www.reddit.com/live/18hnzysb1elcs
/r/WorldNews Live Thread: Russian Invasion of Ukraine Day 841, Part 1 (Thread #987)
Russia/UkraineA Russian civilian walks around a military cemetery in Belgorod, noting a large number of graves of both young and older soldiers. Military helicopters buzz in the background. “Everything is very serious,” the man adds.
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1801385653998862561?t=Dra01aklC6a9_u_icZPjTA&s=19
Non twitter link.
At this rate it will only take several more years for russians to notice how badly this is going for them.
Ukrainian ATACMS strikes methodically wipe out Russian air defense assets all over Russian-occupied Crimea. Those 3 sites have been struck in the last 48h.
Yevpatoriya Sector - Target: S-300PS
- Destroyed 5N63S with RPN 30N6 radar unit
- 2 abandoned 5P85T launcher trailers, likely damaged or destroyed
- Additional gear abandoned, likely damaged/destroyed
Dzhankoy Sector - Target: S-300/400
- Destroyed 48YA6-K1 Long-Range Radar unit
- One abandoned PU type 51P6 launcher
- Burn marks where the other launchers were positioned
Sevastopol Sector - Target: S-400
- Destroyed 92N6 Radar unit destroyed
- One destroyed PU type 51P6 launcher
- One destroyed BAZ-6306 generator unit
It is obvious at this point that the Russian air defense units are shot blind and that Russians have no means in order to prevent this from happening.
https://x.com/Tendar/status/1801338803979743659?t=sE7HvGGxh5nyH4-lD3tXmQ&s=19
They already claimed the drones are invisible so I don't think they see the situation improving in the next couple months.
What S-500 doing?
Thought they moved that system there in order to stop this lol
They have like 2 max. Seems insane to use it there
S500 is probably a wunderwaffe
A fire has broken out at the Sukhoi Design Bureau in Moscow, one of Russia's leading aircraft development companies.
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1801354721283727834?t=hEUcKYjOzAaQKlJ5Hlba5g&s=19
Non twitter link.
The west should repay the sabotage failure and start offering Russian youth/immigrants bitcoin for starting fires.
This is Wild. ZDF does regular opinion polls. On the question of weapons support for Ukraine.
West Germany
Should increase: 44
Stay the same: 28
Should decrease: 24
East Germany
Should increase: 23
Stay the same: 26
Should decrease: 45
The divide is getting more and more pronounced.
If you look at EU elections, in West Germany, CDU convincingly won, with AfD and SPD roughly winning equal amount of votes in distant second place.
Meanwhile in East Germany, AfD is in a high first place, followed by CDU at distant second, which is closely trailed by BSW and the Left (pro-Russian far-left tankies).
At least one calming thought is that West Germany has a population of almost 69 million people, while East Germany only has 16 million people.
It's always so odd comparing political spectrums.
In the U.S. the far right are pro Russia tankies. And what we call left is more like Europe's center/center right.
Because the US has spent almost a century keeping far-left politics from taking hold by Red Scares and neoMcCarthyism (i.e. "anything I don't like is socialist" by today's GOP).
Villification and witch hunts have not been the primary tactics employed for at least the last 40 years.
Shifting the 'Overton Window' by taking extreme positions well outsode it and pulling discourse towards those positions has been a major aspect.
A commitment to polarized discourse has been another, in which there is an explicit unwillingness to even engage in serious debate with others while taking the most extreme positions possible.
This has been aided by a news industry that has been bankrupted on one side by forces such as Google's dominance of and undercutting the economics of advertising (which local news highly relied on), and bought out by wealthy extremist individuals (e.g. Murdoch before, and Musk now) on the other.
Combined with the swing to news-as-entertainment, the result has been a fact-light, polarized, and revenue-focused news aparatus that poisons political discourse and prevents factual information from reaching the masses.
Social media is more of the same, with algorithms unintentionally amplifying extremist views into echo chambers on all sides of a debate.
If it were simple 'neo-Mcarthyism' it would be less concerning. The current state of information access and bad-faith political maneuvres is far more damaging and harder to address.
IMO, all this is ultimately caused by the two party system.
The same forces and dynamics are in play in the rest of the world, but countries with parliamentarism (= more than two relevant parties) do not have the same polarization, deadlock and dysfunction.
all this is ultimately caused by the two party system.
That doesn't help, no.
but countries with parliamentarism (= more than two relevant parties) do not have the same polarization, deadlock and dysfunction.
I'm with you in being in favour of multi-party systems, however ...
Multi-party governments are not synonymous with parliamentary systems. There are countries with 3+ parties in office which do not follow a parliamentary system. (I live in one, in fact.) Meanwhile, countries like Zimbabwe have a parliamentary system but also has a two-party system.
Nor do parliaments prevent dysfunction or polarization. England's politics are quite polarized, and have been for some years. South Africa's multi-party parliament is highly dysfunctional and polarized.
Multi-party systems which do work better tend to be in countries with better social equity and tend to have voting systems that show more respect to the individual's vote, such as proportional voting.
I'd go as far as to say that it is fairer voting systems that lead to multi-party systems that are more likely to reflect the interests of the people, who in turn become more politically engaged.
In Canada, despite having a multi-party parliamentary system, politics are highly polarized and political engagement is pretty horrible. Canada has a horrible voting system and struggles with the same media problems the USA does.
And returning to the USA: the systems of voting are generally broken there as well. Between gerrymandering, the electoral college, first-past-the-post, and various rather dubious trust-breaking systems leads to results that the populace barely trust, and which often lead to distorted results (particularly gerrymandering). This props up the two-party system quite strongly, and while the parties reinforce this status quo, having multiple parties would be unlikely to change it either ... while changing that status quo would quite likely result in an opportunity to create a multi-party government.
All that aside, even in countries with equitable voting, low(er) levels of inequality, good social safety nets, there is a struggle against social media and media conglomeration. There is far too much information interference happening these days. :/
"Meanwhile, countries like Zimbabwe have a parliamentary system but also have a two-party system."
Zimbabwe is basically a one party government with Zanu -PF largely having purged the country of genuine opposition political parties or leaders. Many have fled the country and gone into exile. The current Zimbabwe president was installed through a military coup.
Argentina becoming a relevant (no offense intended to any Argentinians) foreign supporter of Ukraine was really not on my 2024 bingo card.
Millei seems to be doing great job in general.
He also stated that Argentina won't join BRICS either.
It's kinda funny that, as he is working here to stablish good will with the west, he is also sneakily pulling weird crap on Argentina's south border with Chile, like building an Argentinian military base partially on Chilean soil.
Milei's pro-west as hell. His predecessor and competitor was a BRICS simp, but Milei swung the country back towards NATO.
Why are so few emerging economy leaders unabashedly pro-west?
Only Kenya is low key close. Do we ignore them too much? Not take their needs into account?
Like why don’t more want to be productive members of the “rules based order”?
The nations of 'the West' spent the last few centuries taking advantage of the people, culutures, and resources of those countries.
They were treated as vassals, resources to be extracted, or worse, and that significantly damaged the view those populaces have of Western nations and cultures.
