Hey y'all, it’s been a while.
A huge thank you again to everyone who followed along last summer counting down the Top 131 FBS Programs of the Last 40 Years, which spanned 133 days and counted down to the season. For those unfamiliar with it, TL;DR, I ranked each FBS program over the last 40 years using my “proprietary” ranking algorithm, which scores a team’s season based on their strength of schedule, margin of victory, and record. Thanks again to everyone who donated, UMeister and the mod team who got the final ranking on the sub banner, all the people who subscribed on Substack, and all the commenters and readers. It truly was an insane time, some of the most fun I’ve ever had.
With that, we’re due for a few updates.
Last time a bunch of people were asking about a coffee table book, and I mentioned I’d be working on turning the series into one. Unfortunately, I haven’t made much progress. Last September I met with a publishing agency over the phone, but they decided the book wasn’t a fit for them. From there, I put things on pause to focus on my personal life and work. I still plan to publish a book in the future, but things are on hold until I can fully commit to it.
Last but not least…I got another series coming this July. Much shorter this time, but another countdown to the season starting July 7, 2 PM ET. I won’t reveal too much, but it’s a simulation with stats, storylines, helmet stickers, awards, and I think it’ll be pretty hype. So move any events you have scheduled for that day including weddings and baby showers.
40 Year FBS Ranking Update, 2024 Edition
Rank | Team | Link to Original Post | Overall Score | Record | Ranking Change |
---|
1 | Alabama | Link | 50812 | 393-121-2 | 0 |
2 | Ohio State | Link | 49787 | 396-102-5 | 0 |
3 | Florida State | Link | 48283 | 376-125-4 | 0 |
4 | Oklahoma | Link | 47407 | 374-126-4 | 0 |
5 | Florida | Link | 44607 | 352-146-3 | 0 |
6 | Michigan | Link | 44282 | 355-137-5 | 2 |
7 | Georgia | Link | 43798 | 366-137-4 | 0 |
8 | Miami (FL) | Link | 42719 | 349-144 | -2 |
9 | Clemson | Link | 41813 | 356-147-3 | 1 |
10 | Nebraska | Link | 41652 | 342-156-1 | -1 |
11 | Penn State | Link | 41075 | 343-149-1 | 1 |
12 | USC | Link | 40956 | 333-159-5 | -1 |
13 | LSU | Link | 40472 | 335-156-4 | 0 |
14 | Notre Dame | Link | 40366 | 335-157-2 | 0 |
15 | Texas | Link | 38144 | 323-169-3 | 1 |
16 | Tennessee | Link | 37800 | 323-166-7 | 1 |
17 | Auburn | Link | 37737 | 326-165-5 | -2 |
18 | Oregon | Link | 36954 | 330-162 | 0 |
19 | Washington | Link | 34256 | 295-188-3 | 3 |
20 | Texas A&M | Link | 33561 | 320-172-2 | 0 |
21 | Virginia Tech | Link | 33544 | 315-179-4 | -2 |
22 | Wisconsin | Link | 33169 | 305-187-5 | -1 |
23 | Iowa | Link | 31777 | 305-184-6 | 0 |
24 | Boise State | Link | 30360 | 271-85 | 1 |
25 | West Virginia | Link | 29666 | 296-186-4 | -1 |
26 | Oklahoma State | Link | 29429 | 286-198-3 | 1 |
27 | Kansas State | Link | 29237 | 277-208-3 | 3 |
28 | Michigan State | Link | 28954 | 278-204-4 | 1 |
29 | UCLA | Link | 28877 | 277-203-3 | -3 |
30 | TCU | Link | 27930 | 289-192-1 | 1 |
31 | BYU | Link | 27905 | 338-171-2 | -3 |
32 | Utah | Link | 27145 | 302-182-1 | 1 |
33 | Stanford | Link | 27049 | 246-224-4 | -1 |
34 | Arkansas | Link | 26132 | 261-222-3 | 0 |
