November 2025 Texas Independence Referendum (TEXIT) results
2000swhat's the turnout on this referendum?
Using statistics from the 2024 Voter Registration Figures, Texas’ voting age population is 21,925,627. The number of voters in the TEXIT ballot measure is 11,293,472
Therefore the voter turnout is 51.51%
About as much as you can expect from a US election
I’d be surprised by that low a turnout. When Quebec had their referendum in 1995, 93.5% of people turned out to vote- the highest turnout in the Province’s history, before or since.
American and canadian political cultures are different
it's not so different. and it's a different kind of election.
Average Texas turnout numbers:
And Biden doesn't like... already send in the National Guard to prevent the referendum from happening beforehand?
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1mo
The Spanish government apparently didn't get that memo in 2017, LOL
Decent chance they wouldn't have won. Even if unionists didn't boycott it, I think a lot of polling back then put support for/against independence at 50/50
Whenever a ballot measure is put in front of the voters’ eyes in a general election, from personal experience, the trend is always towards the status quo. In Kansas, an exit poll for the anti-abortion ballot measure was around 50/50 support/oppose. For the election itself, the results were 59% in favor of preserving Kansas’ existing abortion laws
Not like the secessionists had actual teeth to go through with it. If I recall it was a big nothing burger that amounted to "It was just a prank bro".
Edit: It did earn them an arrest warrant if I recall correctly.
Additionally, Joe Biden declared in October that the United States, should Texas seceed, "will not hesitate to inflict swift and coordinated military intervention, in the hopes that Texas will rejoin the Union." This remains one of, if not the most controversial speech in his administration, seen by the Democratic Party as an unnecessary escalation in response to a ballot measure that was unlikely to pass.
IRL Biden does not/would never escalate anything lol. Very interesting scenario though!
I’m a bit confused on why those communities loyal to Trump and the GOP chose to vote to stay with the Union. I would think those would be more inclined to vote to secede.
I can tell it’s Alternate History as there’s no way in HELL that idiot Biden wins reelection
Ah yes, we all know how much Americans love convicted felons 😊
Unfortunately they do, we’re so cooked 💀
I thought this was real for a second 💀
oof
You thought it was 2025?
I didnt see the title and sub lol
Same. I was like "How the FUCK did I miss this"
Man,this map looks like a pixelated photo of someone head fleshes that was cut by an ink draining pen..
Bruh, how did you know? I used Inkscape to create this map
i was scared for a second that this was real.
It wouldn’t be. Secession is illegal since the Civil War. There won’t be a vote.
I mean if we are talking alternative history if the U.S. ever gets to the point state secession ballots are legitimately considered again beyond concern trolling (aka reaction to Obamas reelection) then something is seriously wrong in D.C. Once one succeeds its hard to stop the momentum without some good luck or clamping down by the military.
Or something is seriously wrong with Texas…
It only takes one to start the flow of either reducing a nation to a rump state or putting it in the history books. Otherwise the world map would look quite different today.
Edit: Speaking of history books it looks like people need to pay attention to the Lithuanian secession and how it effectively triggered the counter reformists in their failed putsch against Gorbachev.
Yeah and there wouldn't be a vote for Britain to leave the EU either, let's be realistic
If the woke succeeds from the unwoke america, if in power. The same thing from the civil war can happen. Ie what happened to the south.
me too, I was scared it didn't pass!
As Ben Shapiro would state
Facts don’t care about your feelings caused by my random frame of mind when I created this hypothetical scenario
Ah, but the Texiteers will make it so it is by COUNTY.. not popular vote.
🤣 That’s pretty good. The good ole’ land can vote argument
Happy Cake Day!
There's no way he would say "rejoin the Union." We already had the war that confirmed that states don't have the option to leave the Union in the first place.
tbh the Southern states MIGHT have been able to properly secede if they didnt fuck around and find out.
They shouldn’t have chose traitors, rattlesnakes and alligators as political representatives. Duh
nah i mean if they hadnt bombed Fort Sumter
With their rattlesnakes and alligators
Exactly. Texas v. White explained that the confederate states never left the Union.
Honestly curious how this would affect Texas' internal politics
Could easily see Dems doing what the Scottish Conservatives did: shifting to the middle and making Unionism their main issue
This would provide problems for the GOP though as it'd be split between conservative unionists and secessionists.
If this was another country with a more sensible voting system they'd likely just split, but alas we have FPTP so they'll probably just compete with each other within the party
I never noticed how well Texas tried to have square counties until that fucking 45 degree angle out east and the entire west side of the state
I think it’s a boundary line of the old Republic of Texas, which was divided into the east and west
Huh. Neat. Didn’t know that! I’m still interested in why the western bit was so half assed. It’s like, a majority pentagons with some fucked up bullshit thrown in
Any chance that 3 new states are created: Houston, DFW, and SA-Austin?
I think there is something written in the Constitution where Texas can’t secede, but is able to split into five smaller states for some reason
Otherwise I wouldn’t rule your suggestion out as a possibility
It's not the Constitution, it's the act of Congress annexing Texas: https://www.tsl.state.tx.us/ref/abouttx/annexation/march1845.html
Third. New States, of convenient size, not exceeding four in number, in addition to said State of Texas, and having sufficient population, may hereafter, by the consent of said State, be formed out of the territory thereof, which shall be entitled to admission under the provisions of the federal constitution. And such States as may be formed out of that portion of said territory lying south of thirty-six degrees thirty minutes north latitude, commonly known as the Missouri compromise line, shall be admitted into the Union with or without slavery, as the people of each State asking admission may desire. And in such State or States as shall be formed out of said territory north of said Missouri compromise line, slavery, or involuntary servitude, (except for crime,) shall be prohibited.
