www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/_/id/38788364/2024-nba-draft-rankings-espn-top-25-prospects
2024 NBA draft: The intriguing Kentucky freshman who is a top-five prospect
Clingan and Filipowski above Holland? I see Givony and I are of the same mind on those guys. I just think they're neat. Edey at 15 is pretty fun too, although maybe a bit high. I think the negativity around Edey is a bit over exaggerated given his production.
It's that time of the season. Givony will start making bigger adjustments now.
Still don't understand Edey/1st Rd hype though
He had some big praise for Collier on twitter today too, so I expect that he'll be moved up in the next edition. March Madness should be fun to see how things shake out.
Edey and Clingan I always believed will go higher than originally anticipated, now these recent mocks seem to be taking that into account. Reasoning is pretty simple, if you’re a front office handing your coach a young new toy who’s likely to actually impact the game, a 7’4” bloke with good hands and strength is probably going to be the button they press. If I’m a coach, introducing Cody Williams or Tidjane Salaun into the game, what exactly is changing about the complexion of the game? Edey is changing it entirely. There’s potential for some Edey ball for 15-20 mins per game, rack up some fouls, slow it down, throw it to him in the post and run cutters off him. All it takes is one front office to bet on their coaching staff being smart and figuring out a role and a tactic for him, and I think it’ll happen in the top 20.
Second reason is the dominant player of the NbA always inspires draft picks to stop him. Jokic and Embiid need Clingan sized men to defend them 1v1 (Edey I’m not so sure on, but still) and teams reach for those guys.
I don't know if Edey would really go that high. It takes a specific kind of team that is willing to play inside-out with him and getting everyone else on board with that idea. I think a lot of teams will pass on him for fit reasons. It's easier to talk yourself into Clingan who may be a bit more malleable at a younger age, and Filipowski has the potential of maybe being able to shoot 3s.
I can see the pistons getting him to replace Wiseman in the bench unit. Not saying it is a good idea but it is something I can see them doing.
“Young new toy” lol that’s one way to say it, Buffalo Bill
what's the difference in Edey's game and Boban?
Sheppard > Topic
🤝
He just doesn't get up enough shots for me to get excited
Topic plays against professional players in professional basketball leagues. Sheppard is playing against bunch of college kids. Topic has a way harder job in his hands. Sheppard will have a rude awakening when he faces with NBA defenses.
Americans are stilll way overrating college prospects.
Dude…the SEC is filled with men… lol! One’s much more athletic than Topic has been playing. Age != athleticism. It is the team ball that is better in Europe, not the athletes.
No Bub Carrington in he top25?
Juan Nunez over Bub Carrington?
Bub is ranked 28th btw
Collier fixed his stock I see
McCain top 20 👀
Knecht finally a lotto pick now 🔥
It feels weird to see JaKobe, Castle and Cody that far apart from each other
I just need Castle stock to go higher. Reed/Rob/JaKobe/Knecht/Castle are my guys in this draft.
It's bizarre because Dillingham is the kind of prospect I always dislike and Sheppard is the kind of prospect I always love, and yet this time around I love them both. Never bet against the Kentucky freshman guard (except apparently TyTy)
This is a good point Calipari is a great recruiter terrible coach they all do better when they get away from him
Reed Sheppard top five hell yeah.
I really want him to fall a little, i would like the Rockets yo pick him
My thinking is that if every team in the lottery secretly wants him to fall to them, he's not gonna fall.
Doubt the Blazers would take him if one of the top forwards is still available. Between Scoot and Shae and now Banton (who has been so much better than advertised), I dunno that there is much need for a guard. I would think it more likely we use one of our seconds on someone like Juan Nunez (who I just saw is projected as a first here, but you know what i mean)
Yeah Blazers might be the only exception.
True at least there is good shooters at the range the Rockets should pick, but IMO Sheppard is a good fit
May I offer you one Cam Whitmore
I never understood why he dropped and still don't lol, so maybe you're right and nobody should trust me to have any insight into the minds of GMs.
