Someone please give me a reason to be excited. I'm not. Going from Schedule 1 to Schedule 3 will take months. Even afterwards, weed will still be illegal federally so every grower will have to sell in the state where the weed was grown since it can’t cross state lines. All states that get legalization on the ballot have to bake in excessively high taxes in order to convince people who are scared of weed that it is a good idea. This will make the black market continue to be highly profitable, as it is in currently legal states. It is very easy for the hobby grower to produce more than an individual will ever use in a year (even growing just the legal # of plants). For that reason I never have to buy weed because my friends give it to me for free. So much that I am also giving it away. Look at Canada and they have the same black market issues preventing weed stocks from taking off. They have hobby growers supplying themselves and their friends. Please convince me otherwise and I will invest, but I don’t see weed becoming the economic powerhouse it was predicted to be. Ever. Sure, medical research on weed can begin once it is rescheduled. But who needs big pharma weed products when you can just take an edible?
But once that happens it’s too late. There will be signs that are pointing towards federal legalization. Everyone will see them and it will get priced in. You have to be ahead of the cirve
Exactly. The industry both boomed and busted 100x in Canada during and after legalization, and the US market is 10x bigger.
And nowadays what's the situation in Canada?
I see, that's not really good then. Thanks for the detailed answer mate
I’m currently buying 60mg gummies from MARS in California and they recently started carrying 120 mg!
I doubt the US would end up much different. Laws are highly restrictive, but not enforced. So the ability for legal investors to profit is going to be quite limited.
I don't have much to add other than, anyone telling you 10mg isn't enough to feel anything is an addict. I used to smoke weed or take an edible every day and 10mg was plenty.
This is what everyone in /r/Weedstocks was saying 5 years ago.
Agreed. But 95% of retail traders don’t have the capital to park it on a “maybe” moonshot.
Don't hold your breath on federal legalization, they make about 30% no write offs right now off of cannabis, if they legalized, they would likely take half of that. Form 280e has the cannabis industry paying 70% effective tax rate in som instances, with the cannabis industry paying 40%+ more than the next closest, with the cost of a regulatory arm stripping 70% of it, making it less profitable than most legal industries, without again, maintaining those massive taxes.
280e goes away with rescheduling which will likely happen this year.
Not until it’s federally legal.
TBH, I think unless you have a 'moat' of some kind by the time it becomes legal, like Uber did when gig working / non taxi transportation finally became widespread accepted, then it's a race to the bottom.
In areas where competition exists the price of weed has steadily been on the decline for years and that's with restricted competition. If they make it federally legal and increase the number of dispensaries, growers, etc. it's just bound to be a race to see who can price the most competitively to get business
Legal weed has probably been one of the few things in my life that has gotten cheaper in recent years
In my city it’s price fixed, pretty fucking weird. State did a lotto system aka only X allowed per city/grow ops per county and the dispensaries sell eachother’s weed. I thought it would be a race to the bottom, but I see prices rise..think they’ve peaked unless more tax..maybe like you said, when it’s federally legal and no stupid rules in place..race to the bottom
I'm in WA which has some of the cheapest cannabis. A lot of producer/processors raced to the bottom and many went out of business in the last year or two. Stores generally sell at 3-4x what they pay the producer/processor which sets the prices across the state. A lot of stores try to not drop prices too much lower than their neighbors.
There are a few exceptions like the Native owned stores which there are many in WA. They can get around state compliance and they don't pay the huge taxes so they can undercut everyone. Like some tribal stores we do business with grow and test their own cannabis and sell their own store brand for less than half of most other stores.
The recent string of cannabis robberies doesn't help this either. Many producer/processors/retailers get robbed multiple times a month to where they may go under. The tribal stores often have tribal police around the store and it's very unlikely for them to get robbed. We had multiple growers around us get robbed and the police told us we were very likely to get robbed soon and there was nothing they could do.
We paid for armed security to watch the area at night which is a huge expense. We can't legally have armed security inside unlike these tribal shops. One of the biggest indoor grows in the state which is near us which does tens of millions in sales annually and even has stocks just got robbed and totally cleaned out this week.
It's like they want these business to fail. I know in my area (sacramento), I've been told they don't accept cash. Only cc transaction. But I'm not sure if armed guards can be in the shop or not.
