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Unprecedented Tornado Forecast in the Great Plains (normally a scale of 10)
ImageTo put this in layman's terms: Wafflehouses across Oklahoma and North Texas have closed in advance of this storm
Holy shit
For anyone reading this, unaware the implications, the waffle House index is used by the United States government to determine when and where to deploy FEMA
Can confirm, FEMA team member for 15 years.
That's actually a thing? I thought it was a myth.
Waffle house were open during catrina.
HOLY FUCKING SHIT
It’s a full blown, five alarm DEFCON-1 crap your pants emergency
I saw the picture and caption and was like, oh yea sure. This stuffs getting blown out proportion. I scrolled down and saw this and did the sign of the cross as a non-practicing catholic.
This made me remember when Kanye tweeted DEFCON-3 because he didn’t know if 1 or 5 was the worst lol
Holy mother of god, omg
Somebody launch a nuke at that storm quick!
A nuke? Please. Just move it with a black sharpie
The REAL genius has arrived. The most stable.
With the most bigly of handsome hands
That's impossible... No such storm exists!
Holy. Shit.
Yeah that puts things into perspective.
I know some people think it’s a meme but “Waffle house closing” is about as close to telling lay people something neigh apocalyptic is coming as you can get. For most Americans with a waffle house in their area the ONLY times they have ever seen one closed is when natural disasters occur. The only other times is when they are moving locations.
Defcon One.
Thank you for translating into Florida Man
Never has mankind come up with such a nonsense word that when combined with the word closed bring up such forbidding.
Are You for fucking real? No way.
Cthulu: How am I supposed to compete with that?
Jesus.
Waffle House will be the one restaurant open during the Rapture. This must be a truly epic storm system.
That put the fear of God in me faster than "we may have to amputate"
When is this supposed to hit? I’m in the Texas hot zone and nothings happening
The greatest threat will be later tonight when ground surface temperatures decrease allowing for the wind in the storms to pick up with less interruption.
So this is how it ends
humans decided the best way to deal with global warming was f around and find out.
Not just closed, they packed up everything, building included and fled.
They packed the waffles and the house!
Holy shit a fellow old person.
My god.
Damn!
Ah fuck I need Frankie McDonald forecast
Whaaaat??
Oh it's serious serious.
FUCK!!!
Should they call for help if they see waffles flying ?
Holy Fuck
Unprecedented
We are going to lose a lot of Dollar Generals.
And Amazon warehouses...
Yeah, when I saw the day 1 outlook this morning I knew it was going to be an interesting day, didn't see this graphic yet though. Hoping for the best for everyone in that area.
Lots of METs saying they have never seen anything like that
This will keep happening over and over, setting the bar higher and higher, until we reach extinction level events. Hopefully the future generations can do something about it but the outlook is grim.
I am a public adjuster in Oklahoma and we are getting prepared for probably the biggest storm night of the year if anybody runs into problems with their insurance company message me and I will make sure that someone gets with you
The Oklahoma Insurance Department has a small list of suggestions to get ready for a storm
- Create a home inventory (photos/video)
- Know your policy & coverage type (Replacement or Actual Cash Value)
- Have a safety plan (home, work & school)
- Practice safety plan (especially with young children)
- Prepare a “Go Bag”(helmet, goggles, flashlight, water, snacks, baby supplies, medication and chargers)
- Protect your head from flying debris & wear shoes
- If you have a storm shelter, clean it in advance
- Plan for your pets
- Have multiple ways to receive alerts (NOAA Weather Radio, phone apps, TV)
- Understand the difference between a watch (possibility of concerning weather) and a warning (severe weather is imminent)
- Check for weather alerts frequently when storms are forecasted
Find out more at https://www.oid.ok.gov/consumers/get-ready/
You should cross post this to the r/youshouldknow, r/Texas, r/Oklahoma , and r/homeowners subreddits if you haven't already
How do I cross post?
On mobile: bottom right of this post, there’s a little arrow pointing right. Click that, then click Community, and you should be able to cross post over to those other subreddits.
Thanks for helping facilitate, for the greater good. This is the way.