35 | Colorado | Link | 25466 | 243-235-4 | 0 |
36 | Georgia Tech | Link | 25199 | 263-220-4 | 0 |
37 | Louisville | Link | 24940 | 275-207-2 | 1 |
38 | Arizona State | Link | 23646 | 258-214-3 | -1 |
39 | Syracuse | Link | 23427 | 252-226-4 | 0 |
40 | NC State | Link | 23130 | 269-216-3 | 4 |
41 | South Carolina | Link | 22994 | 249-224-6 | -1 |
42 | North Carolina | Link | 22887 | 253-229-3 | 0 |
43 | Ole Miss | Link | 22745 | 255-219-3 | 6 |
44 | Virginia | Link | 22729 | 254-225-4 | -3 |
45 | Arizona | Link | 22237 | 242-227-5 | 0 |
46 | Boston College | Link | 21875 | 257-228-2 | -3 |
47 | Texas Tech | Link | 21790 | 268-216-1 | -1 |
48 | Fresno State | Link | 21749 | 302-191-3 | 0 |
49 | Air Force | Link | 20891 | 299-191-1 | 1 |
50 | Toledo | Link | 20622 | 295-177-5 | 2 |
51 | Pittsburgh | Link | 20548 | 244-234-5 | -4 |
52 | Baylor | Link | 20187 | 229-245-1 | -1 |
53 | Cincinnati | Link | 20008 | 254-224-2 | 0 |
54 | Missouri | Link | 19896 | 234-241-5 | 1 |
55 | Washington State | Link | 18912 | 222-245-2 | -1 |
56 | Mississippi State | Link | 18651 | 234-243-2 | 0 |
57 | Houston | Link | 18092 | 243-233-2 | 0 |
58 | Maryland | Link | 17372 | 219-248-3 | 0 |
59 | California | Link | 17098 | 216-250-4 | 0 |
60 | Minnesota | Link | 15850 | 226-249-2 | 2 |
61 | Southern Miss | Link | 15630 | 255-225-1 | -1 |
62 | Marshall | Link | 15428 | 209-131 | 1 |
63 | Northwestern | Link | 15134 | 208-265-3 | 4 |
64 | Oregon State | Link | 14986 | 197-271-3 | 5 |
65 | UCF | Link | 14848 | 198-147 | 1 |
66 | Purdue | Link | 14674 | 205-265-4 | -2 |
67 | Illinois | Link | 14620 | 197-269-5 | -6 |
68 | Miami (OH) | Link | 14148 | 225-234-8 | 4 |
69 | Bowling Green | Link | 14031 | 239-226-5 | -4 |
70 | Kentucky | Link | 13742 | 215-259-1 | 0 |
71 | San Diego State | Link | 13459 | 248-231-5 | 0 |
72 | Wake Forest | Link | 13039 | 210-260-2 | 1 |
73 | Northern Illinois | Link | 13026 | 241-234-2 | -5 |
74 | Western Michigan | Link | 12391 | 242-222-3 | 0 |
75 | Hawaii | Link | 11946 | 244-256-5 | 1 |
76 | East Carolina | Link | 11401 | 220-253-1 | -1 |
77 | Navy | Link | 11349 | 222-255-1 | 1 |
78 | Appalachian State | Link | 11215 | 95-35 | 2 |
79 | Central Michigan | Link | 10824 | 228-233-8 | -2 |
80 | Memphis | Link | 10763 | 217-252-5 | 2 |
81 | Wyoming | Link | 10676 | 234-243-1 | 2 |
82 | Colorado State | Link | 10551 | 224-253-1 | -3 |
83 | Iowa State | Link | 10441 | 187-282-5 | 1 |
84 | Rutgers | Link | 9917 | 190-272-5 | 2 |
85 | Tulsa | Link | 9552 | 215-261-1 | -4 |
86 | Louisiana Tech | Link | 9514 | 209-205-4 | -1 |
87 | Troy | Link | 8776 | 159-125 | 5 |
88 | Nevada | Link | 8677 | 201-187 | -1 |
89 | South Florida | Link | 8661 | 149-141 | -1 |
90 | Indiana | Link | 8058 | 181-282-3 | 0 |
91 | Ball State | Link | 7974 | 210-251-4 | -2 |
92 | Louisiana | Link | 7817 | 223-248-1 | -1 |
93 | Kansas | Link | 6902 | 171-295-2 | 3 |
94 | Duke | Link | 6767 | 167-301-2 | 4 |
95 | Army | Link | 6684 | 203-266-2 | 0 |
96 | Ohio | Link | 6676 | 203-261-6 | 1 |
97 | San Jose State | Link | 6291 | 198-268-3 | -4 |
98 | SMU | Link | 5860 | 179-266-3 | -4 |
99 | Liberty | Link | 5324 | 53-23 | 2 |
100 | Utah State | Link | 4650 | 198-270-1 | -1 |
101 | Western Kentucky | Link | 4529 | 106-99 | -1 |
102 | Coastal Carolina | Link | 3539 | 52-35 | 0 |