For example: the African continent suffered colonization, apartheid, slave trades .. only to be largely abandoned. It did not help with the whole trust factor that the first democratically elected leaders on the continent were assassinated by European / American interests.
This is a bed we have made for ourselves over centuries of truly bad decision making amd inhumane treatment of others in the world.
That does not get undone in one or two generations of being less horrible, nor are such underlying views of entire populaions able to be shifted by simple rational arguments.
Meanwhile, countries like China and Russia, which most of these countries have far less experience with (and therefore far less suspicion of), are swooping in promising massive investment and support, while telling these same people how right they are to suspect The West and not trust them.
They have been expertly exploiting the West's well-earned poor reputation and non-existent trust from these developong nations.
Many such nations who do look towards the West do so out of a desire for the wealth they see there, not so much the political structures.
Not only is that a weak form of bond, it is why e.g. China experimented with the belt-and-roadways program as a way to dump massive economic activitiy into those regions, in an attempt to give those nations what they actually want via shortcut: modernity, infrastricture, and the prosperity that may follow.
Well, now these developing nations are going to learn that ruzzia and China are much worse than West.
From my head: I know about cases when Wagner went on raping and killing spree slaughtering the whole villages in Africa.
It's the same Wagner that loved to get gold and diamond mines as payment.
They've got rebranded to Africa Corps (not joking), but the essence remained the same.
China is also not treating Africans greatly, but not to this extent for now.
At least I've only heard about discrimination and exploitation.
now these developing nations are going to learn that ruzzia and China are much worse than West.
Almost certainly, which is all the more sad :(
Wow, this was so well written and explained. I wish I could send this to a fair few people who don't understand the so-called developing world's mistrust of the West.
Only thing I'd add for the commenter your replied to is if you want a glimpse into how American imperialism worked, I recommend reading 'Confessions of an Economic Hitman'.
The west doesnt pump nearly enough propaganda into them.
They don't like russia based on an objective analysis they do because the kremlin actively corrupts their minds while they are young and easy to manipulate.
They actively astro turf all meme subreddits and especially those related to history where they can go full tankie and say shit like "stalin was right".
I'm certain they also have a presence in a bunch of universities around the world as well. Not sure how big but it's definitely there along their influence of authoritarian political parties.
Yeah, time to update voice of America with the completely unapologetic memes of America.
West drives corruption out of countries. Leaders in developing nations tend to prefer corruption as it lets them and their allies get wealthy and retain power.
Because, name 1 pro Russian foreign government that has ever raised their country out from below the poverty line?
China
When was China ever pro Russia during their emergence as a prominent rising country?
They pulled themselves up through an enormous and reciprocal trade with the west.
They still have very little trade with Russia and don't use any current Russian weapons systems.
They were pro Russia during that time (although you didn't ask that originally, and are now trying to move the goal posts). They raised the country out of poverty at the same time they were pro Russia.
Nah, that's wrong.
China was pro-russia till Stalin's death. Then it started to have disagreements with USSR and they even had a small military border conflict near the end of 1960s.
After that USSR even considered nuking China but US warned USSR not to do it.
So, in 1970s and later China started getting quite close to US.
And that's what helped China to raise from poverty.
So it's just like /u/Sufficient-Grass- said
Yes, Russia had on going trade with China during their economic revolution.
It would be widely considered a minor partner and still is.
Putin wants the USSR back together, China and the USSR were openly hostile.
Euromaidan Press visits an artillery unit at the frontline in the Kharkiv Oblast to provide insights into the current status of ammunition supplies, weaponry, and manpower. On 10 May 2024, Russian forces initiated a major offensive to establish a “sanitary zone” in the Kharkiv Oblast in northeastern Ukraine. Moscow started an armored ground attack with 30,000 troops in Belgorod, Russia. Russian strikes targeted Vovchansk with guided bombs and artillery. Ukraine deployed reinforcements, leading to intense clashes in border areas.
At 4 am, on a cloudy morning, our van drives through empty downtown Kharkiv to the frontline in Vovchansk direction, the hottest spot in Ukraine in the first week of summer 2024. A poster on the road flies by: a portrait of a soldier, caption, “He died for your freedom.”
As a part of its latest assault, Russia has relentlessly attacked the Kharkiv Oblast residential areas. Located only 40 km from the Russian border, the second largest city in the country, Kharkiv maintains a semblance of normality in the face of ongoing destruction. Small towns and villages closer to the Russian border face Russian “scorched earth” strategy. Vovchansk, a town located less than 5 km from the border, is near annihilation.
At a gas station, soldiers drink coffee and smoke, in silence. As the sun rises, faces look pale, tired but determined. The van is struggling over the bumps and holes left by the tanks and military vehicles, passing charred houses, abandoned villages, overturned cars, and the remains of a blown-up bridge. Pine forest is burned here and there. The van goes over a pontoon bridge, the wooden panes making knocking sounds. A deer jumps across the road.
We arrive at the positions of the anti-aircraft missile and artillery division platoon of the 57th motorized brigade deployed in the Vovchansk direction. The birds are chirping in tall trees.
Russians are employing a “meat storms” strategy, sending waves of infantry into assaults and suffering heavy casualties. The outcome of these assaults largely relies on Ukrainian artillery support for their own infantry and the ability to target the concentrations of the adversary’s manpower. Yet, the SAU 122-mm 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer is almost half a century old.
Designed in the Soviet Union, ironically in Kharkiv, and produced in 1976, it is “tired,” says the platoon commander, call sign Michael. In his thirties, athletic and confident, Michael is friendly and eager to talk.
The distance from the front is never easy to define. Frontline is more of a general term: there is no actual line; it is really a gray zone. The howitzer has a maximum fire range of 15.4 km, which means that the Russians are 15 km away or closer within the fire range—perhaps 5-7 km, according to Michael.
The howitzer is dug into the ground, covered with leafy branches, and is shielded by a green-brown camouflage net to protect it from aerial reconnaissance and kamikaze drones. Several rows of dark green shells shine in the sun on the grass next to it.
“American ammo,” says one of the soldiers. Research, however, reveals fog of war: the ammunition might be delivered by the US but is produced and bought from other states that prefer to stay undisclosed. Provoking the Kremlin in 2024 is not on many countries’ agenda.
A pile of old, rusty Soviet ammunition across the lawn evokes World War II. The ammunition comes from around the Soviet bloc and was supplied to the Ukrainian army by the allies. Soldiers also recycle used brass cartridges to make DIY ammunition. In addition, Ukraine started producing shells, according to Michael.
Two soldiers, equipped with binoculars, are watching out for drones by the side of posadka, the stripe of greenery. Orlans, Russian reconnaissance drones, are frequent guests here, almost always followed by Lancets, kamikaze drones, and sometimes FPV (First-Person View) drones carrying explosives. Remotely piloted aircraft are widely used by Russians and Ukrainians for reconnaissance, surveillance, and targeting, as well as for attacks.
To avoid the drone attacks, soldiers hide in a dugout and under the trees for hours. Unlike dugouts on other positions, this one doesn’t have bunk beds or a generator, just one wide platform that fits three people in a dark hole in the ground. Ukrainians have also invented other ways of air defense: a small box with an enticing name Tsukorok, Sugar Cube, is taped to the tree. The device catches the frequency waves of drones in a 3 km radius.
