WhichBike: Which bicycle is right for me?

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A word of caution about the "Bicycle Blue Book"Announcement

The "Bicycle Blue Book", commonly abbreviated to BBB, is a recurring thing in comments on /r/whichbike concerned with putting a number on the value of some used bike. Quite a few of us have long had issues with BBB being used to that end. Thanks mostly to /u/guy1138 who wrote 90% of this post (I revised it and added minor details), we now have a longer explanation on what BBB actually is, and what the problems with it are. A TLDR can be found at the bottom.

What's the deal with Bicycle Blue Book?

Bicycle Blue Book (BBB) is a website run by a used bike dealer in San Jose, California. Their business model is to buy "trade-in" bikes from high end bike shops that don't deal with used bikes. Here's how it works: A customer brings their old bike to the bike shop to trade in on a new bike. BBB gives them a price and the bike shop boxes it up and ships it off to BBB. The customer gets the credit on a new bike, the bike shop gets a new bike sale without the hassle of reconditioning and trying to sell a used bike.

They provide an online "value guide" that lists bike values by brand, model, model year etc. They advertise it as "The cycling industry's definitive valuation authority", and the name is a deliberate allusion to the Kelley Blue Book, which is a reputable value guide for used car values in the US. To put it mildly, opinions on how useful BBB is are... split. Regardless, the numbers in there often get cited on this subreddit (and elsewhere).

So what's the problem?

There are multiple issues:

  • Conflict of interest: the same company who is buying bikes is also claiming to be the authority on used bike values. Not surprisingly, their "private party" values are way lower than actual sales prices on Craigslist, Facebook Marketplace, Offer-Up, Ebay, Pink Bike; etc.

  • Data provenance: They claim to have data on "millions of bike sales" that they base their values on, but it's not clear at all where this data comes from. Instead, it actually just seems like a fairly simple depreciation schedule on bikes based on MSRP (RRP for our UK users) and type of bike, e.g. a 5-year-old mid tier hybrid is worth ~40% of MSRP, a 5-year-old road bike is worth ~55% of MSRP, etc. Kelley Blue Book, which reports values of used cars, has access to wholesale auctions, used vehicle sales, and registrations reported at US state level. BBB do not have that as this data simply does not exist the same way for bicycles.

  • International variance: r/whichbike is international, with many users from countries like Canada, Australia, and the UK, but also the rest of Europe and the world, really. The same bike model and brand will not be sold for the same amount of money in every country, due to taxes, membership of free trade zones, availability, and a whole host of other factors: and this variability in price only increases when we look at used bikes. For the same reason, it is important that users state which country they live in when they ask for an appraisal.

  • Regional variance: Even within the US, there can be stark differences. For example, a triathlon bike is way more valuable in Miami (100+ triathlons/year in Florida) than it is in Utah. Likewise, a full suspension mountain bike has lots of buyers in Denver, but way fewer in a beach town.

  • Trends: We have all seen how "gravel bikes" became a thing, grew to be more and more popular, and started evolving - and how sellers have started to label everything that isn't an Omafiets as a "gravel bike" to attract more hits and get a higher price. BBB does not really take into account which bits of the market are especially "hot", despite this definitely making a difference.

  • World events: These can change prices significantly, be they something like a trade war with tariffs put on certain goods, or that little thing called Corona which caused a massive boom world-wide, with accompanying shortages and inflation across the entire market. BBB does not take this into account.

  • Erroneous data: Sometimes, their data e.g. on the original retail price of a bike is also just plain wrong, which in turn means all of the "depreciated values" for used bikes will be wrong too, even by their own standards.

How far off are the values then?

Generally, most used bike sellers agree that the BBB values are low, but still reasonable for newer bikes, around ~3 years old or newer. After that, they start to drastically over-depreciate - to the point where most bikes over 10 years old are "worthless" according to their values. As an example, a 2010 Fuji Cross Comp is $210 in "excellent" condition. That's about the same cost as full tune up at a bike shop, including basic consumables; tires & tubes, chain, cables & housing, brake pads & bar tape. It's completely unrealistic to expect to find a 10-speed cross bike with an aluminium frame and carbon fork in "excellent" condition for only $200. (This bike sold here for $550 last fall after being listed for less than 3 weeks). For our UK friends: $210 is £160... yeah, good luck with that.

So it's a lowball estimate, I should use that to negotiate, right?