Right? I think it was injury related and seeing how he goes at everyone maybe a little mentally related as well but for me, the attitude is a good thing
The thing about Cam that made me love him as a prospect is that he's one of those rare players whose egocentric "I'm gonna go at everyone" attitude is totally justified because he's such a beast. Watching him go right at Wemby last night and grab offensive boards over his head was so fun. I wish we had combine results for him because IMO he's up there with any recent prospects as an athlete.
Totally agree.
I feel like Houston is the legitimately best landing spot for him.
I don't watch NCAA Basketball. But from his highlights he seemed very similar to Kirk Hinrich to me. Is that a fair comparison?
No. The best comp I can give that people won't downvote me for being too outlandish is "bigger and better defending late career Mike Conley." His advanced numbers (BPM, RAPM, etc.) are in that AD/KD/Zion "guaranteed star" tier for a freshman, he has a 5% steal rate (one of the best of any top prospect ever), and he torches defenses to the tune of 50% from three, but concerns about his size / wingspan mean he's not a consensus #1 pick like they were. But it was still really ridiculous for him to be mocked outside the top 5 IMO, someone's gonna take a chance on him for sure.
YES! I'm a Spurs fan and our most glaring (of many) weaknesses are defense and 3 point shooting, where we rank near the bottom or last in both. Sheppard improves both of those significantly and Topic doesn't or makes them worse.
I agree.
Yup. Spurs should go for either Kentucky guard over anyone else I think.
I like Conley better as a POA defender but Reed better off ball and playing passing lanes. Aside from that, I agree
edit: oh you're saying better defender than late career Conley, I see. Fair enough
He is a white guard with limited athleticism. I would not read too much into that NCAA stats. Sure, it gives an idea; but his deficits and flaws will be exposed massively in NBA unlike NCAA. (He won't be able to penetrate as much, he will face with NBA guards' unreal athleticism in offence. He will get exposed in defence.)
Kirk Hinrich was helluva player and was a major contributor to the Bulls teams he played for. I don't get why you thought it was an insult to compare Sheppard with him.
Don't think he meant to insult you so much as to spotlight how ridiculous Sheppard is.
The same way that draft evaluators pegged Steph Curry as a small guard with limited athleticism, bad defense, poor shot selection and compared him to Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf it seems like the same thing is happening to Sheppard. Reducing him to an unathletic white guard is doing him a disservice when his impact metrics put him up there with players who have historically become NBA stars.
Sure it would be a safe idea to project him to be a solid role player like Kirk Heinrich, but history shows us he should be so much more.
Peak Hinrich was a 16.5-4-6.5 guy who made an all defensive team. And was a really smart nice initiator of offense next to Ben Gordon. Had a good true shooting and 3p percentage for the era as well. A better ball handler and penetrator than people may realize now.
What exactly would be so bad if Reed turned out to be that good? That’s an amazing outcome for Reed Sheppard at least in my eyes. Like upper quartile outcome of what he could become. Are you seeing something that indicates some sort of 22PPG sub all star outcome from him? Or what?
I think Sheppard leans more towards Chris Paul in terms of his potential pathway to be an NBA star (-playmaking, +50% 3pt shooting, +0.8 blocks per game). An ultra efficient guard with elite defensive instincts that elevates his team.
Again, I have a lot of respect for Captain Kirk but he made what, a few All-NBA teams? This is the draft lottery, it's okay to get a little ambitious with projections.
CHRIS PAUL? CP3? A perennial MVP candidate in his prime and one of the 5 best PGs ever?
You’re telling me a guy who isn’t even the primary ball handler on his own college team is going to be following Chris Paul’s pathway? Am I being trolled?
I'm not agreeing with him but neither of the two best ballhandlers are the primary ones on this Kentucky team (Reed, Rob), that's on the coaching staff/system. They're the two best players and were playing bench minutes until like a month ago lmao
It's wild for sure but yeah I think he could fill into that player archetype.