“This electronic warfare asset does not emit any signals,” explains Michael. “It monitors, analyzes, and intercepts communication channels of Russian drones, including Lancets, Orlans, and other models. This thing is indispensable. We need at least one device per vehicle and one per combat unit.”
Apart from drones and KABs, artillery presents a constant risk. Just a day before, an artillery shell hit 20 meters from the positions. With the danger in the air, the soldiers appear to be carefree and upbeat, even as they open up about hardship.
“We have stopped the adversary in Vovchansk. They are not advancing at the moment,” says Kuzya, a soldier in his early 20s with a round face, light beard, and a broad smile. “And we have ammunition. Yet, the situation is tense. The enemy is building up their troops. Our guys are tired, need a break, and want to visit families. It’s the third year already. There are days and nights when it’s hard, and we want to rest.”
57th separate motorized infantry brigade has been fighting for ten years, formed on the basis of three volunteer territorial defense battalions in 2014, a few months after the start of the Russian aggression in Donbas. Since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion in 2022, the brigade has taken part in the battles for Sievierodonetsk and Avdiivka and got an award for the liberation of the Kherson Oblast. Most soldiers have been here since at least February 2022; some since 2014.
Kuzya smiles, “We might be tired, but, most importantly, we need weapons and ammo.” Michael confirms, “Infantry and assault brigades need people, but we are doing fine with personnel. The morale is high. If Russians succeed in Ukraine they will move on to Europe and target other countries. We must stop them.”
Mykola, 45, with piercing blue eyes and contagious laughter, starts a debate about the Budapest agreement, nuclear weapons, and the situation in the US and worldwide. He turns everything into a joke. Sitting on the grass around an improvised table made of a tree stump, with a bottle of milk and a glass jar of kasha, the platoon roars with laughter.
A soldier with a call sign Shkodnyk (Rascal), in his early 40s, picks up a big bug from the ground, holds it in his palm, then carefully places the insect on the tree trunk right next to the drone-catching device, his brown eyes shining with the joy of a nine-year-old.
“We need radio stations and kits CHIMERA (Counter-Electronic High-Power Microwave Extended-Range Air Base Defense) to locate the adversary and protect units from medium to long-range airborne threats. Our units with HIMARS get them. And, we also need to use a shower. Have been here for two weeks already. Check out our shower.”
He points at a young soldier washing his hands from a makeshift sink: a water-filled Coca-Cola plastic bottle turned upside down and taped to the tree trunk. He then shows a platoon chevron: Gods of War, a name often applied to artillery.
“Some gods of War.” “Ukrainian gods of War,” laughs Mykola. The field radio is on. “Guys, fire!” shouts Michael.
Five men are running to the weapon along a narrow path. Kuzya climbs on top and jumps inside, Mykola and another soldier are loading ammunition. The turret starts moving. Gvozdika fires. The air fills with smoke and dust. The first two or three shots are a trial. The last one should hit the target.
Back to the main hangout, everyone is relaxed, talking at once, laughing, joking, to the distant sounds of outgoing and incoming artillery. Soon, an incoming artillery shell blows up nearby. Shkodnyk rescues another bug from being stepped at. In two hours, the unit fires three times.
The enemy drones are circling around as our van leaves the positions.
Two hours after our visit, the howitzer barrel blows up during firing. Luckily, no one gets hurt, and the report comes that the morale is still high. According to several military experts, it happens due to barrel wear—hardly surprising, especially as the weapon is fifty years old.
“Even if we run out of weapons, we will fight with shovels,” Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said in January 2024. “Because what is at stake here for Ukraine is the existence of this nation.”
Chinese trader’s $20 million pile of Russian copper goes missing
A giant state-owned Chinese commodities trader is nursing losses after a shipment of copper from Russia worth nearly $20 million went missing, reigniting fears over fraud in the often secretive market for buying and selling raw materials.
Wuchan Zhongda Group Co., which had sales of 580 billion yuan ($80 billion) in 2023, bought 2,000 tons of refined copper from a Russian smelter that should have been delivered last month. It never made it to port, according to people with knowledge of the incident.
Instead, the metal was listed as much cheaper granite and has likely ended up in Turkey, according to the records of the shipping line that handled the consignment, the people said, declining to be identified discussing a sensitive matter.
Staff from the Chinese company have visited Russia to investigate what happened, although they’ve been unable to determine where the smelter is even located, the people said.
Wuchan Zhongda, based in the eastern province of Zhejiang, declined to comment.
https://www.mining.com/web/chinese-traders-20-million-pile-of-russian-copper-goes-missing/
Having ruzzian "friends" be liek ^
Ea-Nasir-ovich?
Somewhere, Ea-nasir is smiling.
That’s wild to buy $20 million in physical material from a company you apparently don’t even concretely know the existence of.
Well, everything was fine on paper :D
To be fair I know about ruzzian companies scammed in a similar way before the war.
So this is a two-way road, which I find extremely amusing.
Friendship without limits™
Friendship without copper
The Romanian publication Profit reported that the Romanian state budget will cover the costs of training Ukrainian pilots on F-16 aircraft at the Fetesti military air base. The Romanian publication reports that Romania will use funds from the defense ministry’s budget to cover expenses related to the presence of Ukrainian pilots and technical personnel at the Fetesti air base for F-16 training.
This includes costs for accommodation, food, transportation, fuel consumed during training, provision of special equipment, and other related goods and services. The document does not provide an estimate of the training costs. It also states that additional funding is not required beyond the already allocated funds.
Romania’s Ministry of Defense document states, “Given the sensitive nature of the works and services to be procured under the contract, as well as the confidential nature of the activities related to the training of Ukrainian personnel, the legislation governing public procurement cannot be applied.”
In November 2023, an F-16 training center was opened at the Fetesti air base. There, Ukrainian and Romanian pilots will receive training. The center was established in collaboration with other allies and Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of these American fighter jets. It meets the requirements for training pilots from NATO countries.
In addition to Romania, Ukrainian pilots are undergoing training in the United States, Denmark, France, and the United Kingdom. This distribution is related to the progressive nature of these training programs.
Ukrainian cadets study theoretical material in the United Kingdom and conduct their first flights to obtain basic flight training. In France, pilots undergo more advanced training on the Alpha Jet trainer aircraft, allowing them to accumulate the required number of flight hours and become more accustomed to controlling aircraft at higher speeds and larger sizes.
In the United States, Denmark, and Romania, pilots receive direct training on F-16 fighter jets and hone their skills in operating them.
New DeepStateMap update. In the past 24 hours or so, Russia is confirmed to have taken around 8.9 km2 of Ukrainian territory.
Almost all of it (8.74 km2) in the area north of Soledar (they made notable gains in that direction yesterday and today too). Namely, fields towards Rozdolivka;
Also 0.14 km2 at Novopokrovske (Ocheretyne direction).