103 | James Madison | Link | 2771 | 19-5 | 7 |
104 | UTSA | Link | 2706 | 80-69 | 3 |
105 | Middle Tennessee | Link | 2591 | 147-156 | -2 |
106 | Georgia Southern | Link | 2488 | 65-61 | -1 |
107 | Rice | Link | 2211 | 174-286-2 | 1 |
108 | Temple | Link | 1983 | 163-301 | -4 |
109 | Vanderbilt | Link | 1790 | 146-316-1 | -3 |
110 | Tulane | Link | 1741 | 177-297 | 1 |
111 | UAB | Link | 1524 | 140-169 | -2 |
112 | Jacksonville State | NEW | 874 | 9-4 | NEW |
113 | UConn | Link | -280 | 110-169 | -1 |
114 | Arkansas State | Link | -457 | 163-219-1 | -1 |
115 | Sam Houston | NEW | -821 | 3-9 | NEW |
116 | FAU | Link | -1178 | 96-134 | -2 |
117 | Old Dominion | Link | -1240 | 46-65 | -1 |
118 | New Mexico | Link | -1614 | 167-308 | -3 |
119 | Eastern Michigan | Link | -1932 | 161-294-5 | -2 |
120 | South Alabama | Link | -2360 | 60-88 | -2 |
121 | Georgia State | Link | -3272 | 51-83 | -2 |
122 | UNLV | Link | -3612 | 160-305-1 | -2 |
123 | Akron | Link | -4317 | 150-273-3 | -2 |
124 | North Texas | Link | -4424 | 133-216 | -2 |
125 | UTEP | Link | -5233 | 154-315-2 | -1 |
126 | Buffalo | Link | -5587 | 103-193 | -1 |
127 | Charlotte | Link | -6147 | 32-71 | -4 |
128 | Kent State | Link | -6250 | 138-317-1 | -2 |
129 | Texas State | Link | -6663 | 48-97 | -1 |
130 | FIU | Link | -7398 | 78-147 | -3 |
131 | ULM | Link | -8637 | 120-231 | -2 |
132 | New Mexico State | Link | -11116 | 125-333 | -2 |
133 | Massachusetts | Link | -13034 | 24-112 | -2 |
Best/Worst Performers of 2024
Best Performers
Below are teams whose 2023 was a top 5 season for them relative to their last 50 years, according to my algorithm (really a top 10% season, so if you only played 10 seasons in the FBS in the last 50 years, your top 1 season).
Arizona 10-3 (7-2 Pac-12) - 3rd best season in 50 years: It’s not hard to see why Jedd Fisch was sought after this offseason. Reigning Pac-12 Freshman Offensive POTY QB Noah Fifita is part of a team that returns major contributors for 2024 including 1400 yard WR Tetairoa McMillan, looking to contend for a Playoff spot.
Duke 8-5 (4-4 ACC) - 3rd best / 50 years: Even with star QB Riley Leonard injured for most of the year, coach Mike Elko pulled enough strings to get Duke’s 3rd best season in the last 50 years! He joins the rarefied air of successful Duke coaches with Steve Spurrier and David Cutcliffe.
Georgia 13-1 (8-0 SEC) - 3rd best / 50 years: Obviously this is not actually Georgia’s 3rd best season as they have 3 national titles in the last 50 years, but in terms of their resume, they actually beat out the 1980 team for me. 63-3 over Florida State had them finish as my #2 team of 2023.
Jacksonville State 9-4 (6-2 C-USA) - 1st best / 1 year: Jacksonville State had 8 conference titles in the FCS from 2011-22, and Rich Rodriguez is their coach, so it’s not too surprising to see them with such a hot start in joining the FBS. Still, they were picked 7th in the Conference USA preseason media poll, but managed to finish 3rd.
James Madison 11-2 (7-1 Sun Belt) - 1st best / 2 years: James Madison’s had about as good of a transition from FCS to FBS as you can have, going 19-5 in 2 years. They probably would’ve made a New Year's 6 bowl had they not lost in their second to last regular season game.