What was Uber’s moat? Subsidized rides?
Well the subsidized rides were to facilitate gaining market share which was their true 'moat'. Uber was operating in grey areas or in some instances just plain illegally but once everything became kosher, no one could really challenge them because they were already there and known. Lyft has been the closest competitor but even then Uber's market share is still 3x lyft's
So the most is crime lol
Theres a good quote from Margin Call about that.... "There are three ways to make a living in this business. Be first, be smarter, or cheat"
Uber was first(ish) and cheated.
Hmmm.... Why are you talking about MJ investing, but talking about retail sellers like that's all there is?
The investment opportunities are in the growing supplies and equipment, not individual store fronts or franchises.
And as far a "floor," have you ever heard of a thing called cigarettes? Just curious, because you seem to think that companies creating the same thing will inevitably sell their products for pennies. I'm sure I just read your post wrong...
The real issue is that at the end of the day it’s a regulated agricultural business. And it will always be less popular than alcohol (especially on a $/month basis). So legalizing is great and sane, and it can be overall a good business it well never rival IP driven tech stocks and so on.
It looks like you shared an AMP link. These should load faster, but AMP is controversial because of concerns over privacy and the Open Web .
Maybe check out the canonical page instead: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/23/daily-marijuana-use-surpasses-alcohol-consumption-new-study-finds.html
I'm a bot | Why & About | Summon: u/AmputatorBot
Clearly not my experience, but I think it’s still true on $/day by a wide margin.
That was specifically based on people who use either substance daily. The majority of alcohol and weed users do not partake daily and so aren't factored into this study. Overall, alcohol is still a way bigger seller, although cannabis will likely surpass it once it's removed as schedule I drug federally.
Cannabis companies are wildly undervalued at current values. I don’t see a way that the strong ones’ stock prices don’t increase. With that being said, timing is unknown. Additionally, you need to be very careful about which companies you invest in because there are some that have set themselves up for success with upcoming catalysts (i.e. new states coming online for adult use) and there are some who are burning cash. Not all cannabis companies will do well but some most likely will. Still a very speculative investment with very high risk/high reward ratios.
What do you think are better investments of similar caliber? Meaning, what are some sectors you think have the opportunity to 4-5x within the next 2 years?
Agreed, and many of those companies will either fail or falter before that catalyst happens.
Honestly, I think the market is overvalued at the moment for the most part. I’m not investing anything in the market besides what my employer matches at the moment. All my extra money is going into other investments. Some of which have been far out, performing my 401(k), granted on a smaller scale balance.
I feel that SPY will outperform the Weed ETF’s like MSOS over the next few years but if you’re looking for high risk moonshots I also think space sector stocks have a much higher profit potential than the weed sector
What’re some tickers I could research?
The safest is RKLB. Their launch business is the lowest margin but is picking up steady government contracts. The new Neutron rocket they’re developing should be launching early next year.
Their larger margins are in their space systems which is a developing business.
Lesser potential but solid growth is RDW which provides components and hardware for other space companies including NASA. They’ve been showing steady growth over the past few years.
If you want more risk but higher potential ASTS has started rising in price since their last earnings due to AT&T solidifying their partnership for direct satellite to phone service. The first set of production satellites launch this summer.
It will take a few years to get up to full constellation capacity but it has the potential to easily 20x in price from here.
And big pharma is going to bribe officials to ensure it never becomes legal, or that the Capitol required to sell legal marijauna drives out big pharmas competition so they can monopolize it.
Big tobacco says hello. They 100% will jump in and take over
I'm sure they will. Why sell tobacco at $10 a pack when you can sell weed at $50 a pack.
I can grow some basic tobacco, but I can't grow and make a Marlboro. I can grow marijuana that isn't close to high grade medical marijuana, but it is every bit good enough for me and it's free. Tough to beat that with a business.
I can brew beer if I want but beer companies make tons of money because those doing it home are a small percentage and people buy it when out. If it is legalized nationwide you will see a lot of places to go to where you can smoke and it won’t be your home grown plant sold there. The states where it is currently legal, the businesses selling it make plenty of money.
