What am I missing with Wembanyama?

1.0y

As mentioned above, Durant came into the league with elite shotnakijg skills. There’s no real reason to think Wemby will become an excellent midrange or 3 point shooter.

mattw08

1.0y

You may be forgetting how Durant first year went. His shooting %s were terrible and were question marks.

justbrowsing987654

1.0y

Didn’t the Sonics try and play him as a supersized 2 guard for a lot of it too?

Rookie year doesn’t matter, it’s always going to be an adjustment to the speed and flow of the game at the pro level. If you see flashes, that’s often enough to know year 2 starts the real ascent.

zatchj62

1.0y

Okay but that was more a question of whether his shot would adapt against NBA defenses. His college season percentages indicated he was an elite shooter. It’s different than a player who has poor percentages at lower levels.

With that said, Wemby’s FT% is great and his length is just going to increase the proportion of uncontested looks he gets. I really believe in his ability to develop a reliable jumper

Typical-Radish4317

1.0y

Wemby's stats are also not against college players. They are against professionals. So kind of apples to oranges comparisons with Durant

Emotional-Peanut-334

1.0y

The spanish league is good for instance but the french league is genuinly bad

1.0y

I’m talking about coming out of TX. I know it took him awhile to fil out and improve, but it was clear he was a GREAT shooter coming out of college. The same can’t be said for Wemby.

snackpack333

1.0y

I dont remember anyone having questions about his shooting

mattw08

1.0y

Cause it was 15 years ago and he tore it up after year 1.

snackpack333

1.0y

No because I remembered even in year when everyone seemed confident he'd figure it out

ffgold

1.0y

The spurs turned kawaii into an elite shooter, they could do it again I guess

1.0y

True. I think the shooting coach who helped him is gone. A lot of people vote Kawhi when talking about prospects shooting improvement because it is such a massive outlier.

1.0y

durant was a sub 30% shooter in his rookie year from 3. Wemby shot poor;ly sure but his teammates werent good. NBA makes the game easier by oplaying in more space and more talented teammates, including guards that will get him good looks

1.0y

Correct. Durant had 1 year of poor shooting out of the last 16 years. He was great the year before and every year after that rookie year (which clearly was an aberration at this point.

1.0y

Wemby’s shot really badly from deep every year he’s played as a pro, wherever he played. Don’t forget that the FIBA three is a lot shorter & European defenses tend to pack the paint because there’s no three-second defensive rule. Perimeter defense in Europe is pretty scarce.

Complex_Jellyfish647

1.0y

He doesn’t need to be an elite shooter. If he’s a 7’5 skinny (healthy) AD, he’s the best player in the league. And I know people will say “well AD weights 250” but does he play like it? You don’t need to be physical when you’re that skilled. The possibility (I’d say probability) that he also develops into a good shooter is just a bonus.

1.0y

It absolutely is a huge factor to have weight/strength no matter how skilled you are, on both ends of the court. It's not like he can move like Kyrie, let's not kid ourselves.

1.0y

It’s more than a bonus. If he always shoots 30% from 3 teams will figure out ways to slow him down over time. If he shoots over 40%, with all the other crazy shit he does, he’s going to win a bunch of MVPs.

nat3215

1.0y

But AD bulked up after being at Kentucky. He was as scrawny as Wemby out of college.

1.0y

Being much taller becomes a disadvantage when it’s easy for guys to body you. Also, even though Wemby does have a really good low dribble for a big man he’s still gonna get his pocket picked all the time if he tries to face up against guards and forwards. Having such a high center of gravity is a huge disadvantage.

1.0y

Wemby could become an effective three-point shooter but he’s gonna have to work on that shot selection. Don’t know if this is a Euro-thing but Luka also has that problem. Fancy threes aren’t worth more points…

bta47

1.0y

Durant only became a comp because of the build, I think — he’s not the same player at all. KD played like a wing for his entire career, Wemby’s virtually already a lock to be the best defensive center in basketball. They don’t play the same position and they don’t have the same job.

Ababanfkslwbcj

1.0y

We never really know if a prospect will improve drastically like that. He’ll be good out of the gate but the skills he has to develop to be an MVP are in no way a sure thing. We’ll see.

He is 7'5" and can do this.

1.0y

He's 19. If he's very good out of the gate I'll be MORE confident he'll develop.

8MODA

1.0y

If Boban could move like Wemby, he’d also be highly regarded, this is true

hankbaumbach

1.0y

IRanOutOf_Names

187

1.0y

The shot will (likely) come. His mechanics are smooth, and will help further his growth as a shooter. You also jumped over it but his FT% indicates he has the potential. 80% at 7'5" is insane, that's what KD shot when he was that age, that's better than the majority of NBA players right now. Even if it never goes up (incredibly unlikely) 80% tends to be the hallmark of a good NBA shooter. Of course this is all speculation, but that's what Wemby is, speculation. Everyone knows he's going to be a top tier shot blocker, and his height will make him a good lob catcher and rebounder, but it's the fact that he can do the other stuff, and has signs that could lead to improvement that make him the white whale.