Agreed. I’m going to save u/Mossephine’s comment for future use. Thank you both.
Just watching the live local t.v. feed. It looks like the locals are getting pertinent and timely feeds from the chasers. Take care.
Cheers mate. Stay great.
This is the way. Also, good work my friend.
Tau’va
First make a full post on one of the subs, then I believe under the share option you can cross post to other communities.
r/par163 if you do that please let me know and I will cross post to other communities. Might help? Who knows?
I got them up thank you for the help
This is awesome of you to post here. Upvoting for visibility. Stay safe everyone.
Damnit, a new roof would be on me this year. Wait, I don't like the sound of that.
Always Be Closing
You would think but I don't like tornado loss it's emotionally charged
This should be stickied
The biggest storm of the year…. So far…
Wear shoes? That’s a tall order for Oklahoma.
I'm in this picture and I don't like it
You should probably get out of this picture
Everyone in Oklahoma move... looks like about 2 inches to the left and you'll be fine.
Thanks, have done this. Unfortunately, my daughter was actually facing towards me and the rest of the family at the time, so she went to the right. We'll miss her.
Four inches to the right seems okay as well.
She had her chance. She's kind of annoying
Give us an update? Hope that you’re safe.
I'm also in this picture. Very bad feeling 🫠
Same, how many points are you sitting on?
agreed!! stay safe, hoping everything goes alright for you and your fam!
Even for Oklahoma, we are in prep mode today. It is rare to have Tulsa in the white, but here we are. I fear we may be in for more lost life when we just had deadly tornados last week.
We don’t get spooked easily, but we are all spooked today
I'm a good ways away in East TN and I'm terrified just looking at the graphic, I can't imagine what it feels like for y'all. Hoping that this looks worse than it ends up being...stay safe out there.
That’s what we are hoping for as well
Unfortunately the graphs for the next two days aren't looking too great either. Illinois and Ohio are under the gun on Tuesday and the Tennessee area is under the gun on Wednesday
Tennessee checking in. It's making my tummy feel funny. I hate this weather.
Nothing is scarier than when people from Tornado Alley take one look at a weather report and say ‘Nope’.
You’re not kidding.
I even grew up in the most tornado-y part of the state that gets hit every single time and I’ve not seen a model like this in my 40 years.
Lived my whole life in Oklahoma. I’ve always told my out of state friends, no matter how scary the weather looks, if I’m not worried then you don’t need to be, but the moment I say it’s time to go, ITS TIME TO GO.
Have you said IT’S TIME TO GO yet? Cuz it kinda looks like it’s time to go.
Seriously though, be safe!
I didn’t realise that was physically possible
Based on the fact that they made a 1-10 scale with 10 being a nightmare scenario, and this model just spit out several numbers in the mid 20s and apparently a fucking 42…It wasn’t supposed to be.
Buckle up. This could get Biblical.
This planet has been and can be physically harsher than it is. Much harsher! Any temperature standard, any hurricane record, can be obliterated if the atmospheric balance is altered.
This is what we get for not respecting our planet. So be it.
The planet will survive. Humans, not so guaranteed.
Gaia is like a honey badger, she just don’t care!
EF6
Funny how just a few days after EmpLemon's video on Moore, Oklahoma, this happens.
Apparently there was a white bison born in north texas a few days ago...
What is the context of a white bison?
White bisons are particularly rare compared to even the rare albino births, only about 1 in 10 million are born albino. To some Native Americans of the region, a white bison is an omen of great change or danger to come.
Before the Moore Oklahoma tornado of 1999 (an EF5), two white bison were born a few days before in Oklahoma.
Same thing with the 2013 EF5 one (which was the last EF5 to occur). The "curse" is sort of similar to the common native burial ground trope. 30-60 million bison used to roam the Great Plains where tornadoes commonly happened back then and especially today. When the US expanded westward, they began to exterminate the population until only a few remained. Part of this was to use their pelts, another part was to starve the Native Americans of a major resource and force them to submit. Once they submitted, they were moved to reservations in Oklahoma. Practically, the tornadoes decimating settlements in Oklahoma could be seen as a curse put on the current inhabitants. When the elusive white bison appears, it only serves to "strengthen" the superstition due to its connection with the natives.
