Kyren Williams Falloff: a counter argument

Player Discussion

Honestly I do not understand why so many people have this trepedation about drafting Kyren eary next year.

He finished the as #5 back in .5 ppr last year and that’s with missing five games. He only had two games in single digit points and had 6 weeks of over 20 points.

I am not declaring that Kyren is a first round grab but the fallout has been extremely exaggerated. Yes they did draft an RB to spell him but he’s still the goal line back and he’s on a run heavy team.

His schedule next year is also juicy, he plays the Cardinals twice, Seahawks twice, the Bears, Raiders, Vikings, Packers, and Dolphins.

To sum it up, I don’t think it’s going to be a 50/50 split, McVay has reallly ever went this route. He’s earned his spot and he is too talented to keep on the sideline for too long.

in fantasyfootballby Longjumping_Smile333

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KeltyOSR

-3

He's injured
His coach doesn't stick to a single rb for long
His usage last year was unrealistic
He isn't a great talent
His team drafted a great (potentially better) rb with a high pick
He didn't even win the starting job last season until there were injuries

I'm staying far far away.

CuriousAndMysterious

Not great I agree, but it's early july and they say he will be good to go by training camp. Not too worried.
McVay tends to mainly use one RB
Even if corum takes 30-40% of the carries he's still worth it if it keeps him healthy.
He was great last year
Very similar draft profiles, Corum was drafted higher, but Kyren already had a great year.
He clearly won it outright week 1 when Akers went 22 carries for 29 yards

finessebebejones

What is similar about their draft profiles outside of them being about the same size?

CuriousAndMysterious

Funny enough, the Rams' OC literally said today "Grosbard described rookie Blake Corum as more of a breather back for Williams, adding the team drafted Corum with the 83rd pick in the 2024 draft because they wanted a “Kyren clone” to fill in for him should he once again miss time with injury."

I was saying this because their athletic profiles and sizes are similar and because I heard the same thing on podcasts, namely the Underdog Fantasy show, which always has good info.

finessebebejones

Interesting. I definitely see them as supplementary rather than complementary - they check all the same boxes skill-wise - but as a prospect I’d put Corum over Kyren easy. So much more college production, better combine numbers (though I’m sure there are some advanced metrics that’ll say I’m dead wrong about him being more athletic), and of course the round 3 status over Kyren’s round 5.

Kyren has the pole position as the incumbent due to what he showed last year, but Corum will at least be a constant thorn in his side with usage (IMO).

DBreezy69

He was great last year

People didn't watch the tape. Wide open holes to run through. People refuse to credit the offensive line for being absolutely elite at run blocking (and McVay's schemes)

CuriousAndMysterious

This shouldn't be a knock on kyren. Good for him for taking advantage of what was given to him. Not every running back can do that in the NFL.

DBreezy69

I mean most 1st/2nd string RBs could take advantage of it. The thing is it becomes hard to evaluate him. He isn’t particularly athletic and a lot of his big plays were basically just free. Being better than players like Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman isn’t some big accolade either. Some people seem sure Kyren is elite but easily confess that Breece behind that line would absolutely crush and Kyren probably wouldn’t have done much on the Jets.

So we don’t really know if Corum is just better than Kyren. It might not really matter because the Rams signed Jonah Jackson so the rich get richer

CuriousAndMysterious

Kyren is falling to the 3rd a lot and corum should still be very cheap around draft season. I like taking them both.

KeltyOSR

Fair! I just think there are way too many red flags to draft him as an RB 1. I'd say he is a mid tier RB 2.

tteuh

Corum is built for GL carries. I fully expect them to utilize him in the RZ. Kyren will still have PPR upside and will continue to see good volume but can see a dramatic drop in TDs

CuriousAndMysterious

Why? They are the same height and weight and Kyren was very efficient on the goal line last year.

Cstinchy17

I know Kyren isn’t a great talent but I think it’s hard to argue he wasn’t a good NFL running back last year. Isn’t there a chance Corum isn’t a good NFL player?

KeltyOSR

Absolutely! And i don't mean to sound so harsh. I think he's a good player that is just waaaay overhyped right now. He's going about 2 rounds early IMO.

Cstinchy17

I agree round 2 in redraft is a hard pill to swallow especially for a dude that’s not a super athlete like the other guys going in his range.

KeltyOSR

-1

Yep. If I can get him round 4 or 5 as my RB 2 I'm happy doing that