www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-06-29/joe-biden-is-still-democrats-best-chance-to-beat-donald-trump?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTcxOTg0NTM5NiwiZXhwIjoxNzIwNDUwMTk2LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTRlVDMFZEV0xVNjgwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI0QjlGNDMwQjNENTk0MkRDQTZCOUQ5MzcxRkE0OTU1NiJ9.xtDirjyuxnaXmMNlRMTb4o2OijrvVWied4jf-ssuIJM
Replacing Joe Biden Is a Fantasy Democrats Must Abandon
Soft PaywallThey really should replace him. Joe is a nice guy and all, and he’s had a long and storied career in public service, as well as a difficult and troubled personal life. However, it’s clear that at 81 years old and counting, he’s just not up to the task anymore. Voters can smell that a mile away. Biden was the right man for the job in 2020, but that was 4 years ago, and now running him risks handing the election to Trump. The first party to dump their 80 year old candidate will win, and since it’s clear the Republicans have no interest in dumping Trump, it’s on the Democrats to ask Biden to step aside gracefully.
If the Democrats are going to win, the path to victory runs through the Rust Belt. It’s likely that Georgia and Arizona - and perhaps even Nevada - are lost to the Republicans. So the path runs through Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and the top of the ticket needs to be someone who can win those states.
For this reason, the democrats need to run Pete Buttigieg. Unlike Harris, he actually appeals to these states, having lived and held office in Indiana (he’s also now a Michigan resident, which could actually be an asset). He’s also a white guy, and he’s moderate, and in 2024 I don’t think him being gay will elicit too much attention, because it’s not like he talks about it every 5 minutes. Unlike 2020, he now also has added federal experience as Transportation Secretary, and has been one of Biden’s most effective lieutenants, putting to ease concerns about his youth (if anything, I think voters are now more concerned with running candidates who were born before jet planes were a thing).
It should be him, because running Kamala will hand the election to Trump, and running anyone from outside the administration will be a tacit admission that the administration has failed, and that won’t look good either. To ensure black voters don’t feel spurned though, keep Harris on as VP. She seems to have learned from a few of her earlier missteps and can probably stay on in her role as VP, but at the same time, she simply cannot win as the top of the ticket.
If the Dems successfully execute this reboot, they’ll be able to defeat Trump once and for all, as well as chart a path forward towards ending the country’s divisions and ending the gerontocracy that paralyzes government. We’ll see what happens.
There's no one. No one is coming forward. No one can be chosen. The RNC will fight it tooth and nail. I understand the frustration, but the reality is that it is up to us. The people. The "people" in "of by and for the people". The judicial system won't save our democracy, the congress won't. Not even the presidency. It is and always has been up to the people. Biden is the choice for now, but with greater involvement and more active voting there will be more choices in the future. Be informed, be involved, be a voter. Literally 90% of people ignore primaries, 50% generals. Almost half never vote at all. This is up to the people to solve and there's only one way to do it while we can: vote.
It’s down to Biden himself - only he can make the decision to step aside. There is still time for him to pull an LBJ, but he needs to act soon if this is a possibility. And needs to be told by those around him that this is for the best. If Biden steps aside, the DNC has procedures in place to pick a new candidate.
It’s also clear that the White House staff hasn’t been entirely honest with the public about Biden’s fitness for office. That’s a separate issue, but if this isn’t addressed, it will destroy Americans’ faith in their government.
At this point, something needs to be done, because Trump indeed is a deranged lunatic and manifestly unfit for the presidency. But Biden is also unfit. The voters are begging for a younger, more effective candidate, and the DNC has an opportunity to give them that, but only if they act quickly.
No it's not. That's an erroneous assumption. The RNC will fight it tooth and nail and then we are tied up in court cases instead of moving forward.
This is our bed. We made it. We made it every election when barely half of us showed up. We made it when more people didn't vote than voted for either presidential candidate over the entirety of my lifetime. We made it in 2016 when we couldn't figure out buttery males didn't matter for what was at stake.
The American electorate, through their inaction, caused this. And it is only they, through their action of voting, that can solve it. But because people have neglected their duty for so long it will take a while.