Of course you've also got idiots expecting 20ppg and an all star nom next year, but it's not about that. It's about the fact that he's clearly going to be an All NBA level defender, while also showing the signs of a possible offensive explosion.

MrCompletely

1.0y

skirt far-flung heavy modern brave dolls decide dinosaurs marry correct

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RiiCreated

1.0y

Good takes here but coming from a French League to the NBA is where he has to prove his value. He also does have some injury history with his knee and that could be concerning going forward. As OP mentioned, the skillset is there but players of his size are often injured, sadly this is how it is for his body type.

I don’t know if his defence will be that elite at his frame, I’ve seen clips of him getting backed down by guards half his size and it’s not pretty. If he gets injured his first year, it’s likely he’ll have a short career. I hope he proves me wrong

GGTae

1.0y

He had nothing with his knee lol, it was one fibula, one finger and one pelvic muscle

RiiCreated

1.0y

Lol my bad wrong part, but still, some injury history. That fibula did end up keeping him out for a season so let’s see

MrCompletely

1.0y

coherent many continue person library badge fanatical teeny smile ring

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RiiCreated

1.0y

Hey my bad it wasn’t his knee actually, rather a muscle in his hip that kept him out for some time. Thankfully he’s recovered from it.

Definitely though, it’s such an interesting gamble that I’m sure any team would take.

What’s your thoughts on how they use him with the Spurs? Their starting 5 is pretty interesting lol but a nice solid core of young players

MrCompletely

1.0y

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Cotillion512

1.0y

I'm looking forward to seeing the results of Luka posting him up. He's got almost a foot on Luka but Luka's going to push him around like tall weeds

mcc1923

1.0y

One thing people forget though is a great rookie contract can be very useful.

mc2205

1.0y

I don't think its idiotic to believe he can replicate what he did in France in the NBA immediately.

IRanOutOf_Names

1.0y

It's not a matter of belief, but you've got people in the media setting him up to fail. He could have a transcendent rookie season, but All star in year 1 is a wild expectation to put on someone. Not a possibility, but a "it will be a disappointment if they fall short" expectation.

FireyT

1.0y

Luka got the same I think? 'but can he do it in the NBA, after all he has only been playing in Spain'. Turns out, Luka is ok.

mathmage

1.0y

Luka's success in Euroleague is on another level from any other Euro prospect ever. Euroskepticism is overblown, but not because of Luka.

Superflyhomeboy

1.0y

On offense certainly, he had full license to shoot whatever shot he wanted on Mets92 which is not going to happen on the spurs.

But on defense I think it's fair to expect he will replicate pretty much exactly what he was doing which is being one of the best defenders on the planet

mc2205

1.0y

Oh without a doubt. I do think that reigning in his shot selection will get him to the line more, and will result in probably the same ppg on probably closer to 10% better efficiency. I wouldn't be shocked for Victor to be anywhere between 15-22 ppg on 55% shooting as a rookie. And then yes. The defense will be transcendent. I DO expect an all defense bid his rookie year.

1.0y

Hmmm probably the best answer I’ve seen I agree that he will absolutely be an elite vertical threat on both ends of the floor if he can stay healthy and his mobility will make him an outstanding versatile defender.

The fact that he does have that potential of course is a great look if he can refine those skills I just dont see it as such a sure thing as most are chalking it up to be given what weve seen from him so far

mellted_cheese

573

1.0y

He’s a good FT shooter which typically indicates he can develop into a better outside shooter. His defensive ceiling is so high though that even if he doesn’t develop into a great shooter he projects as a top end rim running big with handles and feel for the game. I think Giannis is probably a better comp than KD.

zainsattar99

1.0y

Unrelated but could this also indicate improvement for Bam Adebayo specifically?

ElCapitanMiCapitan

1.0y

It really is disappointing that Bam hasn’t developed a 3 point shot. He is a phenomenal talent, maybe a bit undersized, but in this era, with the group of centers currently in the league, you have to be able to space the floor beyond the free throw line. I’m assuming he has proved incapable of it, as Miami is generally good about developing latent ability.

dostorwell

1.0y

He may be undersized but that dude sure can jump. He just explodes into the rim sometimes.

But somehow he doesn't take advantage of his strenght and size when guarded by small players. Settles for a step back midrange almost everytime. Annoying af

GarfunkelBricktaint

1.0y

Every time Bam gets the ball it's like he has only 2 possible outcomes:

Drive immmediately and dunk in your face/smooth layup,

Or option 2, hesitate and take a step back free throw line jumper that hits the rim like a ton of bricks.

Clutchxedo

1.0y

Miami have made two finals in the past four seasons

Warriors won with Looney playing a significant role.

I don’t think you need to be able to shoot at the five to win as long as your defense and rebounding makes up for it and you have shooting around you.

