View all comments
Yeah no we're not even close to this, and the physical limitations are quite restrictive so it is actually a lot more probable this will never happen
I don't think it will never happen, but I also definitely don't think it'll happen by 2030
Considering this, for example: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/s/lEPovlqJ5g
We've got a long way to go before we can fully understand and imitate that, despite what the AI techbros are saying.
It won't be humans that will discover how to do it. It will be advanced AI's. When those AI's will emerge...well let's just say it definitely could happen before or at 2030. AGI's arrival within 5 - 10 years is not even a controversial opinion within the space of AI researchers. Call me an "AI tech bro" if you must, but I trust the words of the experts over a random smug redditor who thinks they know better then the people actually creating AI.
The whole brain at that resolution would take ~154 exabytes of data to represent.
!remindme 5 years
I will be messaging you in 5 years on 2029-05-10 05:04:36 UTC to remind you of this link
1 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
Parent commenter can delete this message to hide from others.
"a lot more probable this will never happen". Lol how can you be so sure that something will NEVER happen??? It's ridiculous. I mean, i don't think that it will happen in this century, but in 200 or 300 years... we don't even know how scientific knowldege will look in 10 years, let alone centuries forward.
Yeah you are right, I should say this will not happen in the lifetime of anyone alive today
How can I be so sure? Because of the amount of resources such an endeavour would require, which would be fine if we weren't scrapping every natural resources already in an accelerating rate to make useless shit all over the world
We'll have to solve existential issues starting now and this kind of technology will not be the place where we will direct the resources we still have
you're a real dumbfuck
I think the computer processing power is probable, for sure. It's the "download" part that would be the hold up
I mean, that's not at all the point though, all he said here was that we'd reach a point where, arguably, we could emulate all computation. It probably still requires tons of abstraction work and understanding of lots of connectomes and intricacies, and computation alone clearly isn't even close to everything... regardless, theoretically that'd be a big part. It's not an assumption about whether it'd be feasible then (which, considering the drastic compounding research speed-up, might still absolutely surprise us and mean that, even now, we're already surprisingly close), it's just a vague hypothetical about computational increase over the decades.
physical limitations are quite restrictive
And we collectively still managed to (sort of) brute force CUDA computation sets such that we pretty much made many, many discussions about physical limitations obsolete. Nobody cares about computational limits, if we can just parallelize computation by means of training specialized models dealing with all sorts of fuzzy and high-dimensional inputs.
Now more so than ever does it seem at least possible that something along those lines happens very soon, if not likely. Or maybe we won't solve the mysteries of the brain and human cognition for another fifty years, but all those things people were saying well into the most recent machine learning revolution. People were carrying the "AI is impossible to use"-mantra with them for all the years after AlexImageNet, until very recently.
Betting against human ingenuity and relying on our "Intuition" tends to be a mistake in that particular domain.
The world never is doing so much heavy lifting, that’s like saying X-rays would never be possible in 1924