I can and have made home brew beer. It's ok at best. I can't make a Heineken or a Budweiser. My dad used to make his own corn whiskey. He never came anywhere close to Jack Daniels. He once gave a bottle to one of his farm hands. Next day he asked him how he liked it. To quote the guy: "If it had been any better, you wouldn't have given it to me, and if it had been any worse, I couldn't have drunk it." Lmao. I can grow plenty good enough weed that I never need to buy it.
Congrats. Plenty of people still buy weed in legal states that your argument doesn’t hold up. You’re just stating your own personal case. That’s great for you. It doesn’t show that businesses in that realm aren’t going to be successful. There are plenty that already are.
The legal vendors will never be able to overcome the black market vendors. Just as New York is experiencing right now. California has more black market production than legal production. It's much cheaper and it's good enough to flourish on the street market, just as it always has. You fail to see that my personal experience is analogous to what's happening now and what will continue to happen. Even people silly enough to pay to live in 800 square foot apartments will always buy it - somewhere.
Not sure about that… when I researched it, apparently there isn’t a ton of overlap in how each are farmed.
That said, $MO (Altria aka Phillip-Morris) is a good stock pick.
My $GLASF shares have been doing great for the weed sector. I think $MSOS might just be a pyramid scheme.
$MO is excellent
There doesn’t need to be overlap in how it’s farmed. They can buy out MJ farms and operations and then use those resources to expand.
Altria tried that, and it cost a ton and didn’t pan out. I’m not holding my breath, but I’m enjoying my dividends.
If it’s a buy out, there’s no reason why the buyer couldn’t be from literally any other industry. The connection to tobacco seems tenuous at best.
The problem for big pharma is that people can just sell it illegally right now and undercut them. If anything, the status quo is the worst of both worlds for pharma.
Without legalization there are millions of boomers suckling on what ever drugs big pharma is pushing, my dad is 73 and takes like 20 pills at a time 3 times a day. Lots of the things he takes could be replaced with cannabis or cbd, but he doesn't want to be seen as a pothead. Its been pounded into these people's heads for decades that drugs are bad (nixon started the war on drugs in 1971), and they aren't just going to change their mind. These are the same people who would benefit the most from legalization and mass availability of actual scientifically grown strains to fight specific medical issues. Big pharma isn't hurting from illegal pot when they sell drugs that are $1000 a month covered by medicare.
This feels true. But you'll have to time it right. And the echo chamber always says "Don't try to time the market". It isn't wrong and in this case, it makes me wonder. Do you think the avg investor should wait for a low and buy-in with side money or ignore it and keep going with what we already have planned otherwise? I'm not sure that the industry will rocketship like some would hope. But I definitely think there will be some upward momentum in specific areas once the Fed legalizes it. Banks and REITs for greenhouses? /s. Nah, i honestly have no clue. Such a blackbox at this point
Often times the reason something skyrockets is because it has unrealized potential. This already has massive potential that everyone knows, but it’s literally waiting on one thing.
Personally, I’m not touching it anytime soon. Even if it gets federally legalized, be ready for a bunch of states to throw in laws or restrictions to appease their small minded constituents = volatility.
The best question I think any investor should ask themselves… If I’m only going to get 9% per year continually… What’s the best move I make?
The answer: lower your expenses, and increase your income so you can invest more. Stop chasing moonshots, every time you lose, you have to win twice.
Until you can have interstate commerce in marijuana, it’ll never take off
Debatable. Are we talking about companies taking off or the stock price?
If you’re speaking on companies then you’d be surprised to know that the top US cannabis companies are already killing it without interstate commerce. As more states go rec/med those numbers will just get better. Not to mention the immediate boost to the bottom line now that MJ is getting rescheduled to 3. This dramatically reduces tax liabilities and adds 100’s of millions to their business.
The stocks are a different story. You can only buy Canadian names that have no plant selling exposure to the US listed on the NYSE. However, fidelity and Schwab offer OTC market buys of the American MJ names that the etf MSOS holds. Names like Greenthumb (best of the bunch), trulieve, Verano, Curaleaf, Cresco Labs to name a few. This is the problem. There just isn’t enough access for people to buy being on OTC and not supported by most brokers. So with the low volume exchange comes the opportunity to aggressively manipulate stock prices by market makers and hedgies. These stocks desperately need uplisting to the big exchanges.
