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MEGA THREAD on 2024 Loksabha Election Results EXIT POLL*

This is the mega thread. Please post exit polls related from various sources here.

EXIT POLLS will start coming in after 6:30 PM IST

Here's a live watch thread from

IndiaTvNews

NDTV-Now that it is Adani Model

All India Tally (543 Seats) LS 2024 Seat Projection BJP 335 ± 15 Seats NDA 400 ± 15 Seats Congress 50 ± 11 Seats INDIA 107 ± 11 Seats Others 36 ± 9 Seats

@news24tvchannel

MEGA THREAD - YOUR PERSONAL PREDICTIONS on INDIA'S 2024 GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS

Hello! r/indianews viewers. Please place your personal predictions.

*Keep it something similar to - *

• BJP - Overall and UP
• NDA - Overall
• Congress - Overall and Rae Bareilli?
• I.N.D.I Alliance - Overall.

ABKI BAAR 400 PAAR LAGTA HAIN as per Exit Polls. Let's see how the results will be on June 4th!

https://youtu.be/VihGEK-IA_M?si=ZTzsPyCt7ohPY8-d

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I have noticed widespread reports that the Congress alliance is claiming victory and making future plans, while also rejecting the exit poll results. What could their game plan be? Are they potentially preparing to allege EVM tampering or pursuing another strategy? Any insights into their intentions?

ChatGPT Thoughts -

The Congress alliance's post-election strategy includes rejecting exit polls to maintain morale, questioning EVM reliability to contest results and mobilize supporters, projecting confidence to solidify alliances and attract partners, preparing for legal challenges in case of close results, and managing media narratives to focus public attention on their claims. These steps aim to handle election uncertainties and prepare for various potential outcomes.

Heard that after the exit polls All Minorities started to feel unsafe in this country, they got sick and started to feel nauseous, all of the sudden democracy died in India and dictatorship prevailed, EVM became hackable and def got hacked because there is no way that the current ruling party could do anything fair, their self claimed father (Mr Dhruv) has begun the shooting of his video stating “why should we go back to the glory days of ignoring systemic issues, terrorist attack, having 0 geo politics power , and good petrol price” And HOW DARE BJP CONSIDER THE WELL BEING OF ALL CITIZENS INSTEAD OF JUST FEW? SUCH A SHAME.

I'm very interested in the General Elections but can't follow political news due to time constraints. So I took GPT's help and asked it several questions to help me understand the situation and to tell me what to focus on during the election results. Questions I asked were:

1. Browse the Internet and explain to me what I should look out for while watching the Indian election results all day on June 4
   
2. Give me an hour-to-hour breakdown of what to expect on that day
3. Give me the key battleground states and tell me what a "good" performance would look like for the BJP/NDA in those states
4. What would be a good performance for the BJP/NDA on a national level?
5. How many more seats would the BJP/NDA need to win in which states to secure 400 seats realistically

While watching the Indian election results on June 4, here are key points to focus on:

1. Major Alliances and Parties:

   - BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party): Led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, BJP is expected to be a significant contender. Pay attention to their performance, particularly in stronghold states like Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat.

   - INDIA Alliance: The opposition coalition, including the Indian National Congress and several regional parties. Watch for their performance in states like West Bengal and Bihar, where regional dynamics are crucial.

2. Key Contests and Battleground State:

   - States like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, and Bihar are pivotal. These states have a large number of parliamentary seats, and their results can significantly impact the overall outcome.

3. Voter Turnout and Trends:

   - Voter turnout can indicate the level of public engagement and support for various parties. High turnout in specific regions could favor the ruling party or the opposition, depending on the demographic and historical voting patterns.

4. Economic and Social Issues:

   - Economic concerns, such as unemployment and agrarian distress, are major voter issues. The performance of the BJP's welfare schemes and economic policies will be scrutinized, especially in rural areas heavily dependent on agriculture.

5. Hindu-Muslim Relations:

   - Communal issues, particularly the controversy surrounding the construction of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, could influence voter sentiment. This has been a polarizing topic, with potential impacts on voting behavior in key constituencies.

6. Newly Formed or Shifting Alliances:

   - Keep an eye on any last-minute shifts in alliances or defections among major political figures, as these can dramatically alter the political landscape. For instance, any changes within the INDIA coalition or defections to the BJP-led NDA can affect the results.

Here’s an hour-by-hour breakdown of what to expect on June 4 during the Indian election results day:

Early Morning (6 AM - 9 AM)

• 6:00 AM: News channels and websites start their special coverage, providing background information on the election, key issues, and exit polls.

