r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Technicals Tuesday - Jan 25, 2022

This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on technical analysis (TA), but if TA is not your thing then just ignore the theme and/or post your arguments against TA here and not in the current post.

Some helpful day to day links, including news:

Finviz for charts, fundamentals, and aggregated news on individual stocks
Bloomberg market news
StreetInsider news:
- Market Check - Possibly why the market is doing what it's doing including sudden spikes/dips
- Reuters aggregated - Global news

Technical analysis (TA) uses historical price movements, real time data, indicators based on math and/or statistics, and charts; all of which help measure the trajectory of a security. TA can also be used to interpret the actions of other market participants and predict their actions.

The main benefit to TA is that everything shows up in the price (commonly known as "priced in"): All news, investor sentiment, and changes to fundamentals are reflected in a security's price.

TA can be useful on any timeframe, both short and long term.

Intro to technical analysis by Stockcharts chartschool and their article on candlesticks

If you have questions, please see the following word cloud and click through for the wiki:

Indicator - Trade Signals - Lagging Indicator - Leading Indicator - Oversold - Overbought - Divergence - Whipsaw - Resistance - Support - Breakout/Breakdown - Alerts - Trend line - Market Participants - Moving average - RSI - VWAP - MACD - ATR - Bollinger Bands - Ichimoku clouds - Methods - Trend Following - Fading - Channels - Patterns - Pivots

See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

in stocksby AutoModerator

73

90%

2.4y

0

2.4y

Do people know what the outcome of the federal reserve meeting will be? Futures are very green.

2

2.4y

Yes. JPow will get on stage, apologise for causing inflation and will start crying. At the end of his conference he will get on a helicopter and fly away never to be seen again. Grandma Yellen will take over and like a good grandma that she is she will send out everyone stimmies for being good boys and girls. Economy will boom thereafter.

CorruptasF---Media

1

2.4y

Yes. Jerome is going to say that if the market continues to crater the Fed will have to respond with fewer rate hikes.

2

2.4y

What are the best etf non stock that you are using? I was buying some tech stocks in that sell of but I want some diversification. Good luck for today

2

2.4y

I am still shocked that Netflix got pushed all the way back to 2018 levels

5

2.4y

I think it will rebound eventually. I am from Portugal and I fell that are so many people that don’t subscribe any streaming plataforms but it will in the future

Redditing-Dutchman

2

2.4y

Yeah but will they subscribe to netflix or HBO, Paramount, Disney+, AppleTV, Hulu, Amazon Prime, Peacock, Sling TV, etc etc. Thats why netflix’s future is more uncertain than before.

1

2.4y

That’s true, and possible others. But we will never know the future and we don’t have to be correct about it every time. It’s a game of probabilities, risk and management. And the probability that you will make money in that type of valuation stock it’s larger than before. I don’t have Netflix stock yet

2

2.4y

happy cake day

wessidedabesside

6

2.4y

my 3k portfolio went to 15k feb 2021, and has been downhill since. now its an 8k portfolio looks like it wants to head back down to 3-4k. oh well maybe next lifetime i'll get it right.

3

2.4y

I was also excited to reach $40k in Nov2021 but now I’m back at $30k

-7

2.4y

I'm gonna sell out tomorrow, I can't take it anymore.

6

2.4y

I hope you're joking. Why on earth would you sell at this point?! Honestly...

User deleted comment

2.4y

3

2.4y

Those people just need to set up some dollar cost averaging into an index fund and never look at their portfolio. The "buy high, sell low" strategy isn't going to help anyone get to retirement

1

2.4y

Are you retiring soon?

-4

2.4y

I'll rebuy in a month.

3

2.4y

Probably at ATH

User deleted comment

2.4y

3

2.4y

don't do options if you're new to stocks.

3

2.4y

Pro tip: if you are new to stocks, stay away from options! Even if you're experienced with stocks, options are not for most people..

2

2.4y

No, after you sell the option you also sell away the rights that come with it.

PrisonChickenWing

-5

2.4y

My total portfolio of initially 3k is now down almost 33% because of NIO and the game stock. I wish it would squeeze like we kept being told it will. Even if it doesn't then I think it will go back over 200 because so many ppl are in it

7

2.4y

You got scammed by other game stock bag holders. There is no squeeze coming.

PrisonChickenWing

2

2.4y

Damn feelsbadman. I guess I'll just leave it in there as a reminder of what they call "bandwagon bias"

6

2.4y

Praying for a short squeeze is like going to Vegas and praying you'll hit a jackpot at the lottery.