Maybe a more grounded comp would be somewhere between Derrick White or Fred Vanvleet in today's league, although I feel much higher on him.
His pre-college numbers are so CP3 like lol, I agree with you but last time I said this I got heavily downvoted hence why I restricted myself to the Mike Conley comp. But I do legitimately think he has CP3 upside, and CP3's peak was up there with LeBron's in terms of impact on team winning.
People are forgetting how good Hinrich was , he was a catalyst of leading the Bulls out of a dark era post Jordan era bulls he was a pesky defender who was allways in the running for all defence as well as high IQ ball setter and good shooter. If you compare Hinrichs sophomore year with Sheppard's Freshman year ( Sheppard turns 20 in June) 12.4 PPG 4.3 apg 4.2 RPG 53% fg 51% 3fg 83% ft Sheppard 11.5 PPG 6.9 apg 4.1 RPG 50% FG 50% 3fg 84% ft Hinrich.
There are some pretty comparable numbers there. Hinrichs peak was quite short but just because he didn't have any all star appearances or huge offensive production does not mean he was simply a role player or an average outcome, Hinrich went top 10 in one of the goat draft classes of all time for a reason, Sheppard has the opportunity to go top 10 in a possible woat draft which would be excellent value in this draft
I have no dog in this comparison but the majority of this sub did not watch college basketball from the early 2000s. Please do not compare both players just because their stats look similar.
I will say Hinrich was a never a true point guard even in college and was kicked to shooting guard when Roy managed to recruit Aaron Miles who was the top point guard in the country (there was technically a PG ahead of him but he was a headcase and got arrested).
Also if you follow any Roy Williams teams all they do is run the ball and the halfcourt offenses are all designed plays to get easy baskets for the big men. Hinrich's sophomore year the team basically had no bench or other guard so he had to play point guard. And any Roy coached team typically leads the NCAA in assists despite being the offense catered to the post players. It was true when he was at UNC and was true at Kansas. There was no pick and roll, pick and pop, dribble drive or any of that shit. Just swing the ball around until the post player got into position for a quick shot.
As for who Hinrich was, he was a combo guard who hustled and was very physical on defense. His shooting was highly benefited from playing next to Collison and Gooden (and the incredibly short three point line). His playmaking was always overrated. Even in Chicago he was not that great and the only reason why he remained relevant was because of his defense and Thibbs loved him to death.
Kirk was definitely PG his freshman and Sophomore season it was only later seasons he played SG. Also in the NBA before the injuries and Roses arrival he was a pure PG Thibs was only coach of the Bulls during Hinrichs second stint with the bulls where he was well past his prime. During his first stint until his first year with injuries he was a catalyst of leading the Bulls to the playoffs. I'm not saying he was great or elite but he had a short stint where he was very good
Kirk’s sophomore season was an outlier though, he wasn’t close to that good Jr or Sr year. The defensive numbers aren’t nearly as good as Shepherds either.
Hinrich FT% went to 80% Jr 74% Sr and 3PT% went 47% Jr 40% Sr. Freshman numbers were even worse but I’m fine with throwing them out. Kind of a disingenuous way to make your case unless I’m missing something?
His Junior, Senior season he was moved out of position to SG. I like Sheppard's NBA prospects over Hinrich as an offensive player but there's no way he remotely projects to be a better defensive player then Hinrich at the next level . I used Hinrichs Sophomore as Sheppard is fairly old for his class turning 20 at draft time so I used the class they were closest in age. I understand if you didn't watch ball back theb looking at Hinrichs raw numbers thinking he was ave but he had a few years where he was a top 15 PG this was still the era where PGs were not offensive dynamos but predominantly facilitators, during his short prime many thought he had all star potential
I agree that if you ignore the massively worse steal rate, block rate, and 3PA rate (keep in mind Reed is playing 5 fewer minutes a game) and pretend Hinrich's freshman season didn't happen (spotting him six months in the process, so I'm not really sure why you think this is fairer?) he looks comparable. But then you're ignoring about half the reason to be high on Sheppard!