You might get lucky and find the person who doesn't know any better, or someone who is moving and under a lot of pressure to sell. However, most of the listings are cyclists who upgraded or re-sellers who know that the Blue Book value is pretty far off. If the bike is priced close to market value, it's going to sell eventually and they have no incentive to take a lowball; especially if they've gone to the trouble to take decent pictures, write a description and post the ad online. We've seen this time and time again on /r/whichbike over the last 2 years where someone finds the "perfect" bike, but they low-ball and miss out.

TLDR please, I don't have all day!

BBB is a private company that purports to tell you the value of used bikes, by model and age. There is an obvious conflict of interest as they also buy used bikes and therefore directly profit from telling you they're not worth that much. Sure enough, their "values" are consistently significantly lower than the actual market value, all the more so if the bike is >3 years old. The numbers appear to stem from simply taking the original retail price and depreciating it (heavily). Consequently, they do not take into account regional or international variance in local bike prices, trends, or events like the Corona pandemic. Additionally, it can happen that the retail price all their assumptions are based on is simply wrong. This means BBB values are not really any kind of reliable or even relevant metric, and it would be better to go by what similar bikes are actually selling for on platforms like Ebay or Gumtree, adjusting for differences.

Pinnedby WolfThawra
273
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2.2y
2022 Specialized Allez vs Trek Domane AL2 for Triathlon

My local bike shop has a 2022 Specialized Allez e5 base model for $500 brand new.

I am looking to get in to triathlons and don’t know anything about bikes. I had another shop recommend the Trek Domane AL4 but AL2 is the most I could probably afford.

Should I go with the Allez deal or would I be better suited the the Domane AL2? Any other recs welcome.

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32m
Out of shape and new to this. Recommendations?

I’m a 5’4 210 lb female with short legs and fat thighs. I want to get a bike but don’t know the basics of where to start, even what size to get (26? Smaller? Bigger?). I know the best advice is to go to a bike shop but at the moment, and I’m feeling vulnerable even typing this, I’m very embarrassed of my weight and lack of fitness level/coordination. I’ve always been very uncoordinated and I was made fun of for it as a kid so I’d rather buy something off of Facebook Marketplace, get a little bit confident, then go for a better bike or fancy adjustments after where people actually see me on a bike.

I would be using it just around town (SoCal, very few hills) on the bike path and general neighborhood. Probably after dark so nobody really sees me since I’m self-conscious. Down the road I’d love to be able to add a kid’s seat for my 4 year old but that is like a year into the future in my mind so not a now thing or even a first bike thing.

What would you recommend?

Forever gravel/all-road/adventure bike

I'm coming up on the 'end' of my weightloss goals. I have 25 pounds to lose on a 150 pound weightloss journey. To reward myself, my goal has always been a bike. I'm happy to build or buy.

My requirements are pretty straightforward. Steel, carbon fork, 2x drivetrain, and clearance for 50c tires. At the moment, I'm considering a few bikes. The Fairlight Secan, Standert Erdgeschoss, Curve Kevin of Steel, Brother Mehteh and the Sour Purple Haze.

I want this bike to be my "forever" frame. I'm happy to look around at other manufacturers, and would love a few more recommendation! I would like it to be from a smaller brand or manufacturer.

Gravelbike up to 2000€ with accessories

Hi. Unfortunately my Gravel Bike, was stolen and now I’m looking for new one. I want to spend up to 2000€ with accessories (porter, fender, lights, lock, pedals). I know my budget is tight but do you have any recommendations? Maybe even for used bikes?

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Is this a good deal?

Is this a good deal?

https://www.facebook.com/marketplace/item/419485444231926/

Idk if the price is right. I am thinking a traily bike, around this budget. Seems like a decent deal.

Wich bike out of these?

Hey there,

I was looking sometime long for a bike to get back to cycling. Budget went up and down and I think I found a pretty good deal.

What do you think?

Giant TCR Advanced Pro 1 2019 https://bycl.app/en-us/mobile/bike/792539

Or should I get any one out of these:

https://buycycle.page.link/f5vJWqjsVssqWKEAA

Giant TCR Advanced 0 Di2 or Specialized Tarmac Comp Di2 ?

Hello guys, which bike from this two you would chose ? thanks

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5h
Beginner bikes under £500?

I'm a beginner, haven't owned a bike since childhood.

My budget is under £500, but ideally under £350 if I can as I need to get accessories and attire. Secondhand market where I am (scottish highlands) is quite stale, or out of my price range. Would like to buy on the cycle to work scheme so a retailer that is part of the scheme is preferred.