This isn't a good reason to buy a stock, or even stay in a stock.

PrisonChickenWing

-1

2.4y

But it's just hard to believe this many people believe in it if it's never gonna shoot up again. You know how many ppls lives would be ruined? They've put in everything. Luckily for me that's a sucky amount to lose but not life changing at all

6

2.4y

Because it was a meme. People did it because they wanted to be part of a viral trend that was in the news. Unfortunately people did not realize what they were getting themselves into and are facing the consequences.

GameStop is in a dying industry...there's a reason why so many people shorted it to begin with. They'll need to totally reinvent the company to survive and so far they've come up with zero plan to do that.

2

2.4y

While much of what you say is right, they have come up with a plan by switching to e-commerce and bringing in Ryan Cohen.

No position here but I think people are a little harsh on the company.

1

2.4y

What has Ryan Cohen done? Everyone is worshiping Cohen as if he's the best executive in the world (although he's just a chair person, not even involved in day to day operations).

As far as I know, they haven't even announced any real plans. Everyone just downloads their games nowadays, so what exactly do you mean by "e commerce"? Amazon is e commerce.. they're not going to try to re create Amazon though. it'a all been speculation thus far

1

2.4y

I don't know the details but the general idea didn't seem too far-fetched to me. Obviously the people obsessing over the company are taking it a little too far.

User deleted comment

2.4y

-3

2.4y

Congrats to Kwesi Adolfo Mensah- one of us is gonna be a GM! Former stock and commodities trader is likely going to lead the Vikings

16

2.4y

A lot of people here don’t know how to value growth and how that affects ERs. It’s simple. A growth company will have a seemingly high P/E because the market is forward looking and uses Forward P/E. In short, the company has to grow into its valuation. If it reports good earnings but bad guidance (ie nflx), then that suggests its growth is slowing and it doesn’t deserve such a high forward P/E. This means a sell off will happen until the new forward P/E reflects their new growth.

Guidance is the number #1 thing for any high P/E growth stock. They need to be able to justify it and it matters a lot more than earnings numbers which are not forward looking.

2

2.4y

Timely example: MSFT. Algos tanked MSFT after hours when their earnings report came out, but as soon as they shares their guidance during the earnings call, the stock rebounded and ended positive AH

1

2.4y

Who shared the guidance? And whats an earnings call? Sorry, new here

2

2.4y

No problem at all, this is the place to ask questions.

Companies give reports on a quarterly basis, where they share all their financials, show how much money they've made, etc. This is an earnings report. Along with the earnings report they also have an earnings call, which is a conference call where the CEO and typically the CFO talk through their earnings report and provide additional context. Reporters and analysts attend the conference call and ask questions to try to get more info to predict how the company will do.

Typically at the end of the earnings call, the CEO/CFO will share how they think they'll do next quarter / year...this is referred to as "guidance".

Guidance is super important because a stock is all about predicting how a company will do in the future.

3

2.4y

Yep, exactly. Because MSFT seems so safe (for a tech stock), I think people forget that a lot of its valuation is still based on growth opportunities. Guidance therefore is very important.

2

2.4y

I don’t know if this is the right sub to ask(I’ve tried to Google but maybe I’m bad at it) but in the history of hedge fund managers, who are the youngest ones ever?

1

2.4y

Off the top of my head Martin Shkreli started young and it looks like he founded his first one at 23. There are probably a bunch out there who started really young with small amounts of money mainly from personal connections. But for people starting one really young it's not really about merits.

1

2.4y

maybe those guys at r/financialcareers will know

13

2.4y

Only 1300 comments today. I guess the bottom is in.

AP9384629344432

5

2.4y

Are you going to buy back your VTI? Seems like a good time to get back in

-3

2.4y

Tomorrow and Friday are going to be fucking bloodbaths, aren’t they?

2

2.4y

Possibly, but I personally doubt it. I think Powell will communicate what's expected...I think he's learned to avoid surprises whenever possible.

5

2.4y

Nobody fucking knows

13

2.4y

Thursday no exist?

7

2.4y

Ah fuck.

This has been a long week. I wish it didn’t.

lessfrictionless

2

2.4y

What time can we expect the Fed to drop its news and feel the reaction from it?

4

2.4y

2pm I think - we should be good for our sell off at 3pm though if it doesnt run long. Powel knows we have a schedule now we needs to keep.

Temporary_Lab_9999

18

2.4y

I was surprised too when saw all this panic here after MSFT earnings release.

