338canada.com/districts.htm
338Canada Federal Projection - CPC 218/ LPC 67/ BQ 38/ NDP 18/ GPC 2/ PPC 0 - June 30, 2024
Politicsits is probably the best they could hope for right now.
now we get to see 100 videos of even the CBC asking when Trudeau is leaving because they know their gravy train is ending.
I'd laugh if PP defunds CBC
Do you prefer media that's owned by (and serves) only private interests?
I saw the federal debate and wish it was dissolved so we could discuss actual issues in a fair and balanced way.
We got huge discussions around fake news on indigenous grave sites, and the only thing on the cost of living was housing as an investment vehicle, asking how dare anyone would bring down prices.
Dissolve it and spend the billions on rezoning housing and mass transit.
Canadians should have one public broadcaster that's ours. You may not like what's there, but that can change. Once it's gone, well, be careful what you wish for.
We should be striving for media that doesn't serve ANY interest. Corporate OR State. The same flaws you would outline against private interests are the same against state interests. In fact, when there is vast amounts of money involved, there will always be a natural bias towards who is giving the funding, whether that is the Government of Canada or Rupert Murdoc.
The feds do not run or direct CBC. They just pay for it, on our behalf.
Why do people forget that in a democracy, we are the state.
Papineau
Has went from safe to likely hahaha
Mount Royal is only leaning too, would be equally funny to see the Liberals lose that.
If "funny" means "makes me feel warm and fuzzy, with a soaring tickle of anticipation".
Papineau voters, you have the chance to do the funniest thing ever!
I'll do the craziest dance any of you motherfuckers have ever seen if that happens.
The funniest thing that has not been done since 1993
Pwnsauce on a fresh blue platter come 2025?
67 for LPC might even be high at this point.
That 67 should be 6-7 seats hopefully once election time comes.
I speak to people all around me and they still vote liberal nothing but… whatever shit policies this government does, in their minds the conservatives are worse and they are not even considered as an option. So until this election is called and counted I am not assuming anything!
Look at the last 9 years.
What have liberals or ndp done to make things better for anyone?
When they say the conservatives are worse how so? Is there anything other than the bs the liberals put out around settled issues?
The Liberals are handing the Conservative party a super majority on a silver platter and it's all their fault
Don’t forget the NDP’s role in this too…
Very true. It takes an irresponsibly terrible party to lose 25% of their seats while the liberals give away 90 for free.
NDP lifers will tell you it was worth it for the literal 2 page memo that the liberals branded as “national pharmacare”. The only party laughing harder than the cons is the liberals. They have bought themselves 2 extra years and possibly lifetime pensions by typing up a 2 page memo that they wiped their asses with.
NDP are just Orange Liberals at this point. Their only critique about Trudeau is that he doesn't take his catastrophic policies far enough -- if we just triple-down on total dysfunction, enormous taxation, and meritless policy, things will just come full circle and start working again!
To the bottom of the totem pole you go, along with the Red Liberals. Stay there and don't ever come back until the next "the rich need to pay their fair share" charlatan isn't flagrantly waving around his Rolex and sucking up the most money from taxpayers despite doing absolutely nothing.
It won't take long before another one of those guys pops up.
It has been beyond frustrating for many of my NDP supporting friends whenever Jaggy says "we'll fund <insert crazy expensive program> by taxing the 1%!"
Okay, cool, how so? Increasing their income taxes? Their capital gains taxes? Taxing unrealized liquid assets worth greater than $X?
"We'll do it by taxing them!"
...
All talking points, no substance.
They see they are down in the polls and need to create some strong policy to win over undecided voters...
So they introduce capital gains tax, which disproportionately goes after a strong source of votes, the older and wealthier retired and soon to be retired
5 years wont be enough time to undo the damage of the prior 8
This is bad but now they have to question even the seats that appear "safe", devastation incoming.
Giant blue wave incoming.
Liberal - "Safe": 20
Hmm, we sure about that?
Probably Montreal seats
10/20 of them are on the island or directly adjacent to it.
Ottawa-Vanier would elect a mailbox, only because it’s red.
With Mona Fortier being the face of a very unpopular return to office mandate with public servants, I’m hoping the other parties see to running decent candidates in Ottawa-Vanier.
It would take quite a bit for the Liberals to lose Montreal given the current situation. The Conservatives largely don't have a shot in Quebec outside of Quebec City and a strip of agricultural land along the St. Lawrence river. The people of Montreal won't vote for separatists so the Bloc is out. Quebec is not going to vote NDP as long as Jagmeet Singh is around wearing his Sikh religious garb. The Greens can only secure seats if they manage to recruit superstar candidates that have a lot of popularity at the local level, and even then they often need outside factors to help out eg. Mike Morrice only won his seat because the Liberal candidate was forced to withdraw due to sexual harassment allegations and it was too late for the Liberals to nominate a replacement candidate.