Happy-North-9969

1.0y

Yeah, I think bigs being able to shoot 3s is a nice to have, not a must have.

ElCapitanMiCapitan

1.0y

If Bam wasn’t undersized and the second best player on the team I would agree. At present he has the tools of a No 3/4 option on a contender, not a consistent 1 or 2. I think the outcomes display this pretty well, barely squeaking out of the east 2/4 years then getting pummeled in the finals.

1.0y

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ChelseaDagger14

🍰

1.0y

Bam is 26 in a few weeks and has been in the league six seasons under a top coach. I’m taking him at face value, there’s been discussions for years on him developing a three point shot.

Wemby is also shooting it a ton, so may improve it - while Bam attempted 12 this season

LlamaDebauchery

1.0y

The problem with the Giannis comp is that Giannis is a power player- he's so strong. He put on a ton of a muscle quick. Unfortunately for Wemby, putting on muscle might be a bit of an issue at his extreme length. We all joke saying Snack Randolph would bully him in the post all the day, but there's a thousand good reasons why that line of thinking is valid.

OneOfTheOnly

109

1.0y

do you not remember what giannis looked liked when he was drafted

LlamaDebauchery

1.0y

That's what I thought of too, but Wemby is way, way longer, and my current (non doctoral) understanding is that it's way harder to put on substantial muscle when you're just so goddamn long

Wonderful_Eagle_6547

1.0y

Ever seen Wilt when he was 21 vs. when he was 35?

1.0y

Compare rookie Gobert to current Gobert too

AlHorfordHighlights

1.0y

I don't think the Gobert comp is favourable given he also gets bullied by strong players. It won't matter as far as becoming a star goes but it's always going to be a weakness imo

1.0y

True but I wasn't going further than the visual difference on the biceps for example. Of course being bulkier doesn't mean a guy is physically stronger on certain aspects of the game. It can even be a problem, I remember Kawhi coming back one season looking bulkier than ever on his upper body but it actually seemed to have an impact on his game and he quickly decided to come back to his usual frame.

CraigMammalton14

1.0y

Not that wemby isn’t or can’t be, but Wilt is arguably the biggest genetic freak athlete in history so I’d put a hold on any comps to him yet.

Ababanfkslwbcj

1.0y

Not a guarantee at all. Giannis grew three inches as well. Not every skinny dude can just pack on muscle like Giannis and AD.

worksucksbro

1.0y

Giannis is the exception not the rule. Plus he had 5 inches shorter of a frame to fill out. His wingspan is also 8 inches shorter than Wembys

Soshi101

1.0y

Steven Adams, Embiid, Gobert, AD, Porzingis, Tatum, Jonathan Isaac, Hassan Whiteside, Mitchell Robinson, JJJ, even older guys like KG and Tyson Chandler. Go compare their college/rookie years to after a few years in the NBA, they all put on crazy bulk. Definitely not the rule lol.

buffalotrace

1.0y

Giannis literally was only eating partial meals and sharing his food with his family. It wasn’t he got to Milwaukee that he stayed getting his calories.

Moderator removed comment

1.0y

Tremor519

1.0y

It's not any harder to add muscle when you are taller, it just doesn't look as impressive. There is also the added injury risk when you are taller, so maybe Wembys's practical 'muscle ceiling' is a bit lower than Giannis', but I don't think he should have problems getting sufficiently strong for his height over time.

1.0y

Somewhere between Giannis and KD for me he really is his own archetype and even if he doesn’t improve to the level most think he will I still see him being at least at the level where you cant leave him open for sure.

The FT% is actually more promising than I initially found it to be I guess I had unreal expectations of how well players shoot free throws early in their careers/in general

Great answer nonetheless! I certainly agree that his floor is still pretty damn good

RayAP19

1.0y

The FT% is actually more promising than I initially found it to be I guess I had unreal expectations of how well players shoot free throws early in their careers/in general

Yeah, a friend of mine recently showed me how strong a correlation there is to players being good free throw shooters and good shooters, especially good three-point shooters.

Obviously you expect good free-throw shooters to be good from mid-range, since a FT is just an uncontested 15-footer, but the best free-throw shooters are also typically good three-point shooters also. Dirk, Nash, Price, Curry, Klay, Reggie, Ray Allen, Lillard.

Now, they're all mostly great from mid as well, but I think there are very few 80+ free-throw shooters who aren't great from either mid or three (Jordan, Wade), or at least good from both (pretty much everyone else).

Wemby's 80% FT shooting is the single biggest reason not to throw in the towel on his shooting just yet. Don't bury him before he's dead. Remember he also doesn't have the benefit of NBA-tier training, coaching, shooting instruction, etc.

1.0y

The eye test correlates too, Wemby has a pretty smooth shooting mechanic and it's a great base for improvement.

DamnReality

1.0y

Having a center you can’t hack is also very very nice

Corteaux81

1.0y

Honest question, OP. How much do you watch European basketball and without looking, what do you think Luka’s numbers at Real Madrid were in his last season?