Great to see so much momentum in favor of Ukraine! 50 billions is a massive sum! It buys a shit load of stuff. With this, Ukraine could purchase and sustain a whole modern Western Airforce, tons of Patriots, hundreds of tanks and IFVs. France announcing that it's going to train and equip several brigades in Ukraine. The US signing a deal to provide several squadrons of F-16. Russia virtually abandoning Crimea and surrendering the Black Sea. Keep up the good work Ukraine, the whole world needs it.
I agree it's all good news, but I would temper your excitement. I believe most of the $50 billion will go towards everyday government operations, like salaries and pensions. It's very important, but I wouldn't expect sexy arms purchases. The deal that Ukraine signed with the US doesn't actually commit the US to supply more jets, just to support the modernization of Ukraine's air force. And while Crimea is being hit hard, Russia is still firmly in control of it, and Ukraine doesn't have a whole lot of capability to take it back right now. They can't exactly launch a D-Day style invasion.
I'm not trying to be a downer, and like I said these are all important pieces of good news, but I want to be realistic about their significance and impact.
Also, even if the $50bn was to spend on military hardware, the limitations right now are in stockpile depth and manufacturing capacity—yes, money/orders can scale up the latter, but it takes time.
Yeah, things like missile batteries and tanks have a really long lead time. Unless countries are willing to donate from existing active stockpiles (even stuff stored in depots like the US boneyard takes a long time to reactivate) it takes a long time to turn money into physical weapons.
I wouldn't temper it at all. Let people be happy - this development is amongst the slew of good news that proves the momentum is firmly back in Ukraine's favor. That's not to say there isn't a lot left to be done, but we should celebrate where we can especially in such a grinding, attritional war as this conflict.
Furthermore, $50 billion is $50 frickin' billion. Even if literally none of it went to direct arms purchases, the expenses paid would have had to come from somewhere. By allocating it where needed, it frees up funds for actual hardware and munitions. This huge loan shores up deficits that make for an overall stronger and more robust Ukraine, one wherein economic and governmental health is just as important as the army's strength in outlasting Russia.
That's definitely fair. I just worry that people get really excited over things like this, expect it to be a game changer, and then get a bit despondent when it only moves the needle a little bit. I kind of want to remind folks that it's a marathon, not a sprint, and no one announcement or package is going to totally change the situation.
You are correct yes! But still, its another 50 billion in salaries and pensiones etc, that ukraine doesnt have to worry about and prolly makes them more... "creditworthy" ?! maybe? yeah you are right it isnt as big as a 50 bil weapons package, but there surely are alot of more positive things than "just for pensions" etc. Enjoy your day/night!
And if the Ukr government doesn’t need help with its funding then additional allied donations can be given in military aid.
Definitely! It lets Ukraine use the money it does have for other things (like weapons), stabilizes the government finances, and is really important! It's just a little more behind the scenes/"boring" than an arms package. Have a good night!
In light of the US commitment of multiple squadrons of fighter jets, this is an interesting read: https://www.csis.org/analysis/f-16s-unleashed-how-they-will-impact-ukraines-war
The capabilities of the F-16 enable Ukraine to hold more Russian targets at risk and, in turn, gain more leverage in the war and at the negotiation table. To create a strategic “fleet in being” that Russia must respect, the size of the F-16 fleet matters. NATO countries have committed 65 F-16s to Ukraine. However, more are needed to give the Ukrainian Air Force more power to affect the ground war. As a simple starting point, NATO should be willing to replace all of Ukraine’s Soviet-era fighters with F-16s or equivalent NATO-standard aircraft and dramatically expand the size of Ukraine’s fighter fleet beyond pre-2022 strengths. Some estimates suggest that the size of Ukraine’s fighter fleet was only 69 aircraft in March 2023. By NATO standards, that number of aircraft may make up no more than three fighter squadrons (with 18 aircraft per squadron). Ukraine needs close to 12 fighter squadrons to achieve the air support needed for the war on the ground, with four squadrons primarily responsible for each core mission set: (1) suppression of enemy air defenses, (2) air interdiction, and (3) defensive counter air. This aim would require 216 F-16s, with 18 aircraft in each squadron. Additionally, NATO should have a reserve of F-16s available for resupply on demand, proportional to historical combat loss rates.
So at the of publishing (2 days ago, ironically enough) they counted 65 F-16's committed, with an additional 54-72 (3 to 4 squadrons of 18?) now seemingly committed by the US, puts the tally up to 119-137. That's still far from the 216 mentioned, but it's a serious amount nonetheless.
Either way - you have to imagine that the US war planners agree with this type of analysis - that sending larger numbers of modern fighter jets towards Ukraine will make a significant (albeit not deciding) impact. Meanwhile, the Russian airforce seems to be only decreasing in capacity.
It will be longer rather than shorter before these air frames are in operation and the Ukrainians are capable of using them effectively for sure, but between this and the $50B loan the Ukranians just got, it sure seems that Putin's plan of outlasting the west is not panning out as he'd hoped. His only shot now is a Trump victory in November.
Better hope trumpet dosent fall out a window before then.
Reading the agreement, I don't see anything that commits the US to supplying more aircraft, just continuing to support the F-16 coalition.
- ~Air~: The United States commits to coordinate with Ukraine, and work principally through an allied consortium, on the modernization of Ukraine’s Air Force, including working toward procurement of squadrons of modern fighter aircraft, sustainment, armament, and associated training to support fourth generation fighter capability (including, but not limited to, F-16 multi-role aircraft), as well as other air domain capabilities such as transport and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance platforms (including unmanned).
The 65 - 95 F-16s promised already constitute 3 - 5 squadrons. Nothing in that text promises more, or says the US will supply them. It's also noteworthy that it specifically calls out fourth generation jets, so F-35 is off the table. That's not at all surprising, no one would expect F-35, but this makes it pretty clear.
Also, no reason to think that they'll all be F-16. For instance, France will provide some Mirage jets. Maybe not one full squadron, but given how based Macron had been recently, I wouldn't doubt it. Millei says they'll transfer some older jets too, of which they have 14 that they can't fly due to British sanctions.
I remember when the US announced that they were supporting the jet coalition, they very specifically said that they supported providing 4th gen aircraft to Ukraine. That potentially includes F-16, but also F-15, FA-18, Harriers, A-10s and any amount of Soviet stock they can get their hands on through ring exchanges and barter.
So many of these aircraft are getting decommissioned at an astonishing rate by US and allies. For instance, the US is getting rid of more than 100 jets this year, 250+ next year. They're getting rid of 15 AWACS this year alone!
If the will is there then the bottleneck is really the training.
A-10 is a total liability for this type of war. That is a jet you fly only under complete air superiority.
Once they have air superiority it would be an asset..
Sure, but that means taking a finite resource - Ukrainian pilots - and training them exclusively on an aircraft that may never see use. Manpads will always be a threat, and the A-10 is a huge juicy target. I love that plane, but it's a waste of resources and training.
They have already proven that retraining pilots used to Russian aircraft doesn’t work and the new pilots are recruited and trained from scratch so the pool for possible pilots is still very large. It’s just a matter of finding the good ones with the required aptitudes.
but they will need it to replace the SU25 which is just as big an AA target
Yes, you're right. Those do need to be replaced. Correct me if I am wrong, though, but they don't seem to be flying the SU25 much at all compared to their multi-roll Soviet airframes.