As such, the Liberals kind of remain the default vote for a lot of the Montreal ridings, even with how badly they have screwed up. Maybe the housing crisis in Quebec will get worse enough in the next year that even Montrealers say no more and vote for someone else, but somehow I doubt it.
That is very true, however, Mount Royal has the Conservatives behind by only 6%, and the Bloc will by all likelihood at least keep their seat, probably gain one, perhaps even picking up another in Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, while the NDP also keeps their seat, so even Montreal is not impenetrable for them.
Quebec is not going to vote NDP as long as Jagmeet Singh is around wearing his Sikh religious garb.
Forget the garb. The dude straight up said that people don't care about federal vs provincial responsibilities as long as things get done. Saying shit like that is suicide in QC.
People only voted NDP for Jack Layton in order to show the door to Harper, JS behing a Sikh isn't why his not winning, that being said his attitude toward Quebec and it's laws doesn't help him neither.
It keeps getting worse for the Liberals. I can't see any way that the Conservatives win less than 200 seats.
Frankly, if they get any less than 215, they have at least flubbed it somewhat.
How can Singh keep propping this government up? He is polling worse than they are. Canada wants change and now, criminal to give the Liberals another 15 months.
One of the trends I've been noticing recently in the polls it appears that voters are blaming Singh for Trudeau and turning against the NDP along with the Liberals.
It would be historic if the Liberals were wiped out and the NDP lost a ton of seats in the same election. They need to drop this government now to have any chance.
Generally in minority govs there is a stop gap for extremely unpopular governments. The Confidence Vote.
Jag has all but nullified the entire concept with his rubber stamp agreement. And people feel it.
Oh yeah, if Jagmeet Singh knew literally anything about Canadian politics or history he'd know that no minority government has gone close to the full term because Canadians quickly start to blame the party(ies) that are inflicting an unpopular government on them, sometimes more than the actual governing party itself.
It's unfortunate for the NDP that he was educated in America.
Say what you want about any of the Liberal MPs, but they keep Trudeau in power because he's their leader and they believe in him. Jagmeet Singh knows him to be unfit to lead this country, has said it multiple times in public, and yet still chooses to inflict him on Canada for reasons he himself admits are opportunistic.
WEF member along with Trudy
Singh knows he's cooked. All he's doing is ensuring his pension.
Singh cares about one thing and one thing only. And that is Jagmeet Singh.
Probably because he's polling worse than the Liberals.
67 way too high. Should be <15.
Gotta be real bad if both /u/TwitchyJC and /u/squirrel9000 are up in arms about "PP bad"
U/squirrel9000 posts basically nothing but misinformation
67 LPC ? I can't believe anyone will still vote for them ...
Don't underestimate the hatred for Pollievre.
Every few weeks the media tries to paint him as either a racist, homophobe, elitist or woman hater and it works on some people.
Some people are so ideologically and morally bankrupt they'd rather see the country burn than face the fact their guy messed up.
Same thing with O'Toole when he ran. And I'm old enough to remember Harper and "The Secret Agenda", a litany of all sorts of vile things he was going to do the moment he had a majority. Oddly enough, after getting his majority he proceeded to do not a single one of those things, and the ABC idiots shut up about it for a while.
Why does Quebec historically love the LPC so much?
Pork barreling and cock blocking energy and trade for the west.
pretty much. liberals were the first, and continue, to rob the west to give to quebec. they have recieved over $150 billion in equalization since 2010.
BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland and Labrador have received $0 in that same time. yes. ZERO while quebec got $150,000,000,000. yet theyre the 2nd most populous province.
oh, and they also block every energy project from alberta as much as they can, while importing from the middle east and taking $$$ from the west.
doesnt seem fair to me.
When gas was jacked well over 2 dollars. Conservatives, NDP, voted to reduce some of the carbon taxes to give canadians a break. Same as many european countries did at the time.
QC has their own system, so it would have been unaffected.
And thus, Bloc voted against it along with the liberals. Cause, ya kno, fuck us, right?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poilievre-carbon-tax-heating-1.7019822
edit: Oh. And their little hydro power "deal" with Labrador is scummy as fuck.
Which is another reason why we need senate reform.
Give each province an equal vote to put a check on parliaments power. The entire country shouldn't be beholden to what draws votes for Ontario and Quebec.