The 3pa is only 0.7 worse. I think Sheppard will be a positive defender at the next level but no way he touches Hinrich on defence so I didn't even compare the defensive numbers to be honest. Yeah it's a tough one because while he's not old to the point of it being a detriment, you can't ignore the fact he's technically Sophomore ages he turns 20 a couple of days before the draft.
I think Sheppard will be a positive defender at the next level but no way he touches Hinrich on defence so I didn't even compare the defensive numbers to be honest.
Yeah I heavily disagree with you here and I think that's the biggest explanation for our difference in opinion on him.
Fair enough I just don't ever seeing Sheppard making an all defence team
Also if you pretend the Jr and Sr seasons didn’t happen lol
I feel like Hinrich was more dynamic and athletic, more of an attacking threat, which I don't think Sheppard is at all. He also seems picky about his shots - which is fine, just don't think he can be a load-carrier. And it bothers me that when he and Dillingham share the floor, it's almost always Dillingham who initiates. In part this is due to Sheppard's off-ball shooting, but his teammate is a vastly better threat to drive and creator.
Sheppard's hands are incredible defensively, but I have doubts about the rest. Picks up so many steals, a heady player, but he's still small, fairly slow, and by the eye-test always looks like a role-player.
Hinrich was an athletic player. Shiftier than Reed, too.
/u/jaynay1 posted some of his combine measurements and they suggest that he's actually very fast (and has a great vertical but that is pretty obvious just from watching games). He's also been very successful on those occasions when he does drive and iso, which makes me think his hesitation to do so is less about him being unable and more about how he's being coached currently. But IMO even as a mostly offball and P&R guard, he still has tremendous value in the league, especially on a team like the Spurs or Rockets where he would be sharing creation duties most of the time.
I've definitely seen good athleticism. I've been watching all their games since January. He has more athleticism than one might think, but it's not really excellent. Not to cut him down, but it's pretty good speed once he gets going, good leaping once he gets going, that sort of thing. Last game, he blocked a three-point attempt and got up there. It's just not athleticism that's really employed that much. To get past defenders, he'll use some shiftiness or else he's backing up like a toy race car and then bursting by.
I definitely don't think he's a bad athlete, but again, it's Dillingham who has the ball in his hands in sets. I just continually question the range of things Sheppard can do offensively without actions creating things for him. And, like you said, in certain environments that would be terrific. If he can get better team defense and on-ball defense, he can be a low-mistake guy who can win possessions in certain ways.
He is a white guard with limited athleticism.
Strongly disagree on the limited athleticism part, I think this is a blind spot people have with him. He is very athletic.
Kirk Hinrich was helluva player and was a major contributor to the Bulls teams he played for. I don't get why you thought it was an insult to compare Sheppard with him.
I mean he wasn't nearly as good in college. Worse at steals, worse at blocks, worse at threes, worse scorer, and worse passer. Way worse if you just count his freshman year. Not really sure what you want me to say. I'm not going to pretend the best comp for Reed is someone worse than he was just because he's also small and white. That's doing him a massive disservice.
Don't think too much when people say Reed is unathletic. It's a part of the racist mainstream media narrative surrounding white players. Reed seems to me to be on the upper end of average for an NBA athlete. He will be solid, maybe above average, but not a supreme NBA athlete. SGA and Luka are both MVP candidates, and they are in that same level of athleticism. Athleticism will in no way hold Reed back.
Luka is an elite level athlete, just not your typical one. I think everyone is learning athleticism isn't exclusive to just moving fast and jumping high.