That’s very interesting. Thank you!
Damn i need that ⭐️ ⭐️ ⭐️ pelt
Significance in some native American tribes as a sign but I'm not sure what exactly.
Given the context, no good at all.
Such a great video. I lived in Norman during the 2013 EF5 and the damage was unimaginable. Brought me to tears when I saw it.
Dude I literally just finished that video over lunch. Surreal.
I’m in Comanche, wish me luck
Good luck!
Keep your shoes on. Put on a helmet. Have a bag with meds, chargers and flash lights.
If you don’t already have a storm shelter, you’d best dig fast!
But for real, stay safe!
Keep safe buddy.
a value of 42 in a 1-10 scale is terrifying as fuck icl
Where you seeing 42?
bottom right corner
Thanks for all the fish
Is this a log scale by any chance?
I really hope it’s not.
42?
Bottom right corner of the image: Max 42.5
If scale goes 1 to 10, why does the maximum is 42.5? Could you please explain like I'm five?
1-10 is the color scale, set to that range to encapsulate the vast majority of situations and to allow for meaningful color gradients when viewing. The measured/calculated value of 42 means that spot is over four times the "normal" shown worst case.
I'm assuming it's because the 1-10 scale was modeled using historical data. Going back in history the highest risk recorded = 10. Fast forward years after the scales initial creation and this same measure far surpasses the historical data used to create the scale. If they recreate the scale next week 42 would be 10 on the new 1-10 scale.
This 1-10 scale just equals some other measure. Now the maximum for that measure was just increased. Hope that helps.
Because the storm is big and scary. Like, "4x more than a 10" levels of scary.
Bottom right max:42.05
What does that even mean?
Can we draw some sort of line to contain it? With like a sharpie or something? Sorry if already tried
Sharpies only extend the area based on politically-motivated forecasts.
It's not 3 Roentgen...
Not great, not terrible.
What’s bother me is that’s the number they had . I suspect it’s much much higher
what does those numbers mean exactly?
This is called the Significant Tornado Parameter, also known as the STP. It takes all atmospheric conditions and estimates the likelihood of a tornado. During the 2011 Tornado Super Outbreak, the highest value on the STP was 17.5 - what we are seeing here is absolutely unprecedented in meteorology
Wait, the number's only been up to 17 and now it's at 42?
Does the chance of tornados with high estimated wind speed increase as the numbers get higher? Or is it only the likelihood of a tornado?
That our meteorology science is getting better and we're very, very certain the conditions are not just ripe for convection thunderstorms, but highly destructive, long-track, wide-based and high speed tornados.
They're fuct
But seriously folks stay safe
Hello from England, how is it looking so far?
Bad. It's predicted to hit between 7pm and midnight, and any disaster that starts after people go to sleep has the potential to be a LOT more deadly.
I’d be surprised if anyone slept!
I grew up in Ohio and remember nights in the basement, listening to the radio for updates. Y’all have it much worse!
Just getting started.
Some are coming in west to East. Most of OKC is central and Tulsa is northeast. Those won’t hit until 10’ish and then overnight into Tulsa where they’ll pick up a ton of strength. I’m lucky my house came with a tornado shelter but sucks I’ll have to either stay up late and wait for them to pass or try to hear the tornado sirens if I go to sleep. Neither a great option, they’re much more convenient when they come at like 5-8 pm not when we are sleeping
Why is DFW showing a 10 but the weather apps aren’t showing much of a chance at all?
That’s what I was wondering in burleson lmao
I’m in Fort Worth wondering the same thing.
Follow r/tornado
Kansas resident here.
Stay safe tonight Oklahomans.
Scale of 1-10 and there's a 25 on the map.. not ideal
The max recorded was apparently a 42.
For context, apparently the highest value seen before this was 17.5. During the 2011 outbreak which was one of the largest tornado outbreaks ever recorded.
This is 2 and a half times worse
I live in OKC. It’s crazy how many places are closing early just in case anything happens. All anyone has talked about today, rightfully so. Us Oklahomans know this stuff is nothing to fuck with.
