www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-06-29/joe-biden-is-still-democrats-best-chance-to-beat-donald-trump?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTcxOTg0NTM5NiwiZXhwIjoxNzIwNDUwMTk2LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTRlVDMFZEV0xVNjgwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI0QjlGNDMwQjNENTk0MkRDQTZCOUQ5MzcxRkE0OTU1NiJ9.xtDirjyuxnaXmMNlRMTb4o2OijrvVWied4jf-ssuIJM
Replacing Joe Biden Is a Fantasy Democrats Must Abandon
Soft PaywallAt this time Biden is not stepping down nor do I expect him to. Have you seen anything from Allan Lichtman? It's worth a read.
If Trump wins it will be because the American people didn't care to do the one thing that will stop him: vote. I'm tired of having to try to convince people to care about their country, their lives, their well-being. It's like we are treating the electorate like children who we need to lead along by the hand. Are we adults or not? Sorry, venting.
The "walking corpse" - which I think frankly, is hyperbole - has had a highly successful 3.5 years in office. He may not debate worth a pinch of shit but he knows how to run a country.
I have - I follow Allan Lichtman very closely, and am a huge believer in his 13 keys model! I'm looking forward to what he ultimately predicts roughly a month from now.
If his model is to be believed (which I think it is), the main things that could tank Biden right now are the Israel issue and RFK Jr, should he start getting more than 10% in the polls. Key 12 however is another issue - the charismatic incumbent key is currently ranked false. That key would instantly flip true if they replaced Biden with Buttigieg, but would remain false if they went with Harris. In an election as close as this one, something that small could decide the outcome of the election by flipping just a handful of votes in key swing states. At this point, simply flipping key 12 would be just enough for the Dems to win, regardless of whatever might happen with Israel and the protests or with RFK.
The walking corpse thing may be hyperbole, but I think it's also clear that the White House staff has concealed the full extent of the problem from the public at the same time.
I think Biden has been effective nonetheless, and that that's because he has an excellent supporting cast, from west wing staff to qualified cabinet members to democrats in the house and senate. A stark difference from Trump, who constantly chased away qualified professionals (just ask James Mattis or Rex Tillerson), who was hated on Capitol Hill, and who even tried to kill his own Vice President. That's the difference between Biden and Trump. However, I don't think all that is enough to put to rest many people's serious concerns about Biden's capacity to serve as President.
Finally, yes I agree people need to get out and vote, and yes they need to be more active in primaries and local elections for change to truly take root. But the political environment also needs to change, and both parties need to start encouraging competent, skilled individuals to run for office. And we need term limits so that people like Mitch Mcconnell and Nancy Pelosi don't just coast through 40 years in congress - it needs to be 12 years max, and sink or swim - either do your job or you're out.
At this point I'm voting for not just a man, but a party, the policies, the admin and... well, honestly the country. They could "Weekend at Bernies" with him and it would be insanely better than any Trump presidency. Especially with SCOTUS.
Honestly we blew it in 2016. We got caught up in a shit ton of stuff that just didn't matter. Heh, Bernie may even have won the primaries if all of his supporters had voted in the primary. (Less than 15% did.) But that's in the past. We have one job now. Keep Trump and the GOP out of office. Whatever it takes. Even if they have to prop up Biden like they did FDR to give a speech.
I don't disagree! I'm not a US citizen unfortunately, but if I was, I would vote for a sack of expired potatoes before I voted for Trump. If it comes down to that simple binary choice, then so be it.
But I think having a candidate as flawed as Biden also presents a serious risk politically. Many independent and swing voters despise Trump, but they also have serious doubts about Biden's fitness for office. If enough of these voters stay home, or god forbid vote for Trump, then that presents a very real and plausible scenario where Trump does win the election. And then all the prognostications about him ending NATO, or letting Putin win or dismantling democracy, could come true.
The dems have blown it many times. I'm glad they didn't run Bernie, because he is too far left to win, but Hillary and Biden haven't been much better. Truly inspiring leadership is needed, and it has to be someone who appeals to disaffected independents and even moderate Republicans if we're to chart a new course for the country.