Speed, strength, jumping, etc, is what athletic ability is. The worse someone is at those things, the worse an athlete they are. Luka is not unathletic, but he's not a supreme athlete like LeBron, Westbrook, or Ja. He's solid to above average as an NBA athlete. What makes him (and SGA) good is not athletic ability. Luka is insanely skilled. He's an MVP candidate because he's good at basketball, not because of athletic ability.
Luka is on record saying he did not learn or deliberately practice his step backs or slow steps. That's not necessarily just skill, it's physical ability. People who can naturally run fast or jump high, their bodies don't have to be taught to position their legs, knees, heels, or feet a certain way, it's all done naturally.
If you are into dancing, it's the same thing. Professionals who are learned and pros who are born gifted look different doing the exact same moves.
You're trying to redefine the word "athletic." Luka has a natural feel for the game and an incredible mind for basketball. He doesn't go out and wow people with his physical dominance. He wows them with his incredibly smart and skillful play.
I agree with what you’re saying, but I don’t think any of that is what people mean when they talk about a players athletic profile/ability. I agree those things do make a great athlete, same things Jokic has too, but it’s just not what most mean when talking about how good of an athlete someone is.
Yeah exactly. I'm not saying he's Ja or anything, but he's an average to above average athlete for his position (depending on how much you knock him for his wingspan) and it's frustrating to me that people instantly dismiss him as unathletic without even watching him.
Strongly disagree on the limited athleticism part, I think this is a blind spot people have with him. He is very athletic.
He's quick and is a strong vertical athlete and a lot of the "concerns" are related to race/archetype, agreed. I would still say lateral mobility (in terms of POA defense/screen navigation) is a potential concern though.
Is being white a negative on your scouting report?
No, being unathletic is. He is just a typical unathletic white guard. Is it really controversial to say white American basketball players are considerably less athletic than black basketball players?
There have been maybe one or two NBA-level athletic white American basketball players and they were young Gordon Hayward and maybe Zach Collins. Feel free to give more examples.
Reed posted what would have been the fourth best lane agility time in the entire 2023 draft class and what would have been a top ten max vertical in the class. You can't just assume he's not athletic because he's white lol. I know me telling you this will not change your mind on him being athletic, but would your opinion of him change if someone did convince you he was?
lol why did you choose those 2 guys for the history of the NBA?! Or did you mean in recent years? Zach Collins?
Why are you making a distinction between white Americans and white Europeans or South Americans btw? Just curious what the reasoning there is?
No, being unathletic is. He is just a typical unathletic white guard. Is it really controversial to say white American basketball players are considerably less athletic than black basketball players?
Yes? This is race science lmao and ends up giving black athletes the same negative stereotypes in the end
Yeah I’m not gonna take the bait here but it’s almost like you’re double counting his lack of athleticism because he’s white.
It seems like you want to get offended (forcefully) and get some bonus sympathy points. Nah, I will not take the bait.
I’m not offended, I just think you suck at watching basketball if skin tone is the crux of your scouting report.
No, being unathletic is
As I said, it isn't. I just couldn't wrap my head around why you are getting so offended by the objective observation of white American players being way less athletic compared to black players.
He's Lonzo Ball but four inches shorter.
no way
lonzo couldn’t shoot well his first two years
sheppard is stroking it at an all time clip
Dillingham truthers vindicated love to see it.
Also Devin Carter 📈
He's not a real PG and a bit small as a SG but could be a nice fit alongside a taller PG or a main ball handler. Yet, he displays shooting, toughness, team play and a great mentality. Could see him with the Spurs or bring his mentality to the Hornets or Pistons if they fall oustide the top 5 (I'm not sure of any of the potential forward/bigs in the top 5 either)
Clingan is wayyyyy too high. No way in hell im taking him over flip. Flip is much more skilled and has a much higher ceiling. Clingan is a very good rim protector but too limited of a offensive player to take in the top 10. He isn't a freak athlete like dereck lively was last year to justify a top 10 pick on a limited offensive player.
Agreed.
McCain at 20, just come back and win a title with Flagg
Is he a Christian Braun type of player?
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