I work in big tech for the past 10 years and whenever earning are released, unless it is something extreme, it is almost a coin toss if it is going to go up or down. Doesn't matter if we beat the earning or not or the guidance.

And then CNBC just fits their narrative into whatever the outcome they see with "poor guidance", "investors were not impressed" and other b/s

1

2.4y

It's not really random, with these companies trading at such high valuations they really have to do an insane job in order to justify them. I don't think people understand the premium that these companies trade at or what it depends on.

0

2.4y

Anyone shorting CAT and HD on slowing housing markets in China and US?

4

2.4y

I’m ruined

6

2.4y

Don't buy puts with money you can't afford to lose. It's a bit of a gamble. Look at any index over the past 50+ years. The odds are stacked against you.

5

2.4y

What happened?

13

2.4y

I have been buying puts all week, and the market keeps finding a way to end green on the stocks I picked haha I’m down like 40%

3

2.4y

dude you commented like a week ago on r/wsb asking about tips for new investors and then kept asking them to predict the market. I highly recommend walking away from stocks unless you want to feel more pain, this is not a market that will reward you for relying on pure luck

4

2.4y

You're nuts for option trading in this market

1

2.4y

Dang, that implied volatility sucks. options are probably expensive right now.

4

2.4y

Omg Don’t buy puts tomorrow!

6

2.4y

When do we buy visa!?

21

2.4y

If reddit is anything to go off of. You buy in silence and then gloat that you bought on a green day.

2

2.4y

This morning before AXP earnings, next best time is tomorrow prob

-6

2.4y

Am I the only energy bull on this board?

2

2.4y

I’m with you. Like 75% of my portfolio is call options on bp, su, ovv, and cve.

2

2.4y

I hope you’re not married, because if you are, you won’t be for much longer.

3

2.4y

We’re seeing crude draws in January and nearing pre pandemic oil usage when a lot of countries are shutdown. Opec can’t even meet their quotas while Russia is threatening to invade the Ukraine. Oil companies are giving back more than ever to shareholders and limiting spending on production. Canadian oil companies free cash flow at 65 dollar oil can buy back all shares with cash within 4 years. Oil is one of the very few parts of the market not overvalued.

2

2.4y

I am totally with you on the reasoning. That’s actually a pretty good play I think, but…

75% of your portfolio in oil sector call options?!

Holy shit dude. To each their own, but that has some real potential for some Best of WSB Loss Porn.

Are you at least hedged with the other 25%?

2

2.4y

Well I’m up 200-700% on almost all my options. They’re pretty deep in the money now with a lot of time left. I’ve sold some took some profits and bought etfs so I’m not a total degenerate. Probably take more off the table after earnings.

2

2.4y

Take profits dude.

UkraineWithoutTheBot

0

2.4y

It's 'Ukraine' and not 'the Ukraine'

[Merriam-Webster] [BBC Styleguide] [Reuters Styleguide]

^{Beep boop I’m a bot}

10

2.4y

This is you literally 6 days ago

I dont care if every index is up 2% tomorrow.. I DONT TRUST IT

selling selling selling

-1

2.4y

Me saying to sell is not emotional, this market is going through a correction. People freaking out daily is the issue

3

2.4y

Have been in MRO under $10 since last year, it doubled in a year and I also made some side money selling cover calls, can't complain.

2

2.4y

MRO is my favorite. Well done. Such a clean balance sheet

1

2.4y

OKE makes 15% of my non roth portfolio. Been awesome

7

2.4y

This week has me dizzy. I promised myself I wouldn’t look again today after watching MSFT plummet AH, but wow.

16

2.4y

let's go MSFT reversal! Hope Powell doesn't fuck it up tomorrow

7

2.4y

I love being on reddit bc the AH trading for Microsoft is the perfect representation of how fucking emotional and volatile you all get for no reason.

0

2.4y

For no reason lol. That’s because average houses are now half a million with 10k taxes a year and it’s not possible to earn enough to pay for all of that unless you make 3x the average salary here. So some of us are under pressure to earn money by investing

3

2.4y

That’s because average houses are now half a million with 10k taxes a year

lol, just wait til you hit Canadian levels. 700k for a shitbox townhouse in a medium sized city.

DontStonkBelieving

2

2.4y

London checking in, wait until you have to pay 300k for an apartment the size of a broom closet

4

2.4y

But hey at least you're giving a place for communist billionaires to hide their cash

1

2.4y

Makes sense

caesar____augustus

23

2.4y

how fucking emotional and volatile you all get for no reason.

"KEEP SELLING, THIS IS A FAKEOUT BULL TRAP."

