When you looked at the chart did you happen to notice the area of translucent color about the line. This is the 95% ci - did you happen to notice how they overlap.

That would place the estimates within the margin of error and hence are statistically indistinguishable.

But thanks for providing another source disproving your claim.

Listen to focus group interviews with soft, undecided voters and you will hear them make .

I'm sorry but it's not possible to be in the fence and make "fairly clear eyed and critical assessments of both candidates". If that's something they were capable of they wouldn't be undecided.

For some, Trump’s perceived vigor, relative to Biden, does sway them

I wonder if that perception has anything to with CNN fucking this chicken for two weeks straight while ignoring Trump?

Instead of giving them an option to feel positive about

I feel positive about Biden. But I'ma be honest here, if your intent is for Democrats to win replacing Biden will do the exact opposite of that.

It’s not stupidity and buying into MAGA

It’s disillusionment, feeling unheard, and that their vote is pointless

So you claim not be buying into MAGA propaganda but express feeling the exact thing their propaganda is aimed at inducing? Ok...

Counting on the people to vote for a fucking train wreck instead of just staying home is dangerous

Once all that propaganda has convinced everyone he is a train wreck rather than the actual train wreck is exactly the point.

Don't you find it odd that no one ever mentioned all the moderate Republicans who might sit this one out? Or all the independents Trumps felonies l, hell his own dementia will turn off?

I hope we all get to feel nice and smug about being right when Trump wins

The only thing that would diminish the enjoyment of schadenfreude is the fact that I and everyone I love would have live in that world too.

Actually the latest poll has him up there points so who are you trying to fool.

Also note worthy is that 3 of the 4 polls there show them within the MOE, with one of those showing a tie on their point estimate.

The only poll there showing Trump leading is from polling firm your own link notes as right biased so....thanks for proving yourself wrong I guess.

I think you misunderstood me, I understand all about probability and polling. I'm simply illustrating the uncertainty in his models.

ABC interview were both objectively terrible

Hum.. that's not what I've been seeing.

So you've never been down to co springs or to the eastern plains? Or eastern slope?

Hey if they're stupid enough to fall for conservative propaganda and are unable to understand the consequences of the their vote (or non-vote) then he's it's entirely their fault.

Like the kid who puts his hand on hot stove or pot warmer despite being told it was hot and it would burn them. You don't blame GE for making the stove or outback steakhouse for trying to keep their shit warm. You blame the dumb fuck kid who doesn't listen and thought they knew better.

Does blaming the victim come easily to you or do you have to work at it?

Honestly son well be blaming the people to dumb to come out and vote. Just like we did Jill Stein voters. Too bad these people didn't learn their lesson the first time.

Many voters on the margins of the Pro Democracy coalition that he built in 2020 and still needs in 2024 do not see it the same way.

Yeah but we can't fix stupid. People will always fall for propaganda.

Personally, I think it’s absolutely delusional to pretend he will not have at least one more public meltdown

As opposed to Trump's one more meltdown today?

Yes let's blame America because other countries went to war. What kind of bullshit is this?

Everyone acts like Biden is any better.

Because he is

The first time he ran for president, he had to drop out because he was a serial plagiarist

And this looks similar to Trump does it?

I can't forget that he is the mastermind of the 1994 crime bill

I remember when the Russians were pushing that noises back in '20. Also the anita hill thing. To bad they forgot to check to see if he voted to confirm Thomas.

He also lied just as often as Trump during the debate

I guess you could say if you doesn't pay attention or don't know how to count.

he is just as much a fool of shit as Trump

Da all people here in pub in great state of Chicago think so too.

No. They will not bother voting

Then it will be their fault and it's them who I will blame. I would hope that after all this these people are smart enough to not fall for propaganda but you're telling me otherwise.

If the lefties here feel unheard, they will just stay home

They're welcome to do so, and well all know who blame when they're rounding up brown people, Criminalizing gay people, and forcing our children to prey to their god.

New York, New Hampshire, and Colorado swing states

First new york will never be a swing state

Second New Hampshire and Colorado have always been purple, every American knows that.

I'm stsrting to think the media want trump to win, this appears to be meant to get us to stop calling for biden to step down.

Starting to? I'd say the fact the CNN has talked about nothing else for two weeks now should be a dead giveaway.

We've now seen twice that he is incoherent and detached from reality

Twice? Was this second time here in this reality.

Sure bud

Is nobody really concerned about the fucking fact that if we take the White House at their face-value remarks, a cold knocks our President out this much?

Given the alternative, no, no I'm not.

Imagine a critical geopolitical event; imagine negotiations between Zelenskyy or Ukraine or Palestine and Israel and time-differences cause this to be past 8pm and Biden has a cold...

Id take Biden having a cold dealing with this over Trump and any rational honest person on this side of the Pacific would agree.

NY state is turning into a battleground state,

It's not

Only people that want Biden in the race are those that say “I will vote for Biden no matter what

I thought it was all of us who've been paying attention and understand the consequences of a second trump presidency.

These people are just as responsible for Trump as Trump voters because they have enabled Biden during every stupid decision he made.

Nah if Biden loses it'll be because of people like you pushing this bullshit narrative and CNN who hasn't shut the fuck up about it in two weeks.

Last but not least - yes 538 aggregates have had margins of error in the past two general elections.

This sentence makes no sense, I don't think you understand what an MOE is. All polls all the time have an MOE.

It's because the poll gives you a point estimate based on who took the poll. But that's entirely a random draw. Therefore inorder to estimate the true population you give the point estimate with the MOE.

Say Biden has 51% support. That means 51% of the people who took the poll (weighted of course) but If this poll has an MOE of +/- 3 points the true population mean has a 95% probability of being between 48 and 54.

He had Hillary at 90% ....

Maybe if CNN keeps fucking this chicken for another week

You can't get everything you want.

I'm sure the electric sharks that all worked in those revisionary war erra airports agree.

But not Trump? Interesting