Both are clearly in the top two, which do you prefer? Give me Condon’s 36 hr in the SEC and ability to hold down RF by 2026. I feel like no way Cleveland passes on him although hopefully they try to outsmart themselves.
Thanks, I didn’t know about the wood bat numbers!
Good breakdown that mirrors my thoughts. I posted a longer comment after you, but I think you nailed it in fewer words.
Fantastic write up. Are there historical summer league batting stats available anywhere?
I'm just going to pre-empt the people that are going to come in here and try to talk about Kurtz and Cags as possible options; the Reds are almost assuredly picking one of Condon and Bazzana, they're the two clear top prospects in the draft, and you shouldn't ever draft for need in baseball. The only way things get wonky is if you're a massive believer in either Burns or Hagen, and I highly doubt that happens.
First, the positives for both:
Condon has the clear best combination of power and hitting in college baseball; he has absolutely elite 90th percentile EVs, he hit over .400 this season, he walked more than he struck out, and he hit 36 HRs in 57 games. He plays in the best division in college baseball in the SEC and he's faced better velocity than Bazzana has up to this point in the season. He currently has a .446/.566/1.036 slash line; that 3rd part is slugging, not OPS. Condon has also taken massive leaps forward as a hitter every single season, increasing his walk rate, power, and reducing his strikeout rate every single season. He's worked his butt off to put himself into the conversation at #1 overall after being a walk-on as a freshman at Georgia.
Bazzana has the best overall hit tool in the class, and it's not even close. Scouts have put a grade anywhere from 70 to 80 on his hit tool (grades run from a 20-80 scale; 80 is elite; Elly's speed is an 80). He hit .419/.580/.951 this season in the PAC-12 with 28 HRs in 57 games, he walked 73(!) times and only struck out 33 times(!!!) while playing solid up-the-middle defense at 2B. He also has a long history of success with wooden bats, hitting .375/.456/.581 with them just last year; he hit 6 HRs in 33 games, so the power translated when swapping from metal bats. He has above-average speed, and scouts believe that he could wind up being an above-average defensive CF in professional baseball. He also has coaches and scouts raving about his leadership, work ethic, and intangibles.
Next, the "negatives" and questions for both (note that there aren't a ton of negatives for either player, which is what happens when prospects are universally considered top 10-20 guys in baseball coming straight out of the draft):
Condon has been intentionally walked 27 times this season, which calls into question whether his eye improvements stem from teams pitching around and being afraid to challenge him, or if he has a genuinely good eye. He is projected as at-best league-average at any defensive home he winds up at except 1B. He's a below-average runner.
Bazzana never hit more than 11 HRs in a single season prior to this year. While scouts are convinced he can play a good CF, he hasn't had a ton of time there in college baseball and has a weak arm; his weak arm also means that he won't be able to shift to SS and is a 2B/CF-only prospect.
Personally, I think I've shifted towards Bazzana if my scouts are convinced that he's going to play an above-average CF. I think his hit tool is elite and he'll have enough power that he could put up elite seasons as a CF, even if he doesn't have the absolute slugging upside that Condon does. If my scouts aren't convinced Bazzana can play a good defensive CF, I'd go with Condon and bank on his slugging ability giving me 40+ HRs per season.
If you want comps for the two in terms of upside/floor... Condon's ultimate upside is an Aaron Judge-esque slugger that plays below-average defense. Bazzana's ultimate upside is a Mike Trout-esque "do it all" athlete that hits for power, gets on base, and plays a good defensive CF.
Their floors (other than not making the majors, which is a risk for any player due to injury, struggles, mental issues, missed evaluations, etc) are pretty different, however. Condon's floor happens if his hit tool questions are real and he doesn't adjust; if that's the case, he likely settles in as a peak Khris Davis-esque slugger that plays poor defense, has a poor average and OBP, but hits HRs. Bazzana's floor is if he's unable to play above-average defense at any position and winds up lacking power, in which case he'll turn into a Jonathan India-esque player; note that this isn't a perfect example, as Bazzana would still be able to play average 2B defense and likely would hit for a higher average than India.
He hit .419/.580/.951 this season in the PAC-12 with 28 HRs in 57 games, he walked 73(!) times and only struck out 33 times(!!!)
Almost as many HRs as strike outs is pretty insane.
Great analysis. So much more insight than I had going in. One negative I’ve carried in my mind about Bazzana is he was coming into the year known for being a pull side only batter. I don’t know if that’s changed. I also match that with his report on mlb.com saying he has a little trouble with the outer half of the plate. But he otherwise gets effusive praise from scouts and just look at those numbers he puts up. This could be a case of the Gaurdians and Reds can only screw this up if they get fancy. Both players could be 30+ WAR during their first 6 seasons.