But presumably there would be a lot of legal debate as to whether that option applied in perpetuity.
Surprised that Bell County stays relatively stagnant given that you've got quite a few that were redder than it flipping (Ellis, Grayson, Kerr, etc.) and the significant military presence in Killeen. Same goes for neighboring Coryell, though it's a notch redder IRL than Bell.
The redder counties which flipped are mostly border counties. I’d imagine the citizens there being more likely to travel across state lines to work/see family (especially in Wichita Falls and Texarkana). This could be a demotivator towards independence once folks in Wichita Falls, Texarkana, Beaumont, etc. realize they will have to cross national borders in their day to day life
Killeen/Temple in Bell County are near the center of Texas so international borders aren’t as much of a factor. Being any swing towards the left this drastic in an actual election would certainly flip Bell County blue
Also glad to see someone as eccentric about county to county politics as I am!
I refuse to believe East Texas is that blue and Hispanics are Conservative by nature.
I prefer they go
I still believe that, should Texas secede, it will be the worst thing to ever happen to the GOP in America
Trust that Kenedy county would vote to leave (third most south eastern county in the RGV) there’s no glaring reason that would tell you it would vote to leave but it would because Kenedy has a weird habit of voting against whatever wins statewide like 75% of the time or in presidential elections where they just vote against the candidate that wins the election as a whole
Oh my gosh! Now we know that this is gonna be alternate history and not a prediction
FYI I already knew that
Oh I wasn’t sure you knew that… (I thought that was just some super niche political fact that I know because I don’t touch grass a lot) 💀
Same lol! The exact opposite county is Clallam County, WA
Most Texans won't say anything until voting day. Not sure if procrastinating or if they just don't want anyone prepared for the answer.
Do you have sympathizers ... and potential joiners ... in any neighboring states?
No referendum, but the potential sympathizers and joiners are most common in the neighboring states in rural areas, particularly Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana
Why did the border counties remain?
Mostly Mexican immigration, and the fact that a good portion of these blue counties also voted for Biden in 2020 and O’Rourke in 2022. Not all, but a good portion
Why would they vote no ? Wouldn’t the Mexicans prefer independence with an opportunity with reunification with their home (Mexico) since an independent Texan state would quickly become a failure.
I can’t speak for their position but I don’t see immigrants trying to leave a nation wanting to be part of the nation they left, unless they choose to return in the future. Granted, I’m aware a lot of Mexican immigrants are primarily in search of work and not making America their home for the rest of life
Is there anything I’m missing?
Mexicans in that border area frequently travel to the other side and vice versa. Them reuniting with their home would be something that benefits them. Also some Latin do Immigrate to stay, but Latin America immigration to the US is primarily seen as a cheat code to life, as in, let’s say you are a poor working class Guatemalan, you want to climb the socioeconomic latter, but in Guatemala it would be hard since you have no skills nor abilities since you did not receive a lot of education. So you immigrate to the US to work a “low skill” job, a very similar job to the one you were working back in Guatemala the difference is, that you are getting paid a significantly relative higher wage, plus you are getting paid in dollars which are worth more than your quetzal. So now you go back home to Guatemala and literally jump from the bottom of the barrel to middle or maybe upper middle class. The thing is, that to achieve that you need to work for a solid decade and be very conservative with your spending, but most immigrants don’t realize that, they are fed propaganda which tells them that in one year of hard work they will return to their homes as millionaires, hence why so many immigrants come to the US to stay one year, but end up doing decades or sometimes settling in once they have kids or realize they will never achieve their dreams back home and would rather just stabilize here in the US.
LORE DETAILS:
Following Biden's re-election in 2024 thanks to a better than expected performance in the key swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, a ballot initiative to declare the Republic of Texas as an independent nation was narrowly passed by the Texas state legislature in 2025. While initially dismissed by much of the Texas public outside of a few right wing circles, as an eccentric measure, the oil price shock of 2025 resulted in increased sentiment towards independence with the idea that Texas could be self sufficient with petroleum production without having to share it with the other 49 U.S states.
Additionally, Joe Biden declared in October that the United States, should Texas seceed, "will not hesitate to inflict swift and coordinated military intervention, in the hopes that Texas will rejoin the Union." This remains one of, if not the most controversial speech in his administration, seen by the Democratic Party as an unnecessary escalation in response to a ballot measure that was unlikely to pass.
In spite of this October surprise, Texan voters decided they were not ready for independence from the rest of America. Hispanic communities friendly towards Donald Trump and Republican policies overwhelmingly voted in favor of remaining part of the Union, with counties along state lines also shifting dramatically in favor of remaining part of the Union when compared to past elections. Voters in urban and suburban regions, in spite of dislike towards the Biden administration, remained skeptical of how their own lives would be impacted as part of an independent state. Both pro and anti-Secessionist voters have blamed foreign nations for interfering with the results of this measure.
Feel free to ask additional questions if you have any!