(My point is, Wembamyama’s stats at 19 are extremely impressive and when you watch him - you see it. He was voted MVP of an extremely serious league for a reason)

TheMuleB

1.0y

Extremely serious is a bit much for the French league, it's a pretty bad league. It's still much better than the ncaa obviously but it's not a top European league at all. Still though, the fact that he played really well against Monaco (which is one of the best Euroleague teams and by far the best French team) in the finals despite their whole defense being tilted against him shows that he probably would've been very good in a stronger league as well. Probably wouldn't have been MVP, but he would've been a great player still which is impressive at his age.

Corteaux81

1.0y

It’s a better league than any non-NBA league in the US. The level of coaching, physicality and team-focused mentality is something that doesn’t exist in the US until you come to the NBA (and sometimes not even then). Like you said yourself, Monaco reached the Final Four in the Euroleague and he did good against them.

TheMuleB

1.0y

Oh absolutely, it's way more impressive than doing it in the NCAA or any of the other US leagues. I'm just pushing back on "extremely serious" as it is one of the weakest European leagues, it's not on the level of the Spanish, Italian, Greek or Balkan leagues at all, and probably isn't even as good as the Turkish or Russian leagues. However it is considered as the most physical league by most players, lots of athletic specimens though lacking in tall big men.

Monaco is the only actually good Euroleague team here, and they're pretty much unfair for the other teams. ASVEL should be on that level too, but they're badly mismanaged and terribly coached.

For context I'm French and have seen Wemby play in person a half-dozen times over these past 2 years. I believe he's gonna be an awesome player right away, I'm super high on him and think he'll average around 20ppg in his rookie season, on top of being one of the best defensive players. I just think the French league has been getting a bit overrated in this thread and am trying to give more context for those that aren't as familiar with it.

Affectionate-Ad2081

1.0y

His absolute ceiling is more a mix between Bill Russell and KD. He already has better ball handling skills than Giannis and can block shots outside the perimeter at a rate that Giannis doesn’t do

livelovelife23

1.0y

Giannis has really good handle. He’s def a better shooter than Giannis but don’t know about the handles.

urriah

1.0y

I certainly agree that his floor is still pretty damn good

This honestly is the scariest part. Some dude who can move just so happened to be 7'4". Hopefully he stays healthy.

Affectionate-Ad2081

1.0y

True, I haven’t seen anyone block shots like him both in the paint and on the perimeter since Russell

crunkadocious

1.0y

Giannis is incredibly strong though

mellted_cheese

1.0y

Yeah no comp is perfect, and certainly Wemby will get stronger as he develops. Broader point is just that I think a reliable 3 point shot would be the gravy that makes him an all timer. But there are paths to greatness without one.

Ecstatic-Buy-2907

325

1.0y

1) International stats are always toned down compared to nba stats because of the rules making it harder to score. His “pedestrian” stats are very good in European leagues, for example Luka averaged 16/4/5 (albeit in a harder euro-league), and his teammate Bilal Coulibaly, drafted 7th, only averaged 5ppg.

2) 3pt shooting is something that can be improved. His form is good and he hits free throws at a good rate, suggesting improvement from there

The biggest thing for me is his ability to handle the ball, which IMO gives him the taller KD comparison. Super coordinated, he plays and dribbles like your average 6 feet baller, except that he’s 7”3. Good footwork and not awkward at all, he moves very well and is obviously one of the best players defensively. Has potential to score at all 3 levels, which would transcend him into the superstar status of the nba

1.0y

International stars regardless of their stats are 'professionals' and receive unparalleled coaching compared to even best NCAA prospects. So I would add he is coachable, malleable and understand how to play within a team system.

His shooting will likely be fine. I bet his percentages are above avg for his position and usage as early as yr 2 because of the better spacing and teammates in the NBA. NBA he isnt playing with scrubs which works both ways but moreso in making the game easier for him.

he also put up good stats when playing for France and dominated current NBA players in the youth levels which also isnt anything to scoff at

1.0y

I would also add that the first paragraph, being coachable and fitting your talents into a team system is probably the most important skill of all of the above (but most people would overlook)

Tallywhacker73

1.0y

It's not quite as important as 7'5.

1.0y

7'5" is useless in the NBA you can't be mobile, coordinated, skilled nad have IQ

Tallywhacker73

1.0y

Yes, you do need other stuff. Like, if you're 95 yo, you probably won't be very good. Or if you're missing an arm or something. Nobody said height was the only thing that matters.

