I firmly believe that the moon is one of, if not the best celestial body in the solar for economic development for the next few decades. Here are the industries that will come to play a key role in shaping a lunar economy, 

Science 

Scientific research would be the nearest-term reason humans are setting back on the moon. Certain scientific processes and analyses currently require humans to work in human-run laboratories, the Perseverance rover’s return samples being an example. At Mcmurdo Station in Antarctica, which has existed since 1956, about 1000 scientists and researchers can inhabit it during the summer months suggesting a continued demand for scientific research. Though getting to the moon would likely be far harder than getting to Antarctica, the moon isn’t limited by the dozen or so manned capacity of the current ISS, which has had to ship all its components from Earth. On the moon, new structures could be constructed more readily than ISS expansions. This all could lead to a permanently inhabited facility ranging from having a few dozen to a few hundred scientists at any given time within the next few decades.  

 

Tourism 

The ability to set foot on another celestial body is, and probably will be for several decades, an amazing feat of human ingenuity and innovation. Currently, only the extremely wealthy can afford to fly beyond or to earth orbit. As the cost of launches decreases, proportionally more people would be willing to spend their cash in visiting the moon. Though it will likely be decades before your average Joe can visit at any reasonable cost, technologies like airlines have democratized access to travel and vacations. Though there are reasons to believe that moon expeditions would run into a wall of cost reduction due solely to the amount of fuel required to launch a human into space, there are currently 56 million US dollar millionaires in net worth in the world of which 1.5 million have net worths of greater than $10 million. Getting a payload into LEO currently costs somewhere around $1500 to $2500 per kilogram, or, $127.500 to $212,500 for an 85 kg human. Projected out, the cost per kilo could reach as little as $100, or $8500 for our 85 kg human, which is cheaper than most first-class long-haul flights today. If we assume that it costs about as much to ship fuel to a ship in LEO to reach the moon, the total cost could still be well under $20,000, about the same as a luxury vacation to a premium resort. This in tandem with the rise in high-net-worth individuals, should be enough to sustain a budding tourism industry. 

 

 Fuel production 

Fuel production is one of the industries that early on would have immediate payoff. Because it takes less fuel to get from the moon to near-earth orbit than from the earth’s surface to near-earth orbit, resupply missions to the moon would be able to deliver more weight at the same price, and that the price per kg of payload beyond LEO would decrease. Overall launch capacity would increase, putting a premium on fuel that might otherwise be economically expensive to produce. The immediate usefulness of producing fuel just to improve resupply to the lunar base also has significant long-term potential for growth in our ability to send people, probes, and mining expeditions pretty much anywhere beyond low-earth orbit.  All that is needed is scale and capital to be deployed on the moon to make it worthwhile, something that with such a breadth of usefulness should be one of the first priorities in fueling a lunar economy for the first few decades. 

 

Mining 

Mining is probably the best publicized reason for going to the moon. Helium-3's relative abundance in the lunar regolith and its potential for nuclear fusion is, however, likely several decades away and depends on the development of commercial fusion technology. In the near future, it would be possible to extract rare earth and other materials in ways that do not cause environmental degradation. In the short to mid-term however, successfully mining for rare earths would have primarily geopolitical consequences, given that much of the world’s current supply of these minerals belongs to China, a rival of the United States.  

 

Manufacturing 

There are some favorable conditions on the moon for manufacturing. One advantage is the lack of both weathering and strong gravity which could make plants much larger and more efficient to build. Nearby deposits of valuable rare and non-rare earth minerals could in the long term rival such production on Earth in terms of efficiency. High temperature differences and the lack of gravity could make some industrial and metallurgical processes easier and conditions on the moon bring some promising benefits in chemical and pharmaceutical research.  

 

Space construction 

Building structures at or above low earth orbit could be helped greatly by launching fabricated materials from the lunar surface for the same reason as launching fuel to outbound ships would provide an industry for itself. The main structures that could be built are either space stations, space repair facilities, or, perhaps much further down the line, full on settlement ships journeying to distant regions of the solar system. 

 

In-situ production/Services 

Around 70% of non-farm payroll Americans work in the service sector, which makes up around 80% of the US’s GDP. Sectors such as healthcare, government, agriculture, administration, IT, energy, education, finance, hospitality, retail, agriculture, construction, maintenance, storage etc., will always be in demand no matter how big or small the population of a future lunar colony would be. If Earth economies are any guide, most people living on the moon would eventually be involved not in the main extractive or moon-specific industries, but in vital support capacities that make life livable within a reasonable degree. 

 

To conclude, the moon offers a wide variety of economic opportunities in a breadth of sectors, each of which could justify setting up a lunar colony by themselves. Feedback appreciated.