I am really getting sick of the word "unprecedented", and just how damn frequently it has been being used lately.
I miss precedented events so badly 😩
Get used to it. It’s only starting.
Jesus Christ. As someone from the Bay Area in California who’s most insane weather experience was the CZS Lightning super complex a couple years back and the torrential wildfires
But this, this fucking scares the shit out of me. I pray to whoever is out there that yall in the Midwest stay safe, tornadoes are no fucking joke
So I see we’re at the “spiders in my colonoscopy bag” end of the “Oh fuck” scale
Which day?
Today and into tonight. If you're in an area with a 17 or higher, there is a 90% likelihood of an EF2+ within 25 miles of the number. Note: the intensity of the storms here are also leaning towards long track that will spend a great deal of time on the ground.
Already some storms producing rotation outside of the white area.
I'm not in that white zone, thank goodness, I hope people pay attention.
Not necessarily true, a lot of the areas with high values will see zero storms because of capping, especially in texas.
This is a good point, but I'd advise against any sort of complacency when watching this storm system tonight. Texans should stay glued to whatever weather source they have and keep an eye on the weather, purely as a safety precaution.
But DFW doesn't have anything in the weather forecast except clouds... I'm confused
In Taylor County, Texas and same. I’m very confused.
I’m in Dallas and noticed as well
Highly worrying situation. Stay safe out there !!
I don't even live in the plains, but I'm scared for everyone there.
This one goes up to 11
(and way beyond)
I spy with my little eyes, 25
42.05 is the max per the scale
Just how likely are you to die if you are in a 42.5 area?
On a scale from 1-10, where 1 is fine and 10 being dead, about 42.5
50/50
Wasn’t Oklahoma planning on building the tallest skyscraper?
I have been monitoring the NOAA Mesoscale Discussions for this event and about 3-4 hours ago it was nasty in Oklahoma. But it is looking like it is dying down, though it could turn nasty at any second. Still a very volatile situation that should still be closely monitored and contingencies in place for when SHTF.
Link for the curious https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
It should be noted that the greatest threat is actually predicted for later tonight, which makes the situation even more dangerous
After 2 AM right?
It’s okie tradition to stand on the porch and watch
But this goes all the way to 22... r/tornadotap
Welcome to Climate Change, MAGA climate deniers! The ocean is hotter so the tornadoes get more violent. It's real simple. Next year it will be worse, and the next year it will be worse.
Lot of normal people who believe in the scientific method also live in the area pictured here.
I'm in Enid.
Stay safe friend and have a plan to get somewhere safe now. The entire white/purple area also has a risk of softball sized hail as well
Thank you. About to get off work and head home.
User deleted comment
27d
Not me. I voted no on Tornados
This is horrifying. I’d die of a panic attack before the tornado even got to me
Me.
Holy fuck I would not be sticking around.
Literally just finished Amtrak-ing from Los Angeles to Connecticut, very glad I’m not dealing with this. We had some strong winds in Colorado which made us go slow for a few hours, and then our train in Virginia hit a fucking tree which caused an 8+ hour delay… but thankfully no tornadoes.
This is extremely similar to the April 27 2011 super outbreak
Damn, the marketing budget for Twisters must be incredible
Of course, right after EmpLemon's video on Moore.
Thats crayzy with a cray, 22 in a scale of 1 to 10
So 25 is... bad?
Soooo Oklahoma is definitely getting one
When is this suppose to hit?
EMPLEMON YOU MOTHERFUCKER
Emp needs a follow up video after this shit. Apparently a white buffalo was born 6 days ago.
WHITE BUFFALO AND EMPLEMON YOU MOTHERFUCKERS
Pete Delkus did not agree with this assessment.
Seeing the number 25 where I live is just a bit disconcerting
with all this tornado shit going on im about to slap a barrel onto a truck, fill it with little GPS pebbles, and drive out there
Almost double the max! What the hell, that's crazy. All the best to the residents of those areas that see storms, and particularly tornadoes.
Thats horrifying, good luck to everyone in the region!
Here we go again. Another long night
That is fucking crazy, Lots of METs saying they have never seen anything like that on this model.