Kansas 9-4 (5-4 Big 12) - 3rd best / 50 years: KANSAS IS BACK. You know you’ve made it when your QB (Jalon Daniels) was rumored to transfer to be Lincoln Riley’s starting QB. Kansas finished ranked for the first time in 16 years, and Lance Leipold looks like one of the best coaches in the country.
Liberty 13-1 (8-0 C-USA) - 1st best / 6 years: Say what you want about Liberty as a school and their Fiesta Bowl performance, this was a damn good team, averaging 40.8 PPG in the regular season while giving up just 22.7 PPG. QB Kaidon Salter was 3rd in the NCAA in passing efficiency behind Heisman winner Jayden Daniels and finalist Bo Nix.
Memphis 10-3 (6-2 AAC) - 3rd best / 50 years: Memphis continues a near decade-long run of unprecedented success, started by Justin Fuente and continued by Mike Norvell and now Ryan Silverfield. All 3 losses were to 11-win teams (Missouri, Tulane, SMU).
Michigan 15-0 (9-0 Big Ten) - 1st best / 50 years: For a program as successful as Michigan, it’s pretty crazy that 2023 might’ve been their best season of ALL TIME! Wolverine fans will have to correct me in the comments, but it really seemed like a storybook year between the Connor Stalions situation, final chapter of the Harbaugh era, and a perfect 15-0, undisputed record.
Missouri 11-2 (6-2 SEC) - 3rd best / 50 years: Miz. For a team whose 2023 over/under win total was 6.5 coming into the year, with a coach on the hot seat, going 11-2 with 4 wins over Top 25 opponents qualifies as a success. 5 star WR Luther Burden will get the national attention, but 1600 yard RB Cody Schrader, a transfer from Division II Truman, was the unsung hero.
New Mexico State 10-5 (7-1 C-USA) - 1st best / 50 years: No matter what situation you put him in, Jerry Kill can coach, man. Taking a program like New Mexico State to a record like 10-5 is Coach of the Year stuff, as the Aggies’ previous best win total in the last 50 years was just 7. Shout-out to Diego Pavia pissing on the UNM logo.
Ohio 10-3 (6-2 MAC) - 2nd best / 50 years: For a program as successful as Ohio under Frank Solich, I’m really surprised their 2nd best year in the last 50 came under Tim Albin in 2023. Still no MAC title for these Cats, but they appear to be in good hands.
Ole Miss 11-2 (6-2 SEC) - 1st best / 50 years: Lane Kiffin has something brewing in Oxford. He’s now put up separate 11-2 and 10-3 seasons, the former of which I deemed Ole Miss’s best in the last 50 years. More proof that college football runs through USC (we taught Kiffin and Jaxson Dart everything they know)!
Oregon 12-2 (8-1 Pac-12) - 5th best / 50 years: Bo Nix’s stats were stupid last year. 77.4% completions for 4508 yards with 45 TD to just 3 INT. He was the most focused and had the most fun of his career, and finished as the NCAA’s all-time leader with 61 games started at QB.
Sam Houston 3-9 (2-6 C-USA) - 1st best / 1 year: I could’ve put this in the “Worst Performers” category, but I’ll be nice to you, Sam Houston State. Similar to FCS->FBS transition buddy Jacksonville State, they won 6 conference titles in the FCS from 2011-21, so I expect them to be a lot better in the next few years.
South Alabama 7-6 (4-4 Sun Belt) - 2nd best / 12 years: This was really a down year for South Alabama, as they were expected to compete for the Sun Belt title, but it was still their 2nd best season since moving up to the FBS. QB Carter Bradley leaves as the school’s all-time passing leader with 5995 yards.
SMU 11-3 (8-0 AAC) - 5th best / 48 years: This was SMU’s best season since 1984, around the time of the Pony Express. SMU won their first conference title in almost 40 years, and join the ACC next year as a dark horse contender as long as their Group of 5-level depth isn’t exposed.
Texas 12-2 (8-1 Big 12) - 5th best / 50 years: Yep, even for as good of a program as Texas is, Sark just put up one of the top 5 seasons in the last 50 years for the Longhorns. They had an all-star coaching staff featuring Sark, Kyle Flood, Pete Kwiatkowski, Jeff Choate, Tashard Choice, and Bo Davis, so no surprise last year was finally the breakthrough they’ve been waiting for.
Texas State 8-5 (4-4 Sun Belt) - 1st best / 12 years: GJ Kinne established himself as one of the hottest young coaches in the country, putting up 36.7 PPG in his first season and revitalizing the career of QB TJ Finley. He kind of botched the whole Finley/Jayden de Laura situation for 2024, but somehow lucked into 2023 Sun Belt POTY Jordan McCloud.
