Blue line is where we are now. Red line is when the recession hits.

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Just draw your little red line somewhere else. Easy fix

who gave this guy the crayons?

Are these lines in the room with us right now?

Stocks go up: buy

Stocks go down: buy harder

After Covid the Fed now knows how to fix any recession: Just increase the money supply by 40%. Expect them to do so again during future "crises".

Uhh. If that’s called a recession, what was that blue line blowing 10,000% past that called? That’s a very subtle word compared to the move from the Covid period

I now have $89,000 a year in interest income that I didn’t have over the past 15 years. There’s $247 billion of interest being earned each year now that’s new for us high savers. It’s going to help keep us out of a recession. I’m spending like a rookie NBA player.

It’s funny cause 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP meant recession.… I’m sure they’ll also take this Sahm thingy just as seriously

Tomfoolery won't create equality. The market might fluctuate, but wealth will always concentrate.

Gonna jack off to the fact there’s a recession “looming” and your puts STILL won’t print. :4271::4276:

Except there’s historic lows in unemployment so it’ll take more velocity, but yeah. Shit will pop off after the fed decides to cut rates. Yippie!

they will make sure it happens after the election

I've been waiting since they tore open the treasury back in 2020 for this to happen so if you're just gonna give me continued blue balls, I'm going to have to ask you if you want fries with that. :4271:

Unemploymed people should just go back to work. Problem solved.

Bro no one here takes these types of posts seriously. We are definitely heading toward a recession with these job cuts and lowered guidance.

So rate cuts? Awesome

What do Stay at home moms have to do with recessions? And who is Claudia?

Or it just goes back down.

See how these lines work?

What?

Bullish they’ll cut rates and print fiat

What is supposed to happen in said recession

How many Inflationary Recessions has there been ?

It'll be like 2001 at worst, very small and brief.

didnt we have one in 2020 but it was pretty much over within months?

yeh, if things were this simple in recession prediction, we would all be bloody noble prize winning economists. and in addition, if its such a leading indicator, then the FED would be all over it and will take action to stop a recession from happening.

Everybody knows a recession is coming man  I fucking despise these posts.

The question is when, and the answer is not this year. Anything beyond that is speculatory but if you think it’s in 2024 you’re deluded.

Not to worry. The people who print money also get to redefine recession.

Under which recession definition?

What a wonderful graph! I'm going to print it and put it on my fridge so my whole family can enjoy it. Great work

Counterpoint, what if we don’t hit the red line?

keep an eye on unemployment

The problem is that the labor and unemployment numbers are heavily manipulated for political aims. If I'm not mistaken, every single non-farm payrolls print was revised lower in 2023 -- a 12-sigma probability and virtually impossible unless there's political pressure to present numbers favorably initially for financial media coverage and then to revise them lower when less people are looking. It's an election year as well, so it's only going to be exacerbated.

Since they are under reporting the unemployment rate I would argue that we are entering a recessionary period. With 1.2 Trillion in credit card debt and the 90 day CC delinquency on the rise, (Same as 2011) I also believe that consumer spending is going to decrease aggressively. I see very rough times ahead.

It clearly has a correlation to recession but in a lot of cases the start of the recession predates your 0.5% indicator, and the end happens well before it dips below 0.5%. The grey columns, are literally the times of recessions

🥱 get back to me when the yield curve is uninverted

Well I have OTM puts that expire in October, so it’ll prolly happen right after that.

I see what you’re saying. Not a horrible chart.

Finally, it’s been dumbed down enough for us simpletons - red line bad, the end. I’ll cancel my WSJ subscription immediately

There are like 50 bullet proof indicators that claim a recession is already here and somehow the economy is red hot.

This kinds of indicators were made under the assumption that the economy was a free , living organism that didn’t get meddled with. But what we have now is a Frankenstein Monster Economy that got the Central Banks hands deep in its bowels pumping the heart and making it move.

When they manage to avoid the collapse of the world economy by pumping that much money into it, they basically rendered the fundamentals obsolete. I mean, we shouldn’t have left the economy collapse due to the pandemic but we also shouldn’t have printed that much money because people somehow ended up taking way less care of their money then they were before the pandemic and started spending like crazy even though the panorama was very sketchy.

We can faulted the Central Banks and the governments for their irresponsible act of making that much money but the general public is also to blame for all this mess, we couldn’t keep our hands out of the cookie jar even when we didn’t knew if we had a job the next day.

Literally NONE of the other recession markers in the chart start in the red line level. None. Genius regards using charts that prove them wrong. A WSB classic.

🤣

Stay-at-home moms know what the fuck is going down.

Is this your heart beat before it flatlines

sez who ? Imothep ?

So the other recessions have been caused by over heating job market -> increasing prices -> lower competitiveness. This one isn’t. Graph doesn’t apply.

If i had a put for every recession indicator thats hit…

A wise man once told me

Nobody knows shit about fuck

Yes

The Booney Rule says that whenever a wsb degen says a recession is coming SPY will be green for 2 days

Is the 70% recession by May you speculated about in the room with us right now 

If we know that the recession is coming and it always got better shortly after that, why should we be worried and why should stick prices fall at all. The whole scenario should be priced in already.

Sooo couple more years ti go then

Just say you’re buying puts

Then the Fed will start cutting

Gotta real Nostradumbass here :4271:

Sir this is a Wendy’s.

So, we are not in a recession

Why do these charts always signal something catastrophic? Where are the charts that signal good news?

if I could have 1$ for every time a TA guy predicts a recession I would be a milionnare before the next recession

All in puts then, pussy 😂

Stocks only go up dude, read a book.

Good,buy the dip.

Is "recession" here in the room with us now, @op?

We already had a recession in 2022.

Bro unless Wendy’s goes out of business there’s plenty of behind the dumpster jobs out there.

Which stay-at-home-mom made this rule?

Thank heavens we had Biden to pull us out of the last one

[Image] 

Here are each of those thresholds on the DJIA chart up to dot com as the the right most box

start of box is when the fred chart breaks what I assume to be 0.50

end of box is when the unemployment rate is on the downtrend the boxes would miss even more growth if I took them all the way back down to 0.50 on the other side.

54 is the second box hilariously off as the market crushed

58 barely caught the bottom

61 lol crush

71 and 75 were accurate, but there was a lot of dumping before

82 okay fine I guess

90 missed the whole recovery

2001 is silly as it missed the start and the end

So, 2020 was the worst recession ever and the market was barely phased? Calls it is.

No way, it’s definitely different this time! 🤪 I’m super serial!

One piece? 🚀moon

This is the most regarded shit

I remember that the elites on Wall Street said this same shxt when S&P4700~ in May last year. How much is it now? lolll

Look guys, it's another gey bear :4271:

Wake up babe, new recession indicator just dropped

Idk they don't look that close yet. Calls

Lols seen this one before

The stay at home mom rule?

We’ve been in a recession since biden got in office bro

Bruh I know we ain't sitting here fucking discussing a Stay At Home Mom indicator.....

fuck you and fuck Fred too

Green line where I take a huge dump.

How is an EKG going to tell us about the recession

Why is red always the bad guy? You could’ve used purple

This is a chart crime. There is no support and resistance in metrics like this. You can’t apply your astrology to this kind of a chart.

move the red line higher fast!!!

Can you just draw the red line somewhere else so we never have a recession?

Bers never say die

Yah oh kay der