User deleted post
Say someone presents you with a hundred boxes. Inside 99 of them are a million dollars, inside one is a bomb. You can open as many or as few as you want then walk away.
I would find a open remote field. I would put box 1 and throw some fireworks at it from a distance. I would clean up the remains. There is 99% chance that the remains are one million bucks scattered everywhere.
I would repeat the process for the other boxes.
I would invite the nearest robotics club to build a waldo and promise them a nice donation.
I'd go to a very famous packed place and announce that that guy is giving me a million dollars per box I open and start opening like 20. If it goes bad he'll have a lot of explaining to do. Im either leaving rich or no ones leaving lol.
- 2 million is all i need. Could go as high as 5 but I'm not gonna risk it. I play XCOM.
I like how XCOM has become the defacto go to for understanding getting the shit side of the stick in terms of odds.
"Alright I'm adjacent to the alien, all I have to do is hit and— HOW DO YOU MISS, THERE'S A 99% CHANCE OF HITTING IT!"
With my luck, the first one I touched would be a bomb.
I'm thinking 5-10 depending on how lucky I'm feeling that day.
I’d open one.
I’d do two. Being conservative a 4% return gives you $40k a year to live on which can be tough.
$80k is comfy pretty much anywhere.
I wouldn’t retire on $1million but it’d be life changing money. I’m hesitant with even a 1 in 100 chance of dying early. A 1 in 50 chance would be too much for me.
I mean, technically speaking even if you get the bad box it's still life changing.
Oh my god it's the Monty Hall Problem in the wild.
The first box is 1 in 100 chance of being a bomb. The second box is 1 in 99 chance of being a bomb.
What's the fiftieth box's chance of being a bomb?
I reckon the weight difference will be fairly obvious
A million dollars is quite heavy depending on denomination. A bomb that can kill you only needs to weigh a few ounces.
So all you need to do is compare three boxes.
The only possible outcomes are three boxes with 1 million each or two boxes with 1 million and 1 with the bomb.
Either way, you’ll know what 1 million feels like (the two/three boxes that weigh the same).
So it’ll be very obvious when you pick up the bomb box.
Likewise, a bomb as heavy as one million dollars in hundreds will probably leave nothing of you left.
I think I would do 4 or 5 boxes. Odds are still very much in your favor of being okay even after the 5th box because at that point it is still a 1/96 chance to get the bomb. Those are good odds and 5 mil is enough to set aside and live off for a while.
3, I only need 3 million to retire forever- that’s about 120k passive income a year.
Imma kick the boxes and see if they feel light like money or heavy like a bomb.
I’d opened 10-20.
So you get x million dollars or a x% chance of nothing?
The curve for max expected money peaks at 50, but I reckon most people wouldn't value money linearly. I would conjecture they value things based on a root, but alternatives like a logistic curve could also be explored.
Based on log_2: the peak is at 6
Based on square root: the peak is at 33
Based on a logistic curve with k=10M (where I reckon "fuck you money" territory starts) and maximum derivative at the origin: the peak is at 37
I reckon I'd open 30
I have access to an x-ray... I'm opening 99.
Exactly. I would take them all to work and put them through the X-rays we use for the employees bags.
I'd open half. Enough to set me for life pretty much no matter what I do so long as I'm not excessively wasteful. Half the cases does significantly increase the odds of me triggering the bomb, but still keeps it relatively low enough that the risk to reward ratio is in my favor or at least not against me.
Not a bad way to look at. I mean if there were only two boxes, I might still risk opening one.
Might as well use the same mindset
You're dying opening 50. Sure the last box is a 50% chance, but only if you survive the previous 49%, 48%, 47%... chances.
No time limit? Open one. Hopefully not the bomb. Use money to x-ray the rest.
Call the bomb squad and tell them someone hid a bomb in one of the 100 boxes.
They’ll use a dog or something to sniff it out. They will work on defusing it or whatever while I open the other boxes.
10
I only need to open two... I'd be tempted by three. Assuming no loop holes were possible.
Otherwise there are many ways to get around the bomb.
About to buy a bomb-sniffing dog on credit.
99 of them.
Use my FLIR to see which is the bomb and open the others.
Open the first box, take the money, buy a bomb disposal robot. Open the rest with the robot, with you at a safe distance. Maybe hire a robot operator if you don’t know how to operate the robot. It won’t survive, but you will be $99 million (less one robot) richer.
Offer a few million bucks to some bomb experts. Open all 100.