Today, we concluded historic agreements with the US and Japan. We now have seven security agreements with all G7 countries, and a total of seventeen agreements signed, with ten more in preparation.
Throughout these days, I have been in constant communication with our military, receiving daily reports from the Commander-in-Chief and continuous updates from the Defense Minister and intelligence services about the situation on the frontlines, particularly in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, as well as our warriors’ needs and other essential details.
Today's meetings at the G7 Summit focused on accelerating the delivery of pledged packages to Ukraine. The key outcome is that there will be more air defense for our cities. “Patriots” is already becoming a Ukrainian word. Additionally, there will be more equipment and other essential supplies for the frontlines. A significant decision regarding the use of Russian assets for Ukraine has been made, marking the first substantial step by the G7 toward $50 billion. I thank our partners for their support.
I had a call with Swiss President Viola Amherd. We discussed final preparations for the inaugural Peace Summit, the details of its communique, and steps to broaden support among countries in the Global South.
The day after tomorrow, we will take the first step toward a just peace in Ukraine. I am grateful to all countries that will join us in this endeavor.
I would also like to thank President Amherd for her leadership and tireless efforts to make this summit a reality.
Any word on news of a bank run in Russia?
No bank run happened, but there are no USD or EUR in banks either.
Some ruzzians were able to buy USDs for 94-98 rubbles, depending on a bank/place.
For comparison, official exchange rate set by ruzzian central bank is 88 rubbles for 1 USD.
But the point is banks can now set whatever exchange rates they want.
Other news:
Stock exchanges from some other CIS countries (like Kazakhstan) will stop working with MOEX and rubbles in general.
I saw an article yesterday saying "lines at moneychangers" definitely using those 2 words in the title. I didn't read it but it's for sure in one of the regular subreddits.
Inside Russia confirmed this saying lines were reported in his latest stream.
Big nothing so far, MOEX declined a bit but the Ruble is still holding.
A Ukrainian woman fearlessly escaped the Russian-occupied town of Oleshky in the Kherson Oblast by crossing the destroyed Antonivskyi Bridge.
Journalist Yuriy Butusov shared the dramatic video, captured by a Ukrainian military reconnaissance drone, on his Telegram channel.
The footage shows the drone guiding the woman as she bravely navigates the wreckage of the bridge, moving towards territory controlled by Ukrainian Defense Forces.
“She waved her Ukrainian passport at the drone, and later our soldiers evacuated her to Kherson by boat,” Butusov explained in his commentary accompanying the video.
Look at that badass. She looks like she’s just casually taking a stroll.
(Moscow) Mick Wallace has lost his seat in the European Parliament. The Irish people have spoken.
Yasssss! I was worried he’d squeak in. Both he and Daly are out now. Huge as they were the two English language fifth columnists in the EU parliament.
This and Italy are the two huge wins. Admittedly some losses too, mostly in Germany and Austria.
Don't forget that FVD (Dutch conspiracy party) lost all their seats (4 --> 0). Admittedly, they all went to PVV (far-right extremists), but since PVV is forming the new Dutch government, they have been surprisingly mellow.
Feckin gobshites.
Pretty sure their comments and voting with regard to Ukraine are the main reasons they were not re-elected. I’m glad enough Irish people were paying attention.
I bet. People realized they were representing the Kremlin and not their districts.
Mick Wallace and Claire Daly out. Good times, pints for the lads.
Thanks boys for taking out the trash. Cheers.
Good. Fuck em both!
Worth celebrating with a cold one for sure. Well done to the Irish. 🍻
I did my part! Fuck the pair of those utter shite stains
Good on you. Politicians need to know the consequences of voting/speaking out on behalf of Putin. 🤝
Both Wallace and Daly got whacked and lost their jobs. Fucking Glorious that those 2 Vatnik Gobshites are gone!
Tip of my virtual hat from Canada.
🇺🇦🇺🇸 Today is a truly historic day. We signed the strongest agreement between Ukraine and the United States since our independence.
This agreement is about security, protecting human life, fostering cooperation, and strengthening our nations. It includes steps to guarantee sustainable peace and benefits everyone globally, because Russia’s war against Ukraine is a real global threat.
I thank President Biden for his leadership reflected in this agreement and for his support for Ukraine throughout the years. I also thank our teams for making sure that the details of the agreement are really good.
I thank every Ukrainian soldier and all of our people whose courage made this level of alliance between Ukraine and the US possible. I am proud of our people and what Ukraine can do. And I’m very grateful to all Americans who strengthen American leadership.
The document includes a detailed, legally binding part, ensuring the reliability of America’s support for our independence. US security commitments are based on sustainable security and defense support during this war and for the period of peace after it. We will ensure peace.
The agreement clearly states that America supports Ukraine’s efforts to gain victory in this war. The agreement includes provisions for advanced defense systems like Patriot and fighter jet squadrons—that’s right, plural, squadrons—including, but not limited to, F-16s.
The document also details the supply of necessary weapons, their joint production, and strengthening of our countries' defense industries through cooperation. This will provide not only security, but also new good jobs for Ukrainians and Americans.
Importantly, the agreement addresses Russia’s responsibility for this war and its attempts to destroy Ukrainians. America supports fair compensation for the damage caused by Russian strikes and the work on enabling the use of frozen Russian assets to protect and rebuild Ukraine.
The agreement includes sanctions and export controls to make Russia feel the pain for what it is doing against the freedom of peoples.
I appreciate that the philosophy of our security agreement is in fact the philosophy of NATO. The issue of NATO is covered through the text. The document states that the U.S. supports Ukraine’s future membership in NATO and sees this agreement as a bridge to NATO membership.
It is crucial for all Ukrainians and Europeans to know there will be no security deficit in Europe, which tempts the aggressor to war. We are clearly defining everything: cooperating for victory, making peace guarantees effective, and ensuring necessary security for our people.
I thank President Biden and his team, as well as the US Congress—both parties and chambers—for their support. I thank every American heart that does not betray freedom and supports us.
I also thank President Biden for his leadership in the G7’s decision on $50 billion loan for Ukraine. It’s a vital step forward in providing sustainable support for Ukraine in winning this war.
Russian immobilised assets should be used for defending lives of Ukrainians from Russian terror and for repaying the damage caused to Ukraine by the aggressor. This is fair and absolutely right.
This is great, and Ukraine has signed a lot of these bilateral agreements lately, but what are the actual practical implications of these agreements? What do they legally bind the US, UK, or any other country to actually do for Ukraine?
nothing because there is no legal mechanism for holding counties of those stature to account. it's essentially a fancy promise from those countries
MTG seen wailing and raging at her aides.
Is the text available?
Moreover is it binding on the US or does it require Congressional approval?
Until Congress ratifies a treaty formally, it’s only an executive branch policy decision that can be changed at will by a future administration.
And even if it were ratified, Ukraine would have no mechanism to enforce it.
But presumably a wilful breach by the President could be grounds for impeachment (not that Congress would convict, but still....)
Maybe not. It's an open question on whether the President can unilaterally not follow a treaty, even if the Senate has given consent to ratification.
