I’m trying hard to not have contrarian brain, but the sudden panic among centrist establishment Dems makes me wonder if listening to them is a good idea, considering how bad their political instincts have been in previous cycles. This is the crowd that assured us Hillary Clinton was unbeatable. Also just eff the NYT.
The DNC is largely propelled by data. Data said Hillary was likely (not guaranteed) to win. The only data that the DNC has on a presidential candidate being replaced this close to the election is 1968 when Bobby Kennedy, the frontrunner in the primaries at the time, was assassinated. The party replaced him with Hubert Humphrey who had all the unpledged delegates locked up because the party liked him rather than with Eugene McCarthy who the people had voted for even more than Kennedy to that point (Kennedy had won states worth more delegates). Hubert Humphrey went on to lose to Richard Milhouse Nixon.
The fact of the matter is, the DNC would be entering uncharted waters and when the entire structure of the nation is on the line for this election, now isn't the time to be playing that game. If Biden was going to be a one-term president, he needed to signal he wasn't running last year so the primary could be properly held. Replacing him now completely eliminates whatever democratic mandate that he has and the Republicans would blast that message from the mountaintops 24/7 "It was a selection, not an election!" and "The Democrat party didn't even let their voters have a say in their own election!" they'll scream, and even though they're acting in bad faith, they'd be right.
Absolutely anyone we could replace Biden with has some baggage that can't be dealt with in 5 months when the media is mostly controlled by conservative or fascist entities. Here's the shortlist for the replacements I've heard floated and the problems they have to overcome in 5 months:
Harris: can't win because on top of being a charisma black hole, the country is still too sexist and racist to let her be president.
Newsom: would have an extremely rough time because of his hypocrisies during the pandemic (turns out, holding private parties with dozens of people after you banned such parties will have an effect with people who don't like you).
Obama: is term-limited (which also means he can't be VP).
Sanders: is older than Biden and the media would absolutely crucify him, plus we lose a reliable vote in the Senate.
Big Gretch: would have to build a national profile in less than 5 months.
Buttigieg: would activate the Republican anti-LGBT in a way we've never seen before.
Hillary Clinton: would lose to Trump again because, on top of 30 years of smears against her, she has the worst political instincts known to man
Michelle Obama: doesn't want to be involved in politics.
AOC: We lose a seat in the house and Republicans are absolutely rabid against her. Plus, the electorate is still extremely sexist and extremely racist.
If any of these people had gone through a primary season, built a national profile, and been a household name for the entire election cycle, they'd be able to beat Trump, but trying to do all of that in 5 months would be an absolutely Herculean task.
If the DNC truly had no backup plan for it to potentially be Kamala, then we were predestined to lose.
Even if Biden moped the floor with Trump at the debate, the man is 81 and running for reelection for one of the most stressful jobs in the world. Man could have a heart attack or become objectively unable to run medically at any minute.
They always, always needed a Plan Kamala in the wings and if there truly wasn’t one, the uncharted waters might be more appealing than trying to ride out the Titanic taking on water.