There is hope tho, schedule 3 was just confirmed by the White House and Biden. Something that’s been in the works for over a year. Many hope that this will lead to SAFE banking, and uplisting. This could be just the start of the sector revaluing process. But I can’t stress enough how important uplisting is.
This all aside, over the past year MSOS AND their underlyings have performed quite well. And many believe we have bottomed.
Long story short, some great companies with good growth potential but being held back by OTC market.
The flip side is that once interstate commerce is legalized, the current players will see a large influx of competition.
The current players probably Consolidate the whole industry before legalization and interstate commerce.
Companies already have strategies set up for This long term eventuality.
The well capitalized and bigger companies will win just like in any other commoditized/CPG industry like tobacco.
Tobacco is a crop too right? Those companies make a ton of money, there is only a few of them, and they own the whole market
Competition = growth.
In the overall industry? Yes.
In your Cannabis ETF? Not necessarily.
And even then all the tobacco companies will start switching to marijuana and drive down the price for the little guys. Calls on MO.
A few sentiments: I invested in $APHA (Aphria, Inc.), throughout the pandemic after doing detailed research on many many companies. I liked their leadership, their funding, their strategy and the fact they had been waiting on a lottery pick for a retail partnership. Their big news was opening a new grow op over 3x bigger than their last.
My gains were realized when the share price went from $4 to $32.
Unfortunately, Tilray bought them after and they practically went under.
But it was a fantastic investment and of course I sold.
I think this type of research and individual picks are highly underrated. That being said, for the traditional big money style of investing a diverse ETF of weed in general… I think your sentiment is more accurate.
Sadly, I think the most crucial part of legalization is understanding how private prisons invest in politicians. They have a huge grip on political success through campaign donations, which to their best interest, more and more illegal activity. Disgusting. Unethical.
So keep that in mind. I don’t think investing in weed stocks will get quite the stimulus it did when Biden was first elected, but that’s just an assumption. I’m picking other industries at the moment. But there are some companies expanding rapidly despite the overall bad news.
I did the exact same thing with APHA during covid. I averaged down in the $1-3 range and ended up getting out with some positions at 2000-3000% (500% gain overall).
Started buying GTI and Cresco too early and got stuck in some shitty positions for a couple years.
My accounts hit ATH on the last two pumps (8-9x the value I had invested at covid lows). Took some losses on other shit along the way for tax purposes, but I'm still waiting for uplisting to sell everything and take a vacation.
Been doing this for 7 years now lol
I wish I had been investing since then! To be honest I got into $GME at $14 with a nominal amount, bought in with $6k call option right before the big rise. It turned into $100k overnight and the sell button was frozen on Robinhood. My lotto ticket burned before my eyes. Since then I’ve basically passively invested in the S&P which has still been decent but I’ve been so turned off from enjoying it.
Just finally starting to get back into it, but I see my time out of the research as a waste. Good luck this year. It’s bound to be nutty with politics and the energy trends via conflicts.
I think it will as a whole, but on an individual level it will be a crapshoot. However I agree it needs a wider legal push to go anywhere and unless Biden rolls it out as some election point I expect it’ll languish further.
I see little reason to view weed differently than alcohol. Long term, its going to be a low margin industry, with lots of industry dominated by big players.
That is bad for the current small players who rely on regulations keeping big companies out.
But good for big players.
All I can tell u when I was 16 all my friends thought about how insane government policies and the stigma pot had then would be long gone by the time we would be 60. Now I still hear the same shit and stereotypes. Nothing is ever through our government going to change remotely as quick as it should. That doesn’t mean give up or give in it’s just the same bullshit I witnessed 50 years ago.
When I was sixteen in the 90s, here in California, never could I imagine someday I could place an online order for any strain in any form factor and have it delivered to your door in less than an hour. The funny thing is the price has relatively stayed at $50 an 1/8th
I own 2,300 shares of MSOS and plan to just hold for years. It will become federally legalized at some point and then larger institutions can finally start getting into the industry as well.
The margins are too low and there are too much taxes like alcohol.
I worked in the cannabis industry for years. The taxes are insane, I'd bet that 99% of MSO's aren't even profitable due to taxes.
So many people in my circle grow way more than they can smoke. It is really fun to grow . It ends up being a parting gift when people come over., and vice versa.