Cags worries me a little since Buckley has been smitten by two way players before. I prefer him as a hitter. He might turn out to be amazing. Kurtz was a favorite of mine, and still is, I just love this write up on mlb.com
“More than just a slugger, he's a complete hitter with no discernible weakness who crushes left-handers and right-handers and all types of pitches. He controls the strike zone, covers the entire plate and hits the ball with authority all over the ballpark.”
If Callis is laying down words in that order and with that amount of abandonment, I’m staying in.
Cags and Kurtz are just not viable options for the Reds at the 2nd pick of the draft. They both might turn out to be stars, but the bust rate on 1B-only players taken highly in the draft is insanely high. Kurtz isn't putting up much better numbers than Spencer Torkelson did, for instance, and Tork was the last "can't miss, sure-fire stud" 1B-only prospect drafted highly.
Cags is not a 1st round pick as a pitcher, so his 2-way capabilities are moot. Kurtz is putting up literal worse numbers than Bazzana and Condon, both of whom have louder tools and are better defensively.
I agree, I just think they are pretty strong, stronger than the Vaughn and Torkelson comps, and due to the law of averages in some small percentage outcomes they could be the better player in 10 years than the top two. I’m very sensitive to comments about plate discipline and their predictive value, so from that perspective I love Kurtz and hold my breath with Bazzana just a wee bit.
Bazzana's plate discipline numbers are very good. Are you thinking of Condon?
Plate discipline is probably the wrong word. It’s more like a hole in his game. If he has a weakness in the zone that’s noteworthy, then professional pitchers will exploit that over and over. The great thing with Bazzana is that he is just crushing everything else and has a very high floor.
I just don’t know how big a deal the outer half of the plate will be for him in the professional ranks. When you layer over it a level of hype about his make up, which is nice and all but doesn’t help you in the batters box, and can lead to some personality bias, I just can’t see through that fog as much as I’d like to.
I've learned over my time (casually) scouting players that makeup is one of the most important indicators predicting future success for players. Elly's makeup is insanely good, which is why I was putting a 60 FV label on him when he was still in a-ball, despite the strikeout concerns and how raw he was.
Players with great makeup are much more likely to get the most out of their tools because they're going to put in the work and effort to improve; they also tend to raise up their teammates around them. Friedl is a good example of this; his only elite tool as a prospect was his speed, but his willingness to put in the work to improve meant that he managed to take an average to slightly below-average hit tool and transform it into plus while getting the most out of his below-average power, turning it into fringe-average. It meant that he went from an average defender in CF to one that was above-average.
That's not to say that it's the end-all, be-all of scouting/predicting development; it's just another tool and most guys have makeups ranking from "okay" to "generally pretty good". It's the outliers (the 20s and 80s) that are worth mentioning, and everyone has put an 80 on Bazzana.
I also think that you're being extremely hyperbolic on Bazzana's "weakness in the zone"; he has a 70 to 80 hit tool and is punishing pitches everywhere in the zone.
I don’t mean to overstate my case, it’s nit picking season, I’m simply looking for what in hindsight might have been the sign one missed. Bazzana being a little pull heavy and maybe a little issue on the outer half, that’s a little if that could grow.
Like your case for high character make up. The Bengals and Reds both benefited from taking this road.
Yea, I get it. All good.
These are the two best options in what is unfortunately a very mediocre class. I don't think either has a ceiling of being a franchise defining player. We are likely getting a solid contributor either way and probably not much more than that. I'd just go for whoever can contribute the soonest I think, which is probably Condon.
We got very lucky with this #2 pick. It's too bad this isn't one of those stacked years where we are likely to lock into a perennial all-star caliber guy. Hopefully I'm wrong and the guy we grab is a hall-of-famer that plays his entire 16 year career with the Reds.
These are the two best options in what is unfortunately a very mediocre class. I don't think either has a ceiling of being a franchise defining player.
That's not quite true; the class is mediocre because it lacks true first round talent outside of the top 10 or so prospects, not because the very top of the draft is poor. Condon and Bazzana would be in the first tier of prospects from last year (Langford, Crews, Jenkins, Clark) and are expected to be top 10-20 prospects in baseball after being drafted. Burns is getting Skenes comps, for example, altho I personally would rank him a tier behind Skenes, who was a ready-made MLB ace while still in college.
Yeah, you might be right. There just isn't anyone in the draft class that has Harper, Strasburg, Skenes, Correra, Rutschman type of hype around them, so it just feels underwhelming even though maybe its not really that bad.