1.0y

You're kind of implying it but that's also one big important point concerning Wemby, he's is a hard worker, very conscientious and willing to take every advice he's given to get better. It's obviously not the main reason why he was number 1 but he has that superstar frame of mind and it matters in the eyes of scouts. This is an element that can turn a good player into a perennial all star.

johnniewelker

1.0y

I think more importantly, he is 19 playing with grown men. While that Metz92 team was optimizing for him, he still has to go against real professionals, so pulling 20 ppg is not something to sneeze at

Comicksands

1.0y

As Luka said, it’s often easier to score in the NBA. I think stats are not a good comparison

beforeitcloy

1.0y

Ultimately winning the MVP of his league is all the evidence OP should need to recognize that his numbers overall aren’t pedestrian even if the 3pt efficiency is a weak spot.

LoLz14

1.0y

Just wanted to say that Luka was out of this world in Euroleague in his final season. He averaged 22/6.7/6.0 per 36 minutes in Euroleague, which Real won, and he won the MVP title. That is much stronger competition than French league (MUCH MUCH), the only Euroleague team France has wrecked Wemby's team in the finals.

But, Wemby did have 24.2 pts per 26 in french league, and I do think that he freestyle a lot. His FT% is awesome so as you said that can be a good sign for him moving forward.

I think the 3pt shot is just a bonus on top of what he offers, his frame will make him a good scorer inside the 3pt line, his movement is great and can abuse slower defenders in future, and defensively he can be an all-defense candidate from day 1, all those things without the extended range are already more than enough for him to be 1st overall pick, but having that shoot would put him above the top as you said.

Uncle_Freddy

1.0y

Just a quick point, ASVEL was also in the Euroleague this year (they got absolutely shit on with a record of 8-26 while Monaco had a record of 21-13 but still).

Wembanyama’s stats are also muted by both the shorter French games (40 min vs 48) and the slower pace of play in the French league (I don’t remember the exact numbers but I believe their pace is something like 10-15% slower).

These factors, plus the generally tougher, more physical defense in Europe tends to mute stats, so the fact that he still averaged 21 ppg is a testament to how he was scoring in spite of his environment.

Wembanyama also had an unlimited leash to take some wildly experimental shots outside of the 3 point line this year, and while I think Pop can co will work with him to develop those shots even more in practice, we will likely see a more “traditional” shot selection from him from 3 for at least his rookie season, which should also boost his shooting numbers.

colonellaserdick

1.0y

Point 1 is what I wanted to say. You're exactly right.

I'll add that when Metro 92 (Wemby's team in the top French league had a couple exhibition games against Ignite (G-League development team that included Scoot and other top prospects), he dominated. Like he absolutely clowned them. Scoot also dominated before he got pulled early in game 2 fwiw. If anyone wants evidence of why Wemby went #1 and Scoot went #3, just watch them play against/with a G-League team that is literally full of highly-regarded young prospects. You'll see the levels.

IMicrowaveSteak

1.0y

Every 18 year old is a developmental player. What true scouts look for are holes. What are the areas that a player is likely to struggle with in the next 3-5 years? The reason Wemby is so valued is because he literally has no areas that aren’t improveable.

29% is awful from 3, but it’s more about looking at his form, fluidity, ability to get open and create space, etc. His shot will improve the more he focuses on it, based on these things. A guy like Scoot Henderson doesn’t possess the physical attributes or the form or style that gives scouts hope that his 3 point shot will develop.

It’s the same reason why there are college players who shoot 38-42% from 3 and no one raves about their 3 point ability, but then you see a guy like Kyle Fillipowski out of Duke who doesn’t actually make a high % of 3s at all, but it’s clear they will come along and that % is likely to rise in the NBA.

These scouts are paid incredibly well to look for this rather than just reading 29% and freaking out because out of a 300 shot sample size, only 80+! went in.

Fede113

107

1.0y

I think you need to watch a bit more film on him and not base your conclusion on stats.

The guy is incredible fluid for his size, can drible, has good shooting mechanics that extend to the 3 point line, while being almost 7.5"

I dont know if he is Kevin Durant taller or something like that, as people love to put tags on young players, but his potential is extremely high.

Also, he wont play as the primary defender on bigs, more as a help defender, because he can cover insane amount of ground in very little time. As you said, his frame will not allow him to guard a good strong post player ( not that there are many in the nba left).

Guys that can bully him while being a lot shorter will not be able to take advantage of that, since he can block their shots even under the basket, so only guys like Embiid, Jok and other 6"10 guys with some post skills will take advantage of that, and i dont think we will see him defending them very much, to not say at all.

He is a true franchise pontential player, and if he develops as expected he can be an all time great.

I think his first year his offensive game will not blow anyones mind, probably 12 to 14ppg, but his defense will be game changing and i can see him averaging over 3 blocks a game as a rookie.

nakedsamurai

1.0y

Agree with everything, but frankly Wembanyama should average 12-14 ppg on put-backs, dump-offs, lobs, and at the line alone.

Fede113

1.0y

Well, they will give him the keys, we will c what he can do, but I'm excited to see him in action.

nvbtable

1.0y

Would good shooting mechanics but poor shot making results be a positive though? Usually good form and poor results is lack of practice but that should not be the case for Wemby at this point.

