past and duopolies are bearish. Gov ties too deep to fail and defense contracts through the next 200 years. You should probably short it as hard as you can.

All in per TA

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Apple

I think 3 - 4 years is the right investment horizon for BA

Trash management. The CEO is getting let go - but he is being appointed to the Board. This is pure hubris. They just don't give a F - or he has dirt on them being in on the scam. Either way, don't.

I work there and won't invest in it. They will not have a cent of gains in commercial for quite some time. So unless you are betting on defense contracts, they wont be making money any time soon. You are better off with Apple

At 120$ will think about

...Are those poor astronauts going to be okay?

Too big to fail. Good price point currently. Buy the bad news.

I’m telling you to inverse WSB. I have a 52K position, 300 shares

Fearful when others are greedy. Be greasy when others are fearful!

I’m in for the looooong haul.