• 7:00 AM: Initial trends from postal ballots may begin to trickle in. Analysts will discuss expected trends based on early counts and exit polls.

• 8:00 AM: Major news networks like NDTV, Times Now, and Republic TV will have panels of experts and political commentators analyzing the first data sets.

• 8:30 AM: Some initial results from smaller constituencies might start appearing. Early leads will be indicative but not definitive.

Mid-Morning (9 AM - 12 PM)

• 9:00 AM: Counting of votes intensifies. Expect a clearer picture from early leads in key states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and West Bengal.

• 10:00 AM: Detailed analysis of voter turnout and demographic influences. Comparisons to previous elections and discussions on swing constituencies.

• 11:00 AM: Results from urban areas may start to solidify. Discussion on whether these results align with exit polls and initial predictions.

• 11:30 AM: News channels begin to project potential outcomes based on early and mid-count trends.

Afternoon (12 PM - 3 PM)

• 12:00 PM: Significant results from crucial battleground states begin to emerge. Political parties may start issuing early statements.

• 1:00 PM: Focus shifts to rural vote counts, which can swing results dramatically. Analysis of key rural constituencies and their impact on the overall results.

• 2:00 PM: By now, trends in most constituencies will be clear. News channels might start calling certain seats and predicting the majority party.

• 2:30 PM: Reactions from political leaders and parties. Expect statements and potential claims of victory or allegations of irregularities.

Late Afternoon (3 PM - 6 PM)

• 3:00 PM: Projections for the overall winner may become more concrete. Detailed analysis of key victories and losses for major parties.

• 4:00 PM: Continued coverage and reactions from various regions. Expect in-depth discussions on what the results mean for the future political landscape.

• 5:00 PM: Final stages of vote counting. By now, most seats should have a clear winner, and the focus will shift to the implications of the results.

Evening (6 PM - 9 PM)

• 6:00 PM: Comprehensive analysis of the results. Expert panels will dissect the performance of major parties, alliances, and key political figures.

• 7:00 PM: Final results will likely be confirmed. News channels will provide a complete picture of the new Lok Sabha composition.

• 8:00 PM: Discussions on the next steps, including government formation, potential alliances, and key policy priorities of the winning party.

Night (9 PM onwards)

• 9:00 PM: In-depth post-election analysis and interviews with winners, losers, and political analysts.

• 10:00 PM: Discussions on the impact of the results on state and regional politics. Projections for future elections based on the current results.

• 11:00 PM: Coverage may wind down with summaries and key takeaways from the day.

Key Points to Watch

• Early Trends: Postal ballots and early counts from smaller constituencies.

• Midday Trends: Key battleground states and urban-rural divide.

• Afternoon Shifts: Potential majority party projections.

• Evening Confirmations: Final results and government formation discussions.

Here are the key battleground states for the Indian election and what a "good" performance would look like for the BJP/NDA in those states:

1. Uttar Pradesh (UP)

Significance: Uttar Pradesh is the most populous state in India, contributing 80 seats to the Lok Sabha, making it a crucial battleground.

Good Performance for BJP/NDA:

• Winning a majority: Securing at least 50-60 seats would be considered a strong performance. In the 2019 elections, the BJP won 62 seats in UP, so maintaining or improving this tally is crucial.

2. Maharashtra

Significance: Maharashtra has 48 Lok Sabha seats, and it is another major state where the BJP/NDA needs a strong showing.

Good Performance for BJP/NDA: Maintaining dominance: Winning around 30-35 seats would be considered a good outcome. In 2019, the BJP and its ally Shiv Sena won 41 seats together.

3. West Bengal

Significance: West Bengal contributes 42 seats to the Lok Sabha. It has traditionally been a stronghold for the Trinamool Congress (TMC).

Good Performance for BJP/NDA: Significant gains: Winning at least 15-20 seats would be a marked improvement for the BJP. In 2019, the BJP made significant inroads by winning 18 seats.

4. Bihar

Significance: Bihar has 40 Lok Sabha seats and is another key state with significant political importance.

Good Performance for BJP/NDA: Majority wins: Securing around 25-30 seats would be a strong performance. In 2019, the BJP and its allies won 39 out of 40 seats.

5. Madhya Pradesh

Significance: Madhya Pradesh contributes 29 seats to the Lok Sabha. It is traditionally a stronghold for the BJP.

Good Performance for BJP/NDA: High seat count: Winning at least 20-25 seats would be considered good. The BJP won 28 seats in 2019, and maintaining this level would be crucial.