Well, if Biden steps down, what are the DNC supposed to do? Still run a guy who has decided to no longer run? There are legally legitimate ways to tie this up then, but again, it's all contingent on Biden agreeing to step down. It will be hard to convince him to do this, just like it's kind of hard to get grandma or grandpa to give up the keys to the car. It usually takes an accident before they agree to do so. Well, we just had an accident on June 27th. Will Biden hand over the keys, or will he drive us off a cliff?
You're right though, if you want something to change, don't just complain, but do something about it. That's what it will take.
Sadly, if Biden doesn't step aside, a Trump victory is looking increasingly likely. Furthermore, if Biden stays on, he likely won't be able to serve another 4 years, meaning President Harris. Neither result is particularly appealing to the public, hence why I'm positing something entirely different: a completely new candidate. Since that's unlikely, it looks like we're either going to get a walking corpse or a deranged criminal as president. Pick your poison.
At this time Biden is not stepping down nor do I expect him to. Have you seen anything from Allan Lichtman? It's worth a read.
If Trump wins it will be because the American people didn't care to do the one thing that will stop him: vote. I'm tired of having to try to convince people to care about their country, their lives, their well-being. It's like we are treating the electorate like children who we need to lead along by the hand. Are we adults or not? Sorry, venting.
The "walking corpse" - which I think frankly, is hyperbole - has had a highly successful 3.5 years in office. He may not debate worth a pinch of shit but he knows how to run a country.
I have - I follow Allan Lichtman very closely, and am a huge believer in his 13 keys model! I'm looking forward to what he ultimately predicts roughly a month from now.
If his model is to be believed (which I think it is), the main things that could tank Biden right now are the Israel issue and RFK Jr, should he start getting more than 10% in the polls. Key 12 however is another issue - the charismatic incumbent key is currently ranked false. That key would instantly flip true if they replaced Biden with Buttigieg, but would remain false if they went with Harris. In an election as close as this one, something that small could decide the outcome of the election by flipping just a handful of votes in key swing states. At this point, simply flipping key 12 would be just enough for the Dems to win, regardless of whatever might happen with Israel and the protests or with RFK.
The walking corpse thing may be hyperbole, but I think it's also clear that the White House staff has concealed the full extent of the problem from the public at the same time.
I think Biden has been effective nonetheless, and that that's because he has an excellent supporting cast, from west wing staff to qualified cabinet members to democrats in the house and senate. A stark difference from Trump, who constantly chased away qualified professionals (just ask James Mattis or Rex Tillerson), who was hated on Capitol Hill, and who even tried to kill his own Vice President. That's the difference between Biden and Trump. However, I don't think all that is enough to put to rest many people's serious concerns about Biden's capacity to serve as President.
Finally, yes I agree people need to get out and vote, and yes they need to be more active in primaries and local elections for change to truly take root. But the political environment also needs to change, and both parties need to start encouraging competent, skilled individuals to run for office. And we need term limits so that people like Mitch Mcconnell and Nancy Pelosi don't just coast through 40 years in congress - it needs to be 12 years max, and sink or swim - either do your job or you're out.
At this point I'm voting for not just a man, but a party, the policies, the admin and... well, honestly the country. They could "Weekend at Bernies" with him and it would be insanely better than any Trump presidency. Especially with SCOTUS.
Honestly we blew it in 2016. We got caught up in a shit ton of stuff that just didn't matter. Heh, Bernie may even have won the primaries if all of his supporters had voted in the primary. (Less than 15% did.) But that's in the past. We have one job now. Keep Trump and the GOP out of office. Whatever it takes. Even if they have to prop up Biden like they did FDR to give a speech.
I don't disagree! I'm not a US citizen unfortunately, but if I was, I would vote for a sack of expired potatoes before I voted for Trump. If it comes down to that simple binary choice, then so be it.
But I think having a candidate as flawed as Biden also presents a serious risk politically. Many independent and swing voters despise Trump, but they also have serious doubts about Biden's fitness for office. If enough of these voters stay home, or god forbid vote for Trump, then that presents a very real and plausible scenario where Trump does win the election. And then all the prognostications about him ending NATO, or letting Putin win or dismantling democracy, could come true.
The dems have blown it many times. I'm glad they didn't run Bernie, because he is too far left to win, but Hillary and Biden haven't been much better. Truly inspiring leadership is needed, and it has to be someone who appeals to disaffected independents and even moderate Republicans if we're to chart a new course for the country.