If you're interested, here's a law review article about it: Berger, The President’s Unilateral Termination of the Taiwan Treaty, 75 Nw. U. L. Rev. 577 (1980) (https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/illlr75&div=27&id=&page=).
There are more--it's an issue that comes up form time to time, but without clear resolution yet.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1801347771422884060
"Media: Russia suffered 'astronomical' losses on Kharkiv front, NATO source suggests."
"Russia suffered "astronomical" losses while attempting to advance in Kharkiv Oblast, European Pravda reported on June 13, citing a NATO official who spoke on condition of anonymity during a NATO defense ministers meeting in Brussels."
It seemed they were losing 1200-1300 men daily. Now it is below 1000.
I don't hear anymore about Russian troop shortages. So I don't know if Russia cares about those losses or not.
I saw reports about ruzzians recruiting people from old age asylums.
Like Ukrainians captured one POW like that who told his story.
So ruzzian manpower shortages are still there.
Whether putler and his aides know about these shortages is a different question though.
Manpower will be one of the last things to run out. Resefves have been growing faster than deaths. Artillery barrels they've got like a year left.
Resefves have been growing faster than deaths.
That's only on paper.
If that was true, ruzzians wouldn't need to raid old age asylums to find future mobik cubes.
This is the essence of ruzzia - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potemkin_village
I got a funny image in my head with some grandpa in PJs with a walker and an IV bag bumbling through a trench.
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The BBC live thread on the use of russian assets sounds too good to be true. The numbers seem off?
"Legally, countries cannot confiscate assets directly from Russia and give them to Ukraine.
They can, however, use the interest from the $300bn-plus in Russian assets that G7 members currently have frozen, which is accruing about $3bn a year.
The plan is to take out a loan on the international markets and to give $50bn to the Ukrainians each year.
Then, they will use the $3bn generated by the frozen assets to pay off the interest on the loan given to Ukraine. "
The russian assets interest seems low, and the loans to Ukraine seem cheap. After 3 years you'd be at $150bn in loan principal and you'd need to be getting 2% interest to cover it with russian profits.
"Legally, countries cannot confiscate assets directly from Russia"
Laws can be changed.
slowly - which is a good thing too.
I call bs on 1% returns. Someone is taking a massive cut here
That's what I was wondering!
Don't want to leap to conclusions though. Maybe they can only access yields on parts of it.
Or maybe some were in long-term bonds. US/German 10-year bonds were issued with sub-1% interest for periods over the last decade.
that's for poors though. Oligarchs aren't sticking their money in those types of investments. I'll eat a hat if they are averaging less than 3.25% a year, minimum.
From everything I've read this is Russian state assets, not oligarchs'.
Prove me wrong though! I'd love to see them giving back to society.
I think the big question is if Ukraine can use that money for the war directly. Prior to invasion Ukraine's military budget was about 6 billion USD and Russia's was about 66 billion. I absolutely want to see Ukraine rebuilt but getting the weapons and air defense in the short term needs to be the priority. Getting the air defense needed to prevent missiles from striking cities is a lot cheaper than rebuilding the cities after they've been hit.
The electrical grid can only take so much damage too
I think a lot of this money will go towards basic day-to-day funding of government operations - paying salaries and all the regular stuff a government needs to just keep functioning.
And that should be fine if EU and US funding can then shift to full defence.
Keeping Ukraine's government funded and economy running is crucial. Major domestic unrest in Ukraine would hand victory to Putin.
Oh, absolutely! It's critically important and frees up money for other things. I certainly didn't mean to imply it wasn't valuable.
We will do whatever it takes to end Putin’s illegal war.
That’s why Ukraine welcomes Britain’s commitment to continuing to support Ukraine’s military, economy and people.
In an increasingly uncertain world, Britain and Ukraine are united in wanting a secure future for our people. 🇺🇦 🇬🇧
@RishiSunak
I had a meaningful meeting with Canada’s Prime Minister @JustinTrudeau. I am grateful to Canada for its defense assistance and preparation of future packages, including medevacs and other armored vehicles.
We discussed the security situation, defense cooperation, and preparations for the NATO Washington Summit.
Our key focus was on preparations for the Global Peace Summit and its expected outcomes. Additionally, we discussed the practical work of the International Coalition for the Return of Forcibly Displaced Ukrainian Children, where Canada is an initiator and co-leader.
One of Russia's top security officials called on Thursday for Russians to mobilise to inflict "maximum harm" on Western societies and infrastructure as payback for increasingly tough sanctions being imposed on Moscow by the U.S. and its allies.
Finally sanctions having the intended effect. When the silver spoon in Moscow starts to feel the pinch, that’s when you hear about it.
Wow. I wonder if friend China is enjoying the antics of their best mate.
What would be the equivalent from the west toward Russia?
I see Medvedev found the Vodka and started bitching again, I guess his handlers need to find a new hiding spot.
The handlers take their "cut" first from the bottle, just like everything else in The ruzzia
Now it's the perfect time to ban all Russians from entering western countries, especially after a message like this
Wouldn't it shorten the war if we could somehow get a few million russian men to go live, work and pay taxes elsewhere?
Obviously some will be terrorists, so there's a risk to letting them in to western countries. There are other options, and things like deporting those who support the terrorist state and allowing asylum to those openly anti-Putin.
Sure, if you're open for another possible war with Russia because they have to "free the oppressed Russians" and can handle more votes for extremists
If russia loses then that's not a real concern for most countries.
I'd certainly be in favour of asylum for scientists, engineers, technologists etc if you could vet them to ensure they're anti Putin. Even a few hundred thousand across the whole West would hurt russia.
Or there are non-western countries. Paying russians to go live in a third country far away could be cost effective.
You're right about the risks of them infecting their local countries with their terrorism, but not all russians are like that. Younger/educated/liberals tend to be the most productive and we want russian production curtailed.
This is interesting. Armenia can't enter NATO due to inevitable blocking by Azerbaijan's main ally Turkey.
However, US could potentially swoop in and set up a bilateral security agreement with Armenia, steering them away from Russia, while ensuring they don't get attacked by Azerbaijan now that they are pretty much allyless
Complete conjecture, but with the amount of effort that went into appealing to Armenia even prior to them leaving Russia's garbage makes me think they might eventually get a nice big leased US base.
Alongside Biden at G7, Zelensky says Ukraine needs 7 Patriot air defense systems
How many do they have right now? And how many have been pledged?
They will have 6 in total if I'm correct. 3 from Germany, 2 from the US and 1 from the Netherlands
According to this twitter thread for full batteries it's 3 delivered, 1 pledged and 2 reported by the media as pledged.
So your 6 is accurate if we can trust Bloomberg and NYT sources.
Plus parts of systems promised minus two launchers that got Iskandrd by the russians.
Jakub Janovsky tweeted Oryx Russian loss counts to date for each type of tank and IFV. What I found interesting...
- T-62 losses (150) have edged past T-90 losses (144)
- T-80 losses (882) are way above the number that were active prewar (~500 iirc)
- BMP-1 losses (835) also way above the prewar active number.
- BMP-3 losses (470) are most of their prewar fleet (~640).