-You, being emotional yesterday

4

2.4y

Loooool

-14

2.4y

That's not emotional, that's using cap letters.

"Keep selling, this is a takeout bull trap."

6

2.4y

Oh I hope it’s pizza. I could go for some pepperoni

13

2.4y

Institutional dumped MSFT 6% at close to pump it 9% an hour later.

It's not Reddit posters that are volatile...

Naive_Bodybuilder145

2

2.4y

There’s a whole post here and people posting talking about selling freaking out here and in that thread. On good earnings before guidance came out. On Microsoft. I bought in the 270s twice.

1

2.4y

There was merit to them dropping.

They beat by a smaller margin and Y/Y growth with market cap up 50% Y/Y.

That's why AAPL used to go down after earnings. They beat by 5-10% while market cap being up 25%-50%.

2

2.4y

Do you not find any irony in this post at all? Like claiming the market is fine in the largest January drop since 08. You know there’s a fed announcement tomorrow right?

4

2.4y

the market is fine. I'm not too overtly invested in the NASDAQ so I've been beating two indexes besides the DOW. If you weren't diversified that's on you.

0

2.4y

I love the Dow. also the nasdaq drop felt much worse in 2018. Amazon dropped 33 percent over four months. That is much more painful that these five percent dips in one day. I’d rather rip the bandaid off quickly

1

2.4y

I was short for a while and unloaded Friday. I’m just concerned that you’re downplaying the absolute massacre tomorrow will be. But hey you seem to know better. Oh look futures turning red.

1

2.4y

Futures don’t mean anything

2

2.4y

"These futures are ridiculous LMAO"

bro stop being so emotional.

Tryandtryagain123

4

2.4y

Msft is at 295… think it will crack 300 silly billy?

-8

2.4y

I've seen this story too many times. It will be up AH and down 2-3% tomorrow unless Powell says the perfect things

Tryandtryagain123

6

2.4y

I don’t think you know what you are talking about

-7

2.4y

This won't be up tomorrow. Try again.

DestinationMarss

13

2.4y

Maybe I’m dumb but MSFT is literally 50% of my profile haha.

2

2.4y

im like 1/3 msft voo aapl lol

-2

2.4y

Well, MSFT is one of those companies that's so large and diversified that they're practically an ETF.

That said unless you have a small amount of money invested I'd still diversify into other stocks.

2

2.4y

Ok but they can still drop and be overvalued. Remember it’s market sentiment and growth that keeps the market ok with a PE of 35. But market sentiment can flip quickly and all of a sudden they can be printing “fears of Microsoft stagnating” and it drops a bunch. Have seen sentiment switch quickly on other stocks

5

2.4y

I feel like that should only be the case if you are a Microsoft employee and count future stock awards as part of your portfolio.

Otherwise it feels like a risky move.

4

2.4y

Maybe a bit risky, but not dumb.

-8

2.4y

this is why I dont start trading till the last hour of the day

3

2.4y

How did that go for you Monday ?

-3

2.4y

You mean YTD? It's been going pretty well thanks for asking :)

FalconsBlewA283Lead

4

2.4y

Lmao the swings lately are hilarious to watch

1

2.4y

Not really. Those algo's are fucking the little guy all the time.

4

2.4y

not if the little guy just holds

6

2.4y

i told you so about msft earnings bears, i warned you.

User deleted comment

2.4y

1

2.4y

a lot less then i lost on all my other positions LOL

6

2.4y

AH MSFT will be up, but by tomorrow it will be down 2-3%. No doubt.

1

2.4y

Waaa waaa waaaaa

9

2.4y

MSFT beats earnings

Retail: holy cow MSFT is falling, better sell it before it falls to $250. Better yet, sell everything I have.

Institutional scoop up everything at $275

30 minutes later

MSFT good guidance

Stock raise to $300, institutions laugh on way home

Retail: ---_____----

Bet the same thing will happen to GOOGL and AAPL too.

3

2.4y

Since I am in this $APPL always falls at earning report…

4

2.4y

Retail is not pumping this volume AH.

MSFT going down 6% then pumping 9% right after is a bit odd.

User deleted comment

2.4y

11

2.4y

Yea. It kinda funny people on reddit think retail has the power to take 50B or more market cap off stocks in the span of an hour. That is big money selling/buying

3

2.4y

So many people think retail move the market.

We just ride the waves where it takes us.

12

2.4y

I don't understand why ordinary people try to overplay institutions. Just hold and chill.

2

2.4y

at Market close - 250 by EOW

Now - 270 was a great dip.