6. Karnataka

Significance: Karnataka has 28 Lok Sabha seats. It is a key southern state where the BJP has been trying to expand its influence.

Good Performance for BJP/NDA: Majority wins: Winning around 15-20 seats would be considered strong. In 2019, the BJP won 25 seats.

7. Rajasthan

Significance: Rajasthan contributes 25 seats to the Lok Sabha. It is another key state for the BJP.

Good Performance for BJP/NDA: Majority of seats: Winning at least 20-22 seats would be considered good. In 2019, the BJP won all 25 seats.

A good performance for the BJP/NDA on a national level in the Indian general elections would entail several key achievements:

1. Securing a Clear Majority

• Seats: Winning at least 272 out of 543 Lok Sabha seats is required for a simple majority. A strong performance would involve exceeding this number significantly, aiming for around 300-350 seats. This would provide the BJP/NDA with a comfortable majority, reducing dependency on smaller coalition partners.

• Previous Benchmark: In the 2019 elections, the BJP alone won 303 seats, and the NDA collectively secured 353 seats. Matching or surpassing this performance would be considered very successful.

2. Dominating Key States

• Uttar Pradesh: Winning 50-60 seats out of 80.

• Maharashtra: Securing around 30-35 seats out of 48.

• West Bengal: Making significant gains with at least 15-20 seats out of 42.

• Bihar: Winning around 25-30 seats out of 40.

• Madhya Pradesh: Securing at least 20-25 seats out of 29.

• Karnataka: Winning around 15-20 seats out of 28.

• Rajasthan: Maintaining dominance with around 20-22 seats out of 25.

3. Retaining Stronghold States

• Gujarat: Winning most of the 26 seats, as it is a BJP stronghold.
  
• Haryana: Securing a majority of the 10 seats.

4. Making Inroads in New Regions

• Southern States: Making significant gains in states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh, which have traditionally been challenging for the BJP.
  
• North-East States: Continuing to build on previous successes and securing more seats.

To secure 400 seats, the BJP/NDA would need to significantly improve their performance in several states, including retaining their current seats and gaining new ones. Here's a breakdown of where they would need to gain additional seats and the approximate numbers needed in key states:

Current Scenario

• 2019 Election Results: BJP/NDA secured 353 seats.
  
• Goal: To reach 400 seats, they need an additional 47 seats.

Key States and Additional Seats Needed

1. Uttar Pradesh

   - 2019 Results: BJP/NDA won 62 out of 80 seats.
   - Additional Needed: Winning 70 seats (an increase of 8 seats) would significantly contribute towards the goal.

2. West Bengal

   - 2019 Results: BJP won 18 out of 42 seats.
   - Additional Needed: Securing 30 seats (an increase of 12 seats) would be a major gain.

3. Maharashtra

   - 2019 Results: BJP/NDA won 41 out of 48 seats.
   - Additional Needed: Winning 45 seats (an increase of 4 seats) would be realistic if they retain their alliance.

4. Bihar

   - 2019 Results: BJP/NDA won 39 out of 40 seats.
   - Additional Needed: Securing all 40 seats (an increase of 1 seat).

5. Madhya Pradesh

   - 2019 Results: BJP won 28 out of 29 seats.
   - Additional Needed: Winning all 29 seats (an increase of 1 seat).

6. Karnataka

   - 2019 Results: BJP won 25 out of 28 seats.
   - Additional Needed: Securing all 28 seats (an increase of 3 seats).

7. Rajasthan

   - 2019 Results: BJP won all 25 seats.
   - Additional Needed: Maintaining all 25 seats.

8. Gujarat

   - 2019 Results: BJP won all 26 seats.
   - Additional Needed**: Maintaining all 26 seats.

9. Haryana

   - 2019 Results: BJP won all 10 seats.
   - Additional Needed: Maintaining all 10 seats.

Expanding in New Regions

1. Tamil Nadu

   - 2019 Results: BJP/NDA had a minimal presence.
   - Additional Needed: Winning at least 10-15 seats would be a significant gain.

2. Kerala

   - 2019 Results: BJP/NDA had minimal success.
   - Additional Needed: Securing 5-10 seats would mark a breakthrough.

3. Andhra Pradesh

   - 2019 Results: BJP/NDA won no seats.
   - Additional Needed: Winning at least 10 seats would be a substantial gain.

4. Telangana

   - 2019 Results: BJP won 4 out of 17 seats.
   - Additional Needed: Securing 10 seats (an increase of 6 seats).

5. Odisha

   - 2019 Results: BJP won 8 out of 21 seats.
   - Additional Needed: Winning 15 seats (an increase of 7 seats).