1/2
I actually laughed because what are the odds exactly that one piece I was looking for is missing?
Ordered a bag of +100 geometrical chain links for my autistic son to replace his ‘1 blue square’ that he lost 💀
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I think the spirit of the question is about receiving a set that is missing a piece, and that piece is the blue square.
I could be wrong tho, If the question is “what are the odds that a set doesn’t contain a blue square?” (simply because they’re randomly chosen)then the odds are 16.8%
(1-(1/56))99 =16.79%
I am simply disagree with the assumptions you asserted in the previous comment. The real life numbers shown are very close to the theoretical one given random distribution, which makes me think that the bits are sufficiently randomly selected that the spirit of the question and the odds are the same thing. There are no grounds to assume that 1 in 100 is missing a piece, considering this is albeit small sample size set is missing 15 pieces when purple is included.
Well, the 1/100 failure rate was a completely made up placeholder value meant to describe the number of times 99 pieces were shipped instead of the intended 100. I wasn’t trying to imply I have any knowledge of what that failure rate truly is. I thought that was obvious.
I think our idea of “a missing piece” differs.
I’m defining the “missing piece” as the piece that’s not there when a 100-piece set only comes with 99 pieces.
You seem to be defining “a missing piece” as the absence of any unique color/shape combination in a set.
Yes, I misunderstood because the set having 99 rather than 100 has no significant statistical impact on whether the set includes a blue square or not. The packaging method probably has a +/- of a couple pieces, but it has no impact of the probability of the set missing the piece she needed, that is still roughly 16% +/- 1 taking into account the variance in quantity. Your whole premise is flawed as well as she states the set as being advertised as 105 pieces, so there are 6 pieces missing. But you strike me as someone that is unable to accept they are wrong about something.
I said earlier explicitly that I could be wrong about my interpretation of the question and then provided the odds of the alternative interpretation.