I am looking at mostly at hybrid bikes, will primarily use it for day rides on trails, gravel tracks etc with some road use. Probably won't be much climbing/mtb at first but given my location might branch into it. There is the possibility that I may use it to commute if all goes well too, 4 miles each way on a minor B road.

Not sure if relevant but I am only 5'1 (154cm) so I will need a frame suitable for my height, some I've previously looked at start at 160cm, not sure if I'm missing something there!

These are some of the bikes I've considered but not sure whether they are suitable.

https://www.decathlon.co.uk/p/riverside-500-hybrid-bike-light-blue/_/R-p-300777?mc=8608509&c=prussian%20blue_charcoal%20grey_fluo%20flame%20orange

https://www.decathlon.co.uk/p/hybrid-bike-riverside-120-low-frame-mint/_/R-p-323601?mc=8577926&c=teal%20blue

https://www.decathlon.co.uk/p/women-s-27-5-inch-light-aluminium-frame-mountain-bike-white/_/R-p-300809?mc=8405317&c=ultra%20white

Open to all suggestions, can be from any site as long as they deliver to Highland. Thanks in advance!

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5h
Trek Checkpoint ALR 5 vs Salsa Warbird (at the same price)

If you could get either one of these at the same price which one would you get?

2019 Canyon Endurace CF SL 8.0 Di2

canyon

I mainly ride road, I had a cervelo but the frame got cracked last year when I got hit by a car and I've been riding around on my beater aluminum road bike

Thoughts on the price and what to look out for with a Canyon? I've never had electronic shifting before, anything I need to check on with it being 5 years old?

Sellers description

2019 Canyon Endurace CF SL 8.0 Di2 Size Medium Ultegra Group Set Mavic Tubeless carbon wheels Brand new Schwalbe Pro One Tires New bar tape recently tuned by professional bike mechanic includes Wahoo Element Bolt computer Good condition, professionally maintained. Pedals not included

Asking $1200 obo

Marin flatbar vs polygon drop bar

Level of cycling Can't say I'm a noob since I've used to do an endurance cycling In my teenage years, so I'm pretty sure I can get used fast with drop bar if I wanted to

Price range Probably as much as Marin DSX 2, so 1000+, but I don't mind saving up some more. No secondhand bike, cuz it's my first bike since the last time I rode one

Intentions of biking Trying to explore areas/places that I wouldn't be able to reach with my motorcycle due to muddy/unpaved roads, and seeing some rice fields around my area. And will join endurance/gravel event in the future if there's any

How far will I ride and how often I'm trying to ride as far away as possible cuz I just moved to a new place, and wanted to know my surroundings. Probably gonna ride it on weekends only, since I also go to gym. Don't wanna exhausted my body to much. Maybe I'll try around 20-30km back and forth first to test my cardio

Riding condition Bunch of potholes, broken roads, unpaved, muddy, dirty, basically, I don't think a road bike will fit for my area, considering the condition of the road. Even when I'm riding motorcycles, I can't even go beyond 50 without sudden brakes to avoid potholes

What I've checked out https://www.marinbikes.com/bikes/2023-dsx-2

I was already fixated on this, since it's within my budget, and the riding position isn't that far away from my background, which is MTB riders, but then, my LBS recommend me this bike:

https://www.polygonbikes.com/path-x-adventure/

Because he said it's already comes with Shimano 105. I don't know how significant is the upgrade compared to the Marin, but from what I know, drop bar gravel paid more than flat bar gravel for the same specs. BUT, some people said that flat bar are just hybrid bike, and hybrid bikes tends to be a piece of shit bike, because it's just an overpriced XC bikes. Is it worth for like 200-300 dollars upgrades for Shimano 105?

Rose Backroad VS Canyon Grizl
Hello everyone, after not owning a bike for a long time, I am currently looking for a new bike.
I spent the last 3 weeks reading through test videos, so my shortlist fell on the brands “Rose” and “Canyon”.

The price of the Rose is €400 higher than the Canyon. Since I like the Rose better purely visually, I would like to know whether the components justify a higher price or whether it is just the brand that is so expensive.
You can see the individual components using the following links.
Of course, a test ride will decide which bike I feel better on, but I would like to know whether both bikes are good value for money.

https://www.canyon.com/de-de/gravel-bikes/adventure/grizl/al/grizl-8-1by/3467.html?dwvar_3467_pv_rahmenfarbe=R075_P02

https://www.rosebikes.de/rose-backroad-al-grx-rx610-1x12-2709731?product_shape=roasted+olive
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