150,000 people having the same amount of power as 15 million is insane, that's far worse than even the US between Wyoming and California
It actually makes sense. It reduces the incentive to just ignore the periphery. The problem is better solved by adjusting incentives coming from the center to encourage people to move out there.
The problem playing out in Canada now has always been an issue for pure representative Democracy an makes inherently unstable system.
No it makes zero sense. Why should the voice of someone from PEI count literally 100 times that of an Ontarian just because some British bureaucrats in the 18th century decided on some arbitrary colonial boundaries? How that seems compatible with basic notions of democracy is baffling to me. And it's a pointless discussion anyway because Senate reform means opening up the constitution. And the way it was patriated, and Mulroney's subsequent failure to amend it all but guarantees it's political suicide for anyone who tries.
The very short version is government money and government jobs.
LPC gives them infinite money and special treatment
Same reason why Alberta and the Prairies liked Harper so much. The policies they enact greatly advantage the provincial economy.
Quebec doesn’t like the LPC more than Ontario does. The LPC’s polling averages in Quebec are similar to those of Ontario and below those of the Atlantic provinces. LPC support is extremely concentrated in Montreal, guaranteeing them a lot of safe seats. Outside the island, the Bloc and the CPC are much more popular.
Unless I missed it, there doesn't seem to be a breakdown of votes, just a projection of seats.
If you look at the results of this poll from four months ago, you can see that the Liberal party is not popular in Québec. It was polling lower in Québec (21%) than in Canada (25%).
Because Quebec likes public services (Hydroquebec delivers the cheapest electricity in North America), while Conservatives are ideologically opposed to them.
Trudeau, Biden and Macron destroyed in a week. Holy shit.
Edit: ..Wow, add one more fatality .. the Pro-Palestiner’s thought it was a good idea to shut down the Pride Parade.
Wouldn't count Biden out everyone but the people who where never going to vote him anyway will forget by November , most people won't be voting for Biden anyway but against Trump
Now unfortunately given the performance I'd say there is definitely a chance he screws up again close enough to the election to sink himself
There is no way Biden will debate again. He's done. The guys got dementia. It was clear to everyone watching, especially the west's enemies, Russia China and Iran. Expect them to ramp up their wars and proxy wars in the next few months. Taiwan must be freaking out.
At this point the democrats are scrambling to see how they can get Biden out and replaced with someone other than Kamala. Keep in mind that you don't just show up with dementia like that. A lot of people back to have known. The media have to have known. They covered this up. It's a terrible look and one that they might end up regretting.
He's been showing signs of dementia since at least the last us election. It's just gotten to the point now that there's no denying it.
The most embarrassing thing which most people haven't seen is how his wife was handling him after the debate. The guy can't even go down a half step without worrying about falling.
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3d
Biden will 100% be retired whether he’s aware of it this minute or not. I’m not sure Newsom is the answer in terms of fiscal responsibility but he can put a sentence together.
Biden will 100% be retired
PM me. I will bet you a lot of money he will not.
Yeah you’ll pay in Bitcoin. I’ll just write down your username and check in later.
I wouldn't bet. But tinfoil hat me sees, Biden winning and being president for a year and then stepping aside. Allowing for the Vice to step up and be the first Woman and a person of colour be president for three years.
I sadly do not see Biden defeating Trump a second time, as much as I despise the latter. Trump is toxic but Biden really fumbled the bag as current incumbent. He is not coming across well at all currently.
You love to see it
Interesting to see how the pendulum is swinging in a different direction in the UK with Sunak going down this week as well.
LOL
Wait...what do the batshit "protestors" have to do with federal politick?
No idea how the libs are still projected to hold this many seats when they recently lost one of the 35 seats that they held through the 11’ election, against an opponent that barely campaigned.
NDP, how is that holding onto Liberal's coat-tails thing going for you?
Losing 7 seats despite their patron also massively losing.
Never thought I'd say this, but a conservative government couldn't come sooner. It truly is disappointing we have to wait another year and 4 months before it happens.
If you asked me a month ago, I would have thought the election would continue being dragged out to Fall 2025.
Given the last week after the news of Monday's byelection results, it's absolutely looking like there is going to be a very sudden end to the Trudeau regime. It could come in the form of a loss of confidence in the house, or he could call a snap election during or shortly after the US election concludes, so he can point fingers and compare PP to Trump. Calling an election this fall would also allow them to keep the very few seats they might win, which they may as well say bye to if they wait until the Fall 2025 election date.
Yeah, but isn't there something to do with MP's pensions and delaying the next election by like a week due to voting or something along those lines?
I know the context is piss poor, I just cant remember the details and i'm currently working and dont have much time to read up on it.