Yea, last year's class as a whole got hype because going into the season you had a clear #1 in Crews, who had been anointed the #1 guy since he was a freshman in college. Then, during the season, you had Langford break out and Skenes enter the conversation. Following that you had two tooled up HS guys in Jenkins and Clark, both of whom got thrown into that tier 1 discussion.
After those guys, you also had an incredibly deep draft; Hurston Waldrep, a player that was universally believed to be a sure-fire closer at the very worst and who people believed had a shot at being an ace, went 24th overall. That draft class might wind up being an all-timer once everything is said and done.
Coming into this year, there wasn't any preseason hype on any specific prospect and the overall class was mediocre due to a lack of HS players. That, combined with last year's crazy bonkers class, led to a lot of casual fans completely overlooking the top of the class because "it's a weak class".
It might wind up being an absolutely dreadful class after everything's said and done, but at the very least with what we know right now the very top end of the class looks good.
Bazzana wouldn't be too bad of a consolation. It's wild how much of a crap shoot the draft is in baseball though.
True, but this draft feels strong for what I want for the Reds so it’s some bias, but I would be jealous if I was picking 4th in this draft, for example.
Bazzana and Condon are superlative college positional prospects. One cannot complain too much.
Spenser Torklesons recent demotion is just one of hundreds of cautionary tales. Andrew Vaughn. Yet their numbers do not compare. Even Kris Bryant’s 31 hr season at San Diego is equaled or beaten soundly by all four or Bazzana, Condon, Caglione, and Kurtz in terms of OPS. All four play in major conferences. Is there a juiced ball this year? If not this class is somewhat underrated at the top, especially. The next 500 hr player could be in this draft. 👀
I would much prefer Condon, but it's not up to us lol. If Cleveland goes Bazzana I will be ecstatic.
I’ll take the condom over the banana
Several mocks (MLB, The Athletic, etc) now have us taking Condon with the Guardians taking Bazzana. It will be interesting to see which way they go in the end. I love the plate discipline and hitting ability from Bazzana from the left side but we have so many young middle infielders right now on the big league squad that I’m thinking the answer might be Condon. His power would be crazy in GABP plus he can play the corner OF spots and if OF doesn’t work out maybe you can spot play him out there, try to get him some time at 1B and DH him.
I’m definitely not biased as an OSU alum, but we should definitely draft Bazzana. I’d instantly buy a jersey with his name on the back.
Another OSU alum is a Reds fan. Hell yeah buddy go Beavs let’s beat Kentucky
They’re just a basketball school 😤
I'm gonna be thrilled with either guy
Man i would lose my mind if bazzana gets picked up by the reds. I'm Australian and have followed the reds since 89....
im a uga alum from marietta, ga (where charlie is from) and watch basically every uga game and every reds game. i watch zero oregon state games so i cant speak to bazzana so this isn't actually helpful.
that said, charlie is fucking insane. Intentionally walking him and putting winning/tying runs in scoring position type of insane. basically barry bonds in college, i am not exaggerating.
he is only a late bloomer in the sense that he has continued to grow and didnt have a ton of college options. that doesn't make it a fluke or anything, though. he grew up in the literal best baseball area in the country and played at a high level his whole life.
his season last year was high 1st round quality and he repeated it but was somehow even better this year. i do kind of agree that the power holding up is the big concern, mainly because over 1/3 of his hits are home runs right now. what he's doing has not made any sense all year.
the reds will be lucky to have either of these guys and it's really up to cleveland which one we will get.
It’s a tough choice but one the Reds won’t likely need to make. This high it should be best player available, and both these guys are likely to be near-term MLB players. Both are supposed to be premium hitters at mid-grade defensive positions (as in not stuck at 1B, DH, or likely LF).
Condon is the sexy pick because of the college power numbers and the out of nowhere, late bloomer story. His offense should play in the corners and he’d be a good fit in a small park. Plus, on his likely timing the positional fit is good with the Reds’ needs, although that shouldn’t be a driver. He’s also eight months younger than Bazzana, which suggests maybe even more upside.
But I would likely take Bazzana. Positional fit isn’t great as a near term guy (but Bazzana might be able to play CF), but the differentiator for me is that he’s already proven he can hit with a wood bat.
Condon’s summer league wood bat numbers aren’t what you’d hope for a bat-first prospect at the top of the draft. Bazzana’s are, plus he played in the league in Australia (which uses wood) even before college and held his own in a small sample against much older players.
It seems like a minor point and is based on fairly small samples, but power hitting is much different with a wood bat, and Condon’s wood bat league power numbers are lower than Bazzana’s. Given their profiles it should be the other way around.
TLDR: I think there’s real risk Condon’s extreme power doesn’t show with a wood bat, and without it this choice would be pretty easy. Bazzana seems less risky to me, and that’s nice because he’s likely the one who’s still there at #2.