Poor shot making and good consistent form is otherwise likely due to psycho-motor or depth perception issues, which could be significantly harder to fix than shot mechanics.

Successful_Priority

1.0y

He had an 80%+ ft rate in high enough attempts. He may not be an elite 3 point shooter hut he could be a good one especially catch and shoots

qkilla1522

1.0y

You took his best skill (defense) and diminished it. So yes it will seem “crazy”.

Wemby simply is Gobert but taller and moves better laterally. Projecting a rookie as an all time great rim protector is enough hype in itself.

Now take Gobert and significantly increase his touch, passing, dribbling and shooting. If Gobert could catch and finish over smaller players and could even passably shoot he becomes an instantly more valuable player with any offense whatsoever.

Wemby has Gobert level defense. If his offense is Wendell Carter Jr level or better he’s all NBA for a decade.

1.0y

I think I painted my post in far too negative of a framework/worded it very poorly TBF I have no doubt in his defensive potential or even his ability to be an All-NBA player I just dont see his offensive skillset reaching the heights most think it will. Perhaps I should have stated that much more clearly thats on me

I agree entirely with the rest of your points

qkilla1522

1.0y

Wemby’s offense is definitely his swing skill. He has the tools. Non shooter is so so so much harder to fix than poor shooter. Him taking 300 3’s is much more promising than him take 30 and making 12. If he gets to the NBA and works on his shooting and post moves even a little he can score 20 a game just on offensive boards, rolling and popping.

I don’t think Wemby is a high volume scorer though like Embiid or Jokic. He is a 2nd option on offense or a 1B unless he really improves his ball handle. I don’t see the KD comparison. Giannis maybe but it’s hard to project the amount of sheer power Giannis added to his frame.

Karl Anthony Towns is another great comparison: in college he played 39 games. Shot 8 3’s made 2. His rookie year he took 88 on 34%. His second year is when his shooting jumped. If Wemby can be KAT on offense and Gobert on defense. Even slightly worse than both on their perspective ends I think that is both reasonable and an amazing player.

TuckEverlasting89

1.0y

The hype is unreal for sure, but it sounds like you think he’s a bust. Would you not have taken him #1? Also, what is your projection for his career?

Narcoid

1.0y

I'm largely agreeing with OP, but I foresee his potential risk as higher than his potential reward for a championship window. I predict a similar career to Yao Ming. Higher peaks but less overall playtime because of his biggest question mark, durability. Height isn't great for durability historically, and he seems quite small which is even more concerning.

I don't know what teams were offering to trade to, but my first instinct would be to see what people were giving up for #1 pick. If there weren't good offers, I'd take him. If there were, I'd trade it.

1.0y

Id have taken him number 1 without a doubt I see him being one of the best most versatile defenders in the league and obviously a vertical threat on both ends of the court.

My main concern only lies in the fact that people are chalking him up to be some elite shooting/shot creating demigod archetype which, while he has the potential for, isnt really backed by anything convincing based on both the stats and what ive seen from him on the floor.

I see him as a 20/12/2blocks type player on around 50/32/85 splits for his career with a few all star/all nba selections to his name. Not a bust at all but certainly not the greatest prospect the game has ever seen.

Also this is only if he has a relatively healthy career which I do not see happening in the slightest but thats purely speculation at this point in time

1.0y

Shaq average 23/11/2.5..... and is widely considered one of the greatest centers of all time. If Victor averages that for his whole career (note: average, so he'd have a few seasons in excess of that) he will be a superstar. Patrick Ewing another one who averaged very similar, same story.

I need to check, but I think he'd be one of 5 centers ever to hit those marks (I need to check but I Think his company would be hakeem, wilt, robinson, shaq, duncan).

kenny3sticks

1.0y

I don’t think you’re wrong to be skeptical. He’s much more likely to be Porzingis 2.0 than a taller Durant. Wemby is gonna be dared to shoot from the outside and get pushed around on the inside by nearly every big in the league. We’ll see how he responds. He obviously has a ton of potential, but he’s certainly over hyped. Calling him the best prospect to ever enter the draft, as Woj called him, is crazy. Lebron is the best prospect of my lifetime and it’s not even close

Opening_Search972

1.0y

This subs talking about this kid like he’s Kareem coming out of college. Lets pump the breaks…

DragoBaggo

1.0y

Luka averaged like 31% from 3 in Europe the years he was actually shooting on high volume.

nikop

1.0y

That's about what Luka averages in the NBA too.

2020IsANightmare

1.0y

I think he'll end up being pretty good, but I also don't already have him in the HOF or in my top-10.

Some of the hype is stupid. He's not the greatest prospect ever. If he has literally half of LeBron's career (Five finals, two MVPS, two titles, two FMVPs) he'll make the HOF easy. People are asking where Giannis and Jokic fall on the all-time list with one Finals, two MVPs, one title, one FMVPs.