Real losses are probably higher than Oryx reports. I've heard 10-25% bandied about for tanks/IFVs, and there are losses where they don't know the type. Wouldn't surprise me if T-80 losses are around 1k.
Should add they have made at least a couple hundred BMP-3s since the war began.
The bad news is that we've seen regular deliveries of them.
I think production could be up to ~360/year now based on pics/video of trains and the Kurganmashzavod factory.
They ramped up. Wouldn't surprise me if they'd made maybe 400 in the first 2 years...
Also both Ukraine and russia capture and re-use what ever they can, so a single vehicle can be "lost" multople times and it will not be a lie.
The International Fund for Ukraine (IFU) will provide a new package of military assistance worth more than EUR 350 million.
As reported on the website of the Ministry of Defense of the Netherlands, the support is aimed at supplying 152 mm artillery shells to Ukraine.
IFU was founded by nine countries: the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Australia, Denmark, Iceland, Lithuania, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden
Russian TG reporting an explosion in Kalingrad
“Locals say it was a UAV”
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1801311374343094414?s=46
Waiting for some further confirmation/more info
Well, Russia can shoot crap over NATO air space uncontested. Fair's fair, right?
As of late, I have been noticing an uptick in comments on Youtube channels that have been following the war from day one (namely noticed it on Kings and Generals, Binkov, but others as well), how they are terrible for "anyone seeking the truth", and how "the Ukrainian bias is unreal", and that it's nowhere close to "realism". "They always keep saying how Russia is losing even when they are winning, they never say anything positive about Russia and its successes."
Then someone asked one of them what would be an unbiased source for news related to the war, and they recommend some channels that literally use pro-Russian Telegram and MoD as sources (I won't mention them here, but they are your usual notable ones).
Those comments also usually have a lot of likes... Makes me wonder if it's really just the Russian botting campaign, or it's actually people who got disillusioned for some reason, and are now searching for "neutrality", "truth", and are hit by these channels who claim they are presenting "the real facts on the ground."
Also, this whole notion of assuming a "neutral" stance between a country that is invaded and country that is the aggressor makes my stomach turn. I swear half of these people are either blissfully ignorant or are like 15 years old and don't understand the gravity of war.
Nah, it's just ruzzian trollfarms doing their usual work.
From my experience, it's been like that from the start of the war.
Also ruzzians spend like billions on these trollfarms.
Other targets are youtube channels of big news agencies.
And also just big Western resources/forums/discussion platforms.
Moreover, these days, it's not just ruzzians being hired, by English speakers from India, Africa etc.
There are "workers" speaking German and French as well
And, ofc they do their thing on Ukrainian resources/sites as well.
The whole theme of this war is disinformation. It's absolutely ubiquitous. An authoritarian prince needs propaganda. Fascism needs right think. Bot farms with X trigger words get Y results. Herd mentality attracts some known number of flock. Social media algorithms are controllable.
The whole war is so Russia can ironfirewall a larger population with more land. Anything pro-autocracy is for sure a function of how autocracy works in the modern world. That's how the gears turn. That's also why the most gullible/poor academic achievers are on one side. It doesn't let up, because reason will eventually prevail by virtue of logics natural persistence. They literally can't stop, or let an exploit pass.
Sounds like astroturf
Troll factories almost guaranteed. Could be a 'useful idiot' as well. Can't rule those suckers out; they exist.
troll factories is such a strange way of saying hybrid state warfare, like russia did this bullshit to Georgia, did it to crimea, and is trying hard to do it to the rest of ukraine.
Shocked at how quickly I find acquaintances who hate Biden and believes Russia is innocent. Usually it's also people I know who consider themselves smarter than everyone else. It's maddening
The Dunning-Kruger effect.
Also MAGA circles are infiltrated by ruzzian agents and ruzzia lovers
people who are knowledgeable about one topic often believe that they are knowledgeable about everything else
It's Russian information warfare 100%. Don't believe for a second that it's organic. Most of the posts are bots, but the phrases and comments are designed by the IRA in Russia.
Youtube puts up zero defense against bot farms and information warfare attacks. Even you yourself can create 20 accounts and up-vote your own comments and Youtube does nothing to stop this. They don't care.
If you look back at threads from 2014 and discussions of Russia's initial invasion of Crimea and the Donbas a lot of them are echoing pro Russian talking points. This then got picked up in main stream western news articles and so articles often framed the initial war as "pro Russia regions trying to break away" rather than the early stages of a Russian invasion.
Put simply the west was not prepared for a high level of coordinated Russian talking points hitting social media and trying to reframe mainstream journalism as well. This then became a contributing factor to a lackluster western response which encouraged more Russian aggression later on.
While this is true, people need to start calling this what it is from the Russian perspective: information warfare. It's a war.
For a lot of people (those who aren't actually vatniks), winning the war just means making the map move around. They hear of lost hamlets and villages, but since they're just presented by name, they'll think Russia is moving through Ukraine's urban landscape. They fell into the propaganda trap that Russia's resources are infinite, that "naturally, the Soviets won WW2, right?? If they really want something, they'll get it"
akes me wonder if it's really just the Russian botting campaign, or it's actually people who got disillusioned for some reason
There are people believing the earth is flat and that god controls humanity.
If we wanted to, we could also believe that santa clause exists.
Years and years of propaganda experince plus social media is a dangerous combination for humanity.
EU commissioner Thierry Breton is giving good numbers for EU shell production rates. Source.
My attempted translation (my French is poor and the machine translation wasn't clear either): started around 500k/year, 1 million/year in January 2024, 1.7 million/year December 2024, 2+ million next year. Goal of 2.5m/year rate.
I hope this is 155 mm, but it's hard to say.
Could be even better than it sounds, if new supplies are mostly Ukraine bound. E.g. if 300k/year is exported to non-Ukraine countries, then they only had 200k "spare" for Ukraine at first. Going from 500k to 1.7m production would then be potentially a +600% increase in rounds that are theoretically available for Ukraine.
You are correct. They are saying this is 155mm. The goal of 2.5M/year is expected for 2025 but he does not give a specific month.
Just heard this on the radio on my way to work
Made me say fuck yeah lol
Moscow has engaged in hybrid operations to oust Moldova’s pro-EU government and to bring the Eastern European nation back into its orbit, a coalition of Western nations has alleged.
It's almost as if the enclave they left in their border was just a tool for their imperialism shocking news.
What I find fascinating is that Transnistrians are able to vote in Moldovan elections. Like Moldova has no control over them, but they can still influence Moldovan politics
I don't even need to fact check to tell you that was enforced by moscow they definitely threatened violence if Moldova didnt allow them to vote.
Just claim "they are abusing russian minorities we are gonna invade" all over again.
Ukraine and Moldova together could have Transinatra cleaned out and the Russians returned home before the end of next week. How on earth could the Russians do anything about it with Transinatra so well isolated. /s maybe.
They definitely could but I can already see the European union and the US making a fuss over "escalation".
As if keeping the russian enclaves whose only purpose is to justify an invasion is not encouraging escalation from russia.
The news on CV-90 infantry fighting vehicles for Ukraine sounds kinda...not great.