Sentiment changes so quickly, and whatever happens will be considered obvious all along.

2

2.4y

So many people deleted their comments.

4

2.4y

You can try to play off their big moves though. Like little suckerfish swimming under the whale's belly.

-1

2.4y

Can sell my calls after 4:30 est. good for me 😂

10

2.4y

Volatile after hours. Microsoft already recovered and futures are green already

6

2.4y

Strong post market rally after good earnings from Microsoft, we can expect another one of Tesla post good earnings as well. Stocks will most likely fall pre FOMC meeting but I would expect a relief rally after that if no more surprise is caused. We can expect semiconductor rally in Feb with AMD and Meta posting their earnings

29

2.4y

all of the MSFT doomsayers are rushing to delete their comments now.

CoffeeAndDachshunds

3

2.4y

I assumed it'd fall more, but I'm happy for the people that dove in already. I still think things will drop, but I'm happy if they don't.

Anytime add in the next year or two will lower my cost per share average so no rush from me.

4

2.4y

Lol it's crazy, where are the "I told you so"

User deleted comment

2.4y

2

2.4y

I got 2 shares at 273 when i couldve bought 20, got scared shitless, fking algos.

30

2.4y

Let this thread teach you stupid fucks to stop overreacting to every little thing

User deleted comment

2.4y

AP9384629344432

9

2.4y

No it's all jersday

6

2.4y

How dare you.

6

2.4y

Sir this is Reddit

2

2.4y

I thought this is Wendy's, can I have double bacon cheeseburger, large please.

8

2.4y

Honestly wouldn't be surprised if it reverses again based on what I've seen lately

5

2.4y

Nah good ER solid guidance weathered the storm for MS. Gonna be strong even if market falls and money looks for solid safe mega cap investment. This ER lasts for another 3 months lol

10

2.4y

lmao WHO BOUGHT THAT DIP?

7

2.4y

I saw $272 and I immediately bought without thinking.

5

2.4y

275 BABY!

2

2.4y

MSFT coming back to life while guidance is given!

9

2.4y

Lmao this market is a joke, massive selloff on beat ER, just because it wasnt time for guidance yet? No i cant buy this bs.

hairychinesekid0

4

2.4y

The whole thing stinks. But hey ho, not for us proles to say is it.

2

2.4y

Not the first time I've seen that happen.

It's dumb, but it is what it is.

Guess Microsoft is finishing basically unchanged tomorrow like it did during the July FOMC.

5

2.4y

Yeah it’s fucking stupid.

6

2.4y

Is msft reversing? Or is my screen glitching

Novel-Comparison-364

5

2.4y

Dammit it is

5

2.4y

Guidance is pretty solid.

3

2.4y

F me for buying at 287 before market close but w/e long term prob means nothing

DestinationMarss

2

2.4y

Same, it 10 at 286

5

2.4y

Gratz who bought that 270s dip...

So back to "normal" red day. Wait for Fed.

6

2.4y

MSFT is coming back a bit. The guidance around Azure is solid. This is a money printer for the company. Honestly, most of the web runs on Azure of AWS.

2

2.4y

I can see a future where AWS loses ground to cheaper alternatives and azure holds strong because it's a more coherent ecosystem that companies get stuck in, much as they did windows.

1

2.4y

It does fit well especially if you’re doing the c# angular stack.

Possibly one day for AWS, but still pretty sticky. I’m mark the day when Netflix moves to a different provider.

6

2.4y

Is guidance out on msft. I think so.

2

2.4y

Yep.

Cloud is continuing to grow. Expecting better margins. Sounds like the worst news is supply chain issues for consoles.

1

2.4y

Decent. Onto the next mountain. Jeromes magic minutes.

6

2.4y

Bought some MSFT at 275 AH. Let's hope tomorrow's a green day.

stop-spending-money

5

2.4y

Congratulations because it’s at 292 now

6

2.4y

If I actually timed the dip perfectly that's fucking hilarious. I never do that.

NnortheExperience

5

2.4y

First time I'm fully negative on MSFT. Hurts buuuuuut this is my chance to DCA!!

2

2.4y

Earnings were solid. Azure is a money printer. At some point Gamepass will be profitable. MSFT is really well positioned for the future.

-6

2.4y

I hope yall are buying the dip. The market needs bagholders.

5

2.4y

I heard the same thing in March 2020. I'll just keep buying on schedule.

1

2.4y

This time is different

8

2.4y

When the EV bubble pops all hell is gonna break lose. As much as Tesla bulls made fortune the last few years, now I think Tesla bears have a chance to do the same