Troy 11-3 (7-1 Sun Belt) - 3rd best / 22 years: Jon Sumrall coached 2 seasons at Troy, with a 23-4 record, 2 Sun Belt titles, and 2 of the 3 best years in Troy FBS history. He will be missed.
Tulane 11-3 (8-0 AAC) - 4th best / 50 years: And here’s where Jon Sumrall went! The season didn’t quite go the way Tulane expected it to, averaging just 26.4 PPG while giving up 20.5 PPG, but they were 4-0 in one-possession games, getting to 11-1 before losing the AAC Championship and bowl game after Willie Fritz left.
UNLV 9-5 (6-2 MWC) - 4th best / 46 years: It’s a travesty that the sideline Turnover Slot Machine™ was removed for 2023, but UNLV obviously made the most of a bad situation. UNLV lost the Guaranteed Rate Bowl to Kansas in a game of “loser has to send their usual starting QB to USC to compete for Lincoln Riley’s starting QB job”, so Mountain West Freshman of the Year Jayden Maiava is now a Trojan. UNLV still has near-1500 yard WR Ricky White and offensive coordinator Brennan Marion, so the passing attack should still be just as potent.
Washington 14-1 (9-0 Pac-12) - 2nd best / 50 years: Similar to Michigan, this felt like a dream season for Washington up until the final game. They went 6-1 against Top 25 opponents with the only loss to #1 Michigan, beating #3 Texas, #5 Oregon, #8 Oregon, #11 Oregon State, #18 Utah, and #20 USC. The 2023 Huskies will go down as one of those “streets won’t forget” teams.
Worst Performers
Below are teams whose 2023 was a worst 5 season for them relative to their last 50 years, according to my algorithm.
Arizona State 3-9 (2-7 Pac-12) - 1st worst season in 50 years: While Arizona had one of their 3 best seasons of the last 50 years, Arizona State had their WORST much to the chagrin of Sun Devil fans. Still, hope is high for Kenny Dillingham who has the undesirable task of cleaning up Herm Edwards’ mess.
Arkansas 4-8 (1-7 SEC) - 5th worst / 50 years: It was a bad season for Arkansas, but mostly a “what if” year, losing 5 games by one possession. It ultimately ends up being a top 5 worst season in the last 50 years because the only Power 5 team they beat was Florida (lol).
Brigham Young 5-7 (2-7 Big 12) - 4th worst / 50 years: Growing pains moving up to the Power 5 were expected. Lack of depth killed BYU down the stretch as injuries piled up, going 0-5 in their last 5 games. If you take out the weird Covid year, Kalani Sitake is just 50-40 as BYU’s head coach. Another losing season will have his seat burning, depending on what coaches are available for a school as unique as BYU.
Florida 5-7 (3-5 SEC) - 4th worst / 50 years: I’ve been pounding the drum to give Sun Belt Billy more time, but this isn’t a good look. Florida looked unprepared to start the season against Utah, and finished by losing their last 5. It doesn’t help that they have arguably the toughest schedule in the country next year, drawing Miami (FL), UCF, and Florida State out of conference to go with an SEC schedule.
Kent State 1-11 (0-8 MAC) - 5th worst / 50 years: Oh Kent State, what is you doing baby…1-11 and it’s only your 5th worst season of the last 50 years? They were the worst team of 2023, so Kent State, get your act together. I like you guys, you’ve had some cool players and coaches.
Nevada 2-10 (2-6 MWC) - 2nd worst / 32 years: One of the transfers from the great Colorado exodus of 2023 was QB Brendon Lewis, who ended up as the starter for Nevada, throwing 2 TD 6 INT. That pretty much sums up the season, along with a Sickos Instant Classic 6-0 win over San Diego State around the middle of the season.
Southern Miss 3-9 (2-6 Sun Belt) - 5th worst / 50 years: Brett Favre is caught diverting welfare funds to Southern Miss athletics, and they go 3-9 the next year. Coincidence? I think not. He was keeping this program together!
Stanford 3-9 (2-7 Pac-12) - 4th worst / 50 years: This was a really bad Stanford team…but I’m not sure anyone cared because of that game against Colorado. A 29 point comeback win against Deion helps ease the pain of a 3-win season.