"The Netherlands will deliver the first Dutch-built and financed BAE Systems CV90 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine in 2026, ... The Dutch are investing €400 million (U.S. $430 million) in a Swedish fund to build the CV90s for Ukraine, the government said June 7. That amount is the Dutch share and will pay for “several tens” of vehicles".
Delivery by 2026 is forward looking, it's good there's stuff being worked on now.
Quoted prices are really high. $10-15m a unit?
CV-90s are awesome but Ukraine needs like 1k IFVs per year. There need to be cheaper options.
I think the proliferation of drones makes high-end IFVs and other vehicles a cost-prohibitive proposal. Not obsolete, just not cost effective. A Bradley or a CV-90 is a fantastic vehicle, but when you can only build a small number of IFVs at a high price and your enemy can produce tens of thousands of cheap FPV drones with RPG warheads, does that expensive IFV make sense? I don't think you can feasibly add enough armor to protect against drones, and while a 30 mm gun with proximity fused rounds will work well to take out drones, you'd have to modify the turrets quite a bit to give them the elevation and fire control necessary to be effective in that role, and the very limited ammunition capacity and time dedicated for watching for drones would compromise the gun's primary role as infantry support.
It seems like you either need a much more reliable anti-drone weapon for protection that can increase survivability (widespread deployment of dedicated anti-drone vehicles like Gepards, or a much more effective EW or APS system), or you need to rely on much cheaper vehicles that are effectively disposable. Basically M113s or similar simple vehicles with protection against 14.5 mm and lesser threats.
Mines have overall been a bigger hazard.
There was an article in the Washington post this morning about how Ukraine has adapted the Bradley. Basically it has proved hugely useful so far. Like it's fine to speculate, but it doesn't seem like they're yet at the point where Bradley's are "cost prohibitive"
Mines have definitely been a problem, no question about that, but I think that reinforces my point. Mines are incredibly cheap and very hard to defend a vehicle from. Even if the crew survives, the vehicle is now disabled, likely in no-man's-land, and you have to commit significant resources to recover it.
As for the cost-prohibitive bit, it's only not cost-prohibitive for Ukraine because neither Ukraine nor the US are paying to produce them, they are old stock the US is donating to Ukraine for free and that we has thousands of and not costing Ukraine anything. It's the same as Russia with tanks, they are only able to keep using them because they have massive Cold War stockpiles to burn through. According to Oryx, Ukraine has lost close to 1/3 of all Bradleys that the US has actually delivered in a year. At $3 million to $5 million each and a production rate of just 28 per month (4,641 M2s produced between 1981 and 1995) that is absolutely cost-prohibitive. M113 production was something like 150 per month at a cost of $500,000, which is much more manageable in a war of attrition.
It just means radar assisted guns, spectrometers, and lidars are the new hot for ifvs.
I'm more hopeful about Rheinmetall and its partnership to start production of the Lynx in Ukraine this year. If they can get production started, then I think investing the money in that would be a better use of the funds.
The Lynx sounds really promising to me. I found articles talking about how the Lynx is designed to be more cost effective. Do you have any sources giving plausible info on cost and production rates?
I'm definitely still trying to learn on this topic.
Initial contract in Hungary was for 218 units at a total cost of a little north of $2 billion, which comes out to about $10 million a unit.
Initial low rate production was for fifty vehicles, that started June 2023 (ish) and the first deliveries should have occurred by now. Full production was supposed to start around now. Ukraine and Rheinmetall and talking about domestic production starting in Ukraine by the end of the year. Average monthly salary in Ukraine is less than half average monthly salary in Hungary. Considering payroll is going to range around 20-25% of costs, you can probably shave at least a million per unit off. Add in the fact that Ukraine is probably going to need a lot more than 218 units, there’s going to be a bulk discount as well. So let’s ballpark unit cost around 8 million. BAE systems just got a contract for 160 Bradleys
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/bae-systems-resumes-production-of-m2-bradley-and-m777/#
Let’s use that as a rough comparison. So I’m going to guess around 150-200 units a year at roughly $8million per unit. Now, I have no idea what kind of factory Ukraine is building, and what kind of disruptions it will face, but that’s my best guess (please take with a huge grain of salt).
I’m probably wrong, but I still have this nagging feeling that machine vision FPV and long range drones are so much more cost effective than every other available solution.
Even with artillery most of your fire hits nothing. With machine vision drones they’re either intercepted or mostly hits.
Tough to beat a cheap, effective solution where losing one is expected and no major cost.
Drones cannot take and hold positions. They cannot assault positions. They are great defensive and can act as enablers, but they cannot win or replace infantry assault groups. And infantry needs armored vehicles.
Drones are great, but you cannot win a land war entirely from the air. You need boots on the ground and you need them to be well protected.
The ratios between what's employed in combined arms change all the time-- air power, artillery, tanks, infantry-- based on advancements and the situation. But you still need all the things.
An aerial drone carrying & delivering a soldier in an armored pod will be something to see... some day
Helldivers!
You need boots on the ground to control a hostile population. But mostly Ukraine just needs there to be no Russian troops.
They can clear our areas well ahead of the infantry with drones.
Russian-affiliated paramilitaries are still a problem, and they blend into populations and cause havoc.
Even when an arial drone is shot down, it likely costs the defender more in AA ammunition than it does to produce the drone.
Not drones, but speaking of machine vision this was just reported:
Ukrainian Ministry of Defense contracts Wolly remote weapon systems
The Wolly turret is designed to mount 7.62 mm machine guns, including Soviet PKTs. The system operator can fire remotely at a distance of up to 100 meters from the turret.
The module is controlled via a tablet and gamepad. It can operate autonomously for 130 hours and weighs 30 kg (excluding the weight of the ammunition).
According to the developers, Wolly can be permanently installed in a trench with a control cable to the dugout.
A neural network is integrated into the equipment’s combat system, which automatically calculates the distance to the object and ballistics, thus increasing the accuracy of fire. The manufacturers also claimed the ability to recognize targets.
https://mil (dot) in (dot) ua/en/news/ukrainian-ministry-of-defense-contracts-wolly-remote-weapon-systems/
It does feel like we're on the cusp of a huge, huge change. Machine vision drones that are immune to electronic warfare terrify me.
We might see unmanned ground vehicles including a crapton of decoys as a response?
Drone swarms that act as a mesh network to relay signals can also mitigate EW. That's another thing that's coming down the pipe.
If you want to me more terrified, check out this chilling video about hypothetical autonomous drones called “Slaughterbots”. I wouldn’t be surprised if something similar has already been made in a lab somewhere.
We already have arial drones and sea drones and they are both very successful. Land drones is an obvious next step.
I really don’t know how Russia or Ukraine deal with cheap one way drones with super basic machine vision of “trained to fly into vaguely military vehicle and human looking shapes”.
All you do is give them a direction and set them loose.
The chips and cameras needed are cheap, the code is mostly in SDKs that exist.
Western armies would never accept the collateral risk, but both Ukraine and Russia easily would. The frontlines are mostly defined enough and not full of civilians.
Drone interceptors? Decoys? Saturation? Armour/cope cages?
Throw decoys and interceptors into an area until they appear to run out...
Yeah it terrifies me.
The defence of Avdiivka was already drastically changed by drones.
New post can be found here