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MMW: Tr*mp will encourage his supporters to attack voting centers in the biggest cities of swing states like PA (Philly), GA (Atlanta), and MI (Detroit), etc.
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He thinks he’s going to win. He’s ahead in the polls. So many people think he’ll win. This is awful
What polls? People say things like this often but without specifying anything.
Check out 538, they compile and analyze polling data. In short, if the election were today based on state polling information, Trump would win by around 310-315 votes. Here is a video of a guy analyzing the polling data if you prefer to hear it instead of digging yourself.
Of course they are volatile and subject to change, but at this point last election Trump was polling very below Biden and ended being a pretty close election. We'll see.
I've been a lifelong poll watcher, and have usually trusted them in the past, mostly because they've generally confirmed my own beliefs based on what I see and hear around me.
This year, for the first time, the polls feel very strange, and the difference between what the polls say, and what I see and hear around me are very different. I think many of the polls are being gamed somehow, and they don't reflect reality.
First of all, I see far less visible, enthusiastic support for HitlerPig, especially among the "normal" voters. You still see idiots with signs on their trucks, but they are obviously the crackpots. We aren't seeing anywhere close to the number of yard signs, MAGA hats, and other indications of a broad support for HitlerPig.
He lost the last election by a significant margin, and it was AFTER that loss that he launched his Insurrection, and stole hundreds of classified documents. Those actions probably didn't earn him any new followers, and it likely lost him many.
When HitlerPig was flying high, and doing terrible things as president, I'd ask conservative acquaintances if they still supported him, and they'd always say "There isn't anybody else." Any Democrat was off the table. HitlerPig was their only choice. Now they have RFK Jr, who looks like a viable alternative to many MAGAturds, and HitlerPig has never had a viable alternative before. RFK is already on the ballot in a number of battleground states, and intends to get on all 50, and his antivax, conspiracy theory, wierdo persona will draw off a lot more HitlerPig voters than Biden voters. 20% of Republicans are still voting in the primaries for an alternative candidate who isn't even running. He can't even draw 100% of the vote when he's the only game in town!
Biden has a problem in that he has lost a lot of the youth vote that helped him significantly in 2020. They are angry that there has been no real movement on Student Loan Reform, and they are very angry about our unwavering support of Israel's genocide in Gaza. I doubt they'll vote for HitlerPig, but it is likely they won't vote at all. Hopefully, that loss of support will be matched by Republican non-voters, and they'll cancel each other out.
I try to keep up on the Enthusiasm Gap, as that often telegraphs the election. In 2016, HitlerPig definitely won the Enthusiasm Gap over Hillary. It was about even in 2020, but it feels like Biden is slightly ahead this time. Biden followers tend to like him, and want to vote for him, while many HitlerPig voters seem to be searching for alternatives. He still has his supporters, but they are seeming increasingly mean and angry, which most people, even Republicans, find unrelatable.
And then there's the message. Biden is still talking about the good things he wants to do for America, while HitlerPig is on a years long tantrum about how unfair he's being treated. When he does talk about his vision for the future of America, it sounds scary, and a huge sell-out to corporate interests. He has nothing that would actually help the aberage American citizen. If more people knew about things like Project 2025 or Rick Scott's Rescue America Plan, many would question a Republican vote.
I'm hoping at least one debate manages to happen (they actually pulled off 2 in 2020), because Biden will probably have a big post-debate bounce, and that will go a long ways to taking even more wind out of HitlerPig's sails.
I have a republiqan friend who owns up to voting for Trump once. She says that no conservative or republiqan she knows will vote for Trump again. These same polls predicted a "red wave" in 2022 and we barely got any spotting. So I don't trust them either.