1.0y

Hahaha this is the best part of your post. Didn't he lead the league for points, rebounds and blocks.... 21/10/2/3 is not pedestrian in Europe.

I wish so badly we could see Europe v CBA. Americans love to believe that no competition could ever be better than even their youth program. I think most of the Euroleague teams and even a lot of the NBL teams in Australia, would dominate the CBA. But there's not really any way to prove that.

Comicksands

1.0y

NBA stats are inflated. Luka went from averaging 18 there to dropping 30/40 per game. Strict screens, travels and no defensive 3 seconds makes it tougher for the offence

richochet12

1.0y

THen again, you have bums in the NBA that are valuable players in Europe.

Sodapopa

1.0y

Good point!!

waynequit

1.0y

The main difference is the spacing. Shooters are just vastly more elite in the NBA which is why the floor is so spaced out.

mhoq

1.0y

It’s obvious that people who make posts like this know nothing about European basketball. Over 20 ppg is not “pedestrian” in Europe. Wemby was the scoring leader and blocks leader in his league that includes 3 Euroleague teams. Also DPOY.

1.0y

I don’t understand why everyone is saying this guy moves like Giannis or KD- all I see is a more mobile Porzingis, which is nothing to sniff at and he could be a productive player. But the hype train being led by ESPN has people thinking he’s literally 7’4 KD, which is just disrespect to KD imo.

Woj and the crew absolutely gassing this guy for months on end has turned me off tbh. I’ll believe the hype when I see it, as far as I’m concerned he’s another lanky 7’+er with pretty good mobility waiting to get injured, it’s inevitable at that height and weight.

heybdiddy

1.0y

I understand that he's got tremendous potential and is a pretty intriguing player. What I don't get is what is the great difference between him and Porzingas. Porzingas has already proven himself, he has value in the NBA, his salary and the recent trade show that but at the same time all the hype in on Wembanyama who doesn't shoot anywhere as good as Porzingas does.

1.0y

Porzingas is probably the best analogy to Wemby, skill-wise. And if he can play like Kristaps and manage to stay on the floor more often he’ll be an all-star. Nothing wrong with that. I just don’t see him as transformational.

quibble-stein

1.0y

He lead a historically bad team to the finals as a 19 year old in one of the top European leagues in the world while leading the league in points, blocks, and rebounds

Emotional-Peanut-334

1.0y

the french league is terrible

quibble-stein

1.0y

I’m sure playing in the French league is harder than college

phillip_of_burns

1.0y

I love the idea of him as a prospect. The kid is a freak of nature, and I hope he puts together a hall of Fame career... I just suspect that he'll spend a lot of time injured. I really hope I'm wrong though.

1.0y

Potential. He “can” be a bigger KD. He has the skillset, he just needs to improve which is expected of young players. His mind is also similar to Lebron in that he’s quietly focused on winning, which can be an underrated trait.

LegoTomSkippy

1.0y

Ignoring injury concerns.

If his shot never improves, he’s what? Rudy Gobert who traded his post defense for free throw shooting, good hands, and passing. His (non-injury) floor is incredible.

MrVociferous

🍰

1.0y

He’s tall, agile, and fluid and the NBA freaks the fuck out for those kinds of prospects the same way the NFL freaks out over QBs with a big arm. Same as the NFL, accuracy isn’t super important because maybe he’ll figure that out later.

His upside is taller, better shooting Rudy Gobert (career 64% FT shooter…Wembanyama shot 84% last season at the line) that maybe develops a consistent jumper.

And if he doesn’t, just being taller, better FT% Rudy Gobert is also pretty damn solid.

CallinCthulhu

1.0y

It’s the 80% free throw shooting.

A prospects FT% has a higher correlation with his shooting percentage in the NBA than their shooting percentage before the NBA.

thebigmanhastherock

1.0y

European stats usually look bad, because they play with different rules. This is why it's insane Luka didn't go no. 1 his stats were pretty great despite playing in Europe.

I believe in Europe big guys can just hang out under the rim. Wemby is really skinny and can't muscle guys under the basket. What is so impressive about him is his ability to display guard skills and wing skills really fluidly at his size. He is also able to be extremely mobile on defense and likely will be able to guard all five positions.

He is very young as well.

The idea is that his skills will translate extremely well to the NBA and by his mid-twenties he according to projections will be domination the league. He, however is not expected to immediately completely dominate the league.

Never_rarely

1.0y

He is nowhere even close to KD in terms of shooting ability at this point in their careers

KD shot 28% from three his rookie year

Hfcsmakesmefart

1.0y

Yeah but at college .404.

dL_EVO

1.0y

I think Victor is plenty talented and has major upside. I think the general sports media tagging him “the greatest prospect ever” and if all he amounts to is “Hakeem” and then he would be a failure.

All that hype is a bit much.