That's my experience too. And the quality is better than dispensaries.
At this point in the game, it's all about having patience and realizing eventually things will pan out with this industry. Cannabis has been around for thousands of years and it's going to be around for thousands more. there is profit to be made in the future. Patience and invest early.
It’s a shitty industry right now and unless you’re completely vertically integrated you’ll not make much profit with all this red tape, regulations, competition, race to the bottom. Only a few players will come out on top and for that to happen it needs to be federally legal.
Tobacco is a crop right?
3-4 major companies own the whole market right?
They are insanely profitable right? Scale/capital.
Curaleaf, trulieve verano, greenthumb cresco right?
Phillip morris market cap is 155billion right ?
Trulieves is 2.5bil right?
Thats the opportunity - thats why you get excited.
Agree, things are moving in the right direction. Timing is uncertainty as well as regulations, but still moving in the right direction.
To profit from MJ one has to be on the train and be patient, can't wait until it arrives at the destination and expect big profits.
Well said
I have a play for the mj industry but it isn't msos. That said it's one of the best performing ETFs of the year, so kinda taking off already
so Schedule 3 will help take care of the 280E heavy tax burden, which Trulieve (TCNNF) has already punched holes in and receiving a massive rebate and others will follow suit and claw back money.
Interstate commerce or the lack thereof is actually protecting the MSO's little fiefdoms and while it will eventually go away I hope it is not anytime soon.
Schedule 3 removes a major argument of several politicians who wouldn't entertain the idea of SAFE (or SAFER) while cannabis was Schedule 1 and while you can make up all the theories on the timing (before election, lame duck session, etc) it will eventually get passed. When that happens and banks are allowed to play then uplisting is a short hopscotch away.
The biggest impediment to the stock price currently is ambiguity. For serious money to become involved there has to be i's dotted and t's crossed regarding the business environment, what can be expected, enforced and who has liability and where.
GTBIF, profitable consistently qtr over qtr, yr over yr. TCNFF has a market share in Florida that literally any other business in any other industry would kill for. CURLF is becoming a major international player with presence in Germany and soon to be one of the first majors in the Netherlands.
Finally, how far do you have to go back for todays biggest names to see their trail of low prices before they became monsters? I'm talking about Nvidia, Cisco, and so on. We simply are not at the stage of someone being able to come in, time the blowup and make millions. This is the true believer stage where you build the shares at a price point and you wait for the inevitable. and it is that sound of inevitability (Mr Anderson) that some of us hear. Schedule 1, no redeemable medical value but 80% of states have medical. 30% with recreational. 90% of the population has access. Those facts could not remain in place at the same time forever, one had to give and now we see Schedule 3. This roller coaster is just getting started and it's going to be a long ride.
Its rescheduling allows millions of dollars of federal tax deductions to be written off that have been otherwise non deductible. The market in its current state rewards companies that can beat revenue estimates and generate growth and profits. I don’t see much downside
The industry is highly profitable, but it’s saturated and blurred with legality issues. The industry boomed and busted in Canada during legalization based on future profits, and now fundamental profits are doubling annually and catching up.
If weed convictions are overturned in the future, which is looking more and more likely, there will be an influx of regular weed consumers into the marketplace. Idk the numbers on margins or anything but people in Cali are willing to pay a lot for product that tests high. I personally go maybe every two weeks and spend 200, and I'm not super high income or anything. It's pretty normal behavior for people in my age range ( I think)
Yeah..but the weed convictions, you think that group is going to run straight to a dispensary? Those regular weed consumers will probably start growing or selling their own
Probably some kind of split. But it's a lot of people. Even half of them would be a big boost to business. Also having family who grows and using both kinds of products, dispensary stuff is way better, and way easier to deal with. Plus smokeless products are on the rise and I believe making concentrates will still be highly regulated since the chemicals used for easy extraction are dangerous.