Many Liberal and NDP MPs were elected for the first time in Oct 2019 and need to sit the entire term to qualify for their DB pensions, which kick in after 6 years of service. Not coincidentally, the LPC has tabled legislation to delay the date of the election in Oct 2025 by one week beyond the regular four years which would allow those pensions to vest.
This was the answer I was looking for, thank you.
They are laughably trying to say it’s due to the Diwali holiday, when in reality they could simply call the election a week earlier, two weeks earlier, or at any other point between now and then.
I swear we had an election Easter week one year.
They are laughably trying to say it’s due to the Diwali holiday
Which, given the current political climate towards immigration from regions where Diwali is widely celebrated... is certainly a choice.
Pretty sure 90% of the people who need that and have seats at risk are Liberals. Also, I remember reading that the NDP ultimately decided to vote against the delay, though I may be wrong on that.
Singh is one of the people who needs the election to be in 2025 to get his pension.
Yeah, but isn't there something to do with MP's pensions and delaying the next election by like a week due to voting or something along those lines?
Bingo, follow the money.
Someone has to tell the emperor about his new clothes first...
The NDP isn't going to let the government fall with their poll numbers as they are. I would be surprised if the Liberal government completely runs out the clock though, they'll look to capitalize on something, anything in the last 6 months or so. The NDP might pull the plug too to seize the initiative, but only in the last few months unless something happens to their polling.
The Liberals would really love for interest rates to start dropping so average joe homeowner feels good about that and that's been a waiting game. The economy isn't exactly being co-operative on that one though as inflation is being more stubborn than anyone expected (went up last month). That would help them stem the losses even if winning is off the table.
I'm guessing in the vain hope that their numbers wont fall further as they keep attaching themselves to an unpopular government.
Upside is that Trideau has turned the Liberals into a regional party representing the so-called Laurentian elite but not much else. From there it’s not much further to oblivion.
Hey, it takes the time it takes for those pensions to become vested. The welfare of the country will just have to wait.
The Liberals will be removed this Fall.
It truly is disappointing we have to wait another year and 4 months before it happens.
More time for our "representatives" to grind us into dust.
I wish I could feel the hope that some people feel that when the current mess is out, a better thing is going to come. I've had that hope in the past and was wrong... Everytime.
The liberals deserve 0. The pace at which they plowed the middle class into the ground should make them toxic for the next decade. I can't remember the last time I witnessed such a self-serving government. And that's with Doug Ford in office.
Speaking of Ford, 338’s projection with the most recent Abacus poll suggests he could get 86 seats were the election called today, 3 more than he got in the last election and 7 more than he holds now.
r/Ontario assured me Ford was literally Hitler
67
Supermajority incoming
The only two Liberal fortresses in the GTA: Scarborough and Brampton. Coincidentally the two trashiest parts of the GTA 🤣🤦♂️
Libs will definitely lose Brampton, talking to the people here both immigrants and non, they hate trudy
lots of New Canadians there
There's nothing Canadian about them lol. They don't integrate with Canadian culture, they don't share Canadian values. Let's call them what they really are.
I am quite glad that LPC fortress Scarberia seems to be breaking now after the riding redistribution. 2 of the ridings are potentially up for grabs now, including Salma Zahid's, and I'd be overjoyed to see her gone.
I'm from that riding and it always surprises me that it is a liberal stronghold because it is the most consistent bellwether riding in the province picking the winner since 1971.
Brampton
I wouldnt even consider brampton a liberal fortress anymore, polling suggests its going to be a tight race. A few seats from brampton should still be safe, but most are a toss up
a few steps closer to Bloc as official opposition, yes
Tabernaque!
according to this; trudeau, singh, and may all have a sizeable chance to lose their seat
yikes!
I'm surprised LPC is projected to win that many seats.
Libs could create a miracle and send everyone a million $ wouldn’t make a difference they are done .
We still need to perform a Dipperectomy in BC, would be awesome to make the so called liberals extinct
Ndp is cooked.
Give it a couple more weeks for Nano's rolling polls to catch up.
45 seats for the Liberals. You heard it here first.
LOL! The Bloq has more seats than the NDP. Looks like it’s not just the Liberals that need a new leader.
The BQ already has more seats than the NDP.
Who is still voting Liberal? 🤦🏻♂️
That's how the LPC has been to Canadians for the last 9 years.
The NDP has got to work harder to eliminate the Liberal seat count and set themselves up as the official opposition. Several provinces have thrown the Liberals out of the running and the NDP needs to follow suit at the Federal level.
It‘s doubtful that Singh has the capacity for it as leader.