Flaky_Scar_8388

1.0y

I agree. The people that are saying he is a taller KD is lazy scouting. I would say though he is in the right place in San Antonio. Pop will put him in a position to succeed.

weszily

1.0y

ooh, 💡 this is a great sub.. 👍🏽 It’s refreshing to see some thoughtful analysis that isn’t coming from a media personality voice

Your__Pal

1.0y

I always have to ask.

Are we sure the 7 foot 5 player will reach his peak ?

The majority of those players at that size get hurt early and often.

Yao Ming played only seven seasons, and was healthy for about half of them.

funkycold13

1.0y

Yao Ming had to play every off season in China league so he was putting up a lot of minutes. Wemba is a lot lighter and advancements in training and diet are different than 15 years ago.

1.0y

Yao had a healthy build for his size. Wemby’s more like Bambi.

armadilloongrits

1.0y

There is no way he can live up to the hype.

Kawhi was a middling shooter before getting to NBA.

I don't think he will be nearly as good offensively as kd but his ceiling is fairly nuts on both ends. Nearly unblockable. Can dribble well for his size. Don't know anything about passing skills tbh.

If he stays healthy he's a 20 12 4 4 guy for 15 years and that to me seems like the basement.

MtnDudeNrainbows

1.0y

‘There is no way he can live up to the hype’

We did say the same thing about LeBron. But I wouldn’t take that bet.

armadilloongrits

1.0y

Fair, LeBron is built like mack truck though. The most durable NBA player ever. Wemby will not be that.

Stinky_DungBeatle

1.0y

Lebron also learned how to become an elite playmaker, developed a shot and was an elite defender all in the NBA, Wemby would have to actually develop alot to begin with.

Then you add that he's 7' 5" and the track record of guys at that height is a short career and he already has some injury setbacks, set the expectation low for "living up to the hype."

1.0y

Your eye test seems to contradict the eye test of analysts and scours in that department. And 29% in Europe with shorter 3 point lines and thus less space, isn’t that bad. Obviously it’s not good but for perspective Luka Doncic shot at a similar clip when he was in Europe. And Wemby’s mid range game and free throws show his shooting touch.

I’d also say his calling card is more his defence than his shot creation, the shot creation is just one part of why he’s such an anomaly.

Comparing the talent of wembys league to the CBA is also just disingenuous. He plays in the top French League which is essentially just a step below euro league in terms of talent. Lots of players bounce around between euroleague teams and teams in the leagues of France/spain/Russia etc for reference.

In short, he’s a 7 foot big that can handle, create his own shot and has showcased range on his shot all at 19 years old playing against professional adults. He has the baseline talent, the versatility and the physical tools; his potential is through the roof. I do agree though that injuries will inevitable be a huge concern with him. Fortunately he has the team that basically invented load management to help him with that, and he’s already aware of the risks and goes out of his way to do long, tedious stretches before games to avoid any possible complications

Solgiest

1.0y

But Luka isn't really a "good" three point shooter at all.

1.0y

Considering his volume and shot difficulty I’d definitely consider him to be. His percentages are only a hair below league average. He’s not Damian Lillard but he’s good enough to where it’s a very large part of his game and teams have a lot of respect for him out there and defend him as such which is all that really matters. Nobody’s expecting wemby to be a 40% shooter from deep

Solgiest

1.0y

shot difficulty

Taking a lot of difficult shots is a bad thing.

Considering his volume

High volume chucking with below league average % is a detriment, not an asset.

1.0y

Shot difficulty is rarely in a players control. Especially when that player is the sole creator on their team.

And higher volume means lower efficiency in general… whether that’s overall or from 3. Since leaving OKC, James Harden has shot 36% from 3, and like Luka the reason he’s considered a good shooter nonetheless is because of his volume and shot difficulty. So by your logic either harden isn’t a good shooter, or 1% is the difference between a good shooter and a bad shooter.

Solgiest

1.0y

And higher volume means lower efficiency in general… whether that’s overall or from 3.

Curry and Jokic?

1.0y

‘In general’ meaning referring to your average player. Curry and Jokic are two of the most efficient players of all time, obvious exceptions to the rule

Pirateshippingit

1.0y

I mean just answering the question in the title. What are you missing? Dudes like 7 FT 4 and ridiculous wingspan lmao it’s corny to say but it’s true that’s just something you can’t teach. I agree injuries obviously with his size and his frame are a concern and his 3 point shooting is inconsistent. However he clearly has the confidence in shooting the ball, and he’s good FT and midrange so I think he can def improve from there. Also again he’s 7ft4 with a crazy wingspan and he’s not that slow footed so he can be an absolute monster on defense for awhile. Idk how much I truly agree with the KD comparisons but that doesn’t matter to me.stats are different too playing in Overseas professionally specially in one of the better international leagues is different than college basketball. Hell even in college basketball the numbers don’t tell the whole story with young prospects. When I watch him play I don’t see KD or try to compare him to KD or like Giannis or whoever I just see someone who’s a freak of nature who if he stays healthy and improves his shooting just a little bit can be a great player for years to come.