They just need to get behind workers and support increased worker wages like they used to do.
Simple as that but they can’t do it for some reason
They desperately need a new leader. If Singh did ever have the potential to really boost NDP popularity and votes, I feel it’s now long gone.
Im actually hoping that the Block become the official opposition.
Not because i think it would change anything but just to see the liberals faces and mostly, since i live in Alberta, just to hear the comments from the hardcore conservatives here loll..
Not sure you would get the reaction you think. They have been the official opposition before and Alberta mostly just wants the feds to stay out of provincial matters which the Block is generally supportive of.
It's happened before
Good, I hope legal Canadians have woken up (FINALLY) and kick this pos pm to the curb.
Bring it!
Baffles me that 67 is still projected, we need a repeat of the post Mulroney vote. 🤷🤷
67 is still projected
There are still areas in the more densely populated areas which tend to vote liberal as a general trend.
Between city dwellers and old rich people, the liberals will always have a good number of safe seats
What is going on in Scarborough that they are so Liberal Loving?
Singh: "I'll keep propping up this minority government until my party goes up in the polls!"
His party in the polls: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6rdVcxgVoQ
This site used to have people comment which was interesting hear from locals on their thoughts. For example, Central Nova is marked as likely conservative. I think Sean Fraser is still popular locally and I don't think the conservatives have a nominee yet. Historically, this riding has been convaervative with Peter McKay, his father and even Brian Mulroney holding the seat. Sean has been popular with folks even thinking he is PM material. Although I think he hitched his wagon too close to Trudeau.
SF is pretty much loathed federally.
I loath him. He is a good speaker and raised though the ranks quickly. Honestly, I have respect as he is one of the few non-rich or nepo babies we have. He has a modest background. Under the right mentorship, he could have learned to think for himself. Under Trudeau, he become a parrot and I find it hard to believe he believes in the things he is put in front of Canadians to say. Yes, he is loathed federally but wondering if he is like Elsie Wayne and can survive a liberal wipeout.
Nope, not with how the mood is in Atlantic Canada right now. There will be no Liberals surviving in rural seats outside of maybe 1 or 2 Acadian ridings.
I live next to that riding and have friends and people I work with there. Out of that lot of say 10 people, only one of them said Fraser was doing a good job. The others couldn’t wait to vote him out.
Soon the subreddit will switch complaining about literally everything the liberals to do complaining about literally everything the conservatives do.
No, they'll still complain about the Liberals. Ontario's nearing the end of the conservative phase of the political cycle and they STILL blame Wynne surprisingly often.
It will be interesting to watch, we're approaching a fairly critical juncture in the next five years and things will get worse, possibly much worse, before they get better. I'm curious as to who ends up taking the blame for that -not for this election cycle but the next one where a lot of structural issues will be worse, without a clear scapegoat.
Ontario still blames Bob Rae and he hasn’t been premier since 1995.
Part of me is hoping a bad result for the Liberals, followed by a Conservative majority for 5 years will give the NDP the kick in the pants it needs to become the working person's party we deserve...but I'm self-conscious enough to realize that's more naiveté than optimism.
This sub has shifted back and forth over the years. Its one of the few that actually tends to follow the national polling direction.
You can basically open up the polls and if a trend has been sustained for a long period of time it will be reflected on here.
Its one of the few that actually tends to follow the national polling direction.
Until you find a totally organic, grass-fed free range thread full of people who mysteriously go to the wall for the LPC despite their deluge of scandals and accelerating unpopularity. It widens your eyes. Not strange, suspicious or dubious at all.
Im not really sure if the liberals ever had a chance, but going after their own voters with some new policy is probably not helping their case.
That capital gains tax is going to push older and wealthier people to the conservatives despite that age and wealth range typically being strong for liberals
There is a fair amount of liberal voters who are very wealthy and benefit from a lot of the things they implement federally. The capital gains tax was a huge slap in the face to those people
Trudeau is gonna need a miracle like magically reversing the housing crisis or the cons are going to have bungle it hard with some major PR disaster just like Roe vs Wade for the Republicans.
More than a year is a lot of time for things to change. Hopefully Trudeau isn’t able to con his way into another victory through sweet promises and a pretty face as the passage of time makes old failures less relevant.
I wish Trudeau was stupid enough to call another election so we could get this over with now
This is basically a full blown rejection of the carbon tax and positions on fossil fuels right? I would like to hope everyone knows immigration won't change, if anything the corpos who cozy up to tories love cheap import labor.
Welp, goodbye Pornhub.
Week #47 of the conservatives peaking too early
Ppc will be putting up some numbers shortly.
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Well that’s not surprising at all