I’m not a big fan of whatever process they’ve used to make it THCA, flower only smoker here. Definitely have been able to tell a difference personally and I know A converts to THC when heated. I’m sure this makes it easier to grow/more controlled. Most the product I see is a high THCA % and very little THC as is, definitely bigger than the 2018 Farm Bill allows, but still like < 3% THC and I’m not sure..it just smokes different imo
Idk, all the vapes I have in my possession rn don't mention thca, just thc, between 85-90%. Maybe I'm just unfamiliar with how they label it though. But yeah gotta take those t breaks if you feel like it ain't hittin, or just get used to vibing at high levels all the time
So I’m not 100% sure, but my guess would be there is no concern if it’s in a vape/cart because you have to drag/heat it up to smoke. With flower you can technically eat it or smoke it, bake it. THCA won’t get you high if you just eat it (I did not know this until I did some homework) it has to be heated or baked to turn it into good ole THC that gets us high.
Feel that, currently taking that t break. Pretty excited for the next time I partake
What is the ticker?
amc
Bti. Even if the cannabis company they invested in doesn't end up super successful, they have the capital for M&A to make improvements. What I think is more important is their distribution deals. Once weed is legalized, tobacco and weed products most likely will be sold side by side. Cheaper than MO, higher dividend, better smokeless products and more international exposure
It’s already “taken” off you mean. The regulation that’s happened recent was priced in months ago.
So you think it won't keep rising?
I do think it will keep rising but the 40%+ YTD rise is not sustainable at all and it may raise from ~$10 to like $12 over the next year.
I don’t see a lot of upside movement on it from here. It’s literally up over 70% over the past year
Even if it does, there's so many small players, and none that are very big, in an industry where there's currently no real brand. Tobacco is different from weed, because the large tobacco companies have established their brands and long term prospects, while no weed company really has a brand that makes people go to them, and a big reason behind this is that, with weed being illegal for decades, the best brand you were gonna get was Gary who works at Gamestop and lives with his mother. Because of this, it's gonna be really hard to pick any major winners in this industry, as it's low barrier to entry, and the demand is very high.
I think the issue is if it becomes federally legal the tobacco companies will just take it over. They have the distribution network already, just got to switch a line to weed instead of tobacco. So I don’t think cannabis stocks will ever have this great multiplier. Even if they do take off, it’s hard to know which company will and then having it beat the S&P
In Australia, we are still in the early R&D phase, so all stocks just haemorrhaging money.
Biden is currently attempting to lower weed’s status from schedule 1 to 3. This might get investors on board.
Big Tobacco will buy all the promising companies, if it ever gets profitable or legalized.
Probably, but you'll know when it's happening. Not worth parking money in while waiting IMO.
I like HITI and TLRY myself…
Careful, Tilray is a Canadian name with no real plant selling in America. Good company but MSOS refers to American companies. The sector is broken into two categories LP’s (Licensed Producers Canadian) and MSOS (multi state operators, USA)
Yeah but MSOS hasn’t impressed me much. I got into TLRY and HITI because they’re good companies and in the case of TLRY, has potential in Germany.
Agree they have access to Germany but the Canadian and German markets are quite small comparatively, still great to have access too. If you have a chance, check out Greenthumb and Trulieve and compare their numbers to Tilray. I think you will be quite surprised at their performance financially.
I already have a position in GTBIF 👍
Sweet, way ahead of the game. I hold both!
HITI is the only cannabis company I am currently invested in and have been invested in since 2021. I have been invested in other MSOS and some of the trash LPs (CGC, ACB), but HITI has the best business model to succeed in this industry.
Cannabis is a commodity like coffee is and the winners in coffee are Starbucks, Dunkin, etc., not the producers.
I like weed and I'm already buying weed. You like weed and your already buying weed. Where is this 'New' market coming from?
Came here to say the same! Everyone I know who wants to smoke weed is already smoking weed.
Even if/when cannabis becomes 100% legal the industry may not be great to invest in. I'd imagine it to be similar to the restaurant industry. High competition, low margins, tough to scale.
And yet, there are plenty of long-term restaurant investments that have been highly profitable as investments and trades.
Not to mention they have been growing out states and building markets for 10+years now. Talk about a moat.
You need to read u/Fuego1050 posts, he is big time bull that have pumping MSOS on numerous boards.
Ultimately - look at the financials. Its been an industry for years now in america and maturing.
Trulieve, verano, curaleaf, greenthumb have excellent margins and fcf positive. Great buisnesses.
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/s/40O3bqSqsW
Canada is not america…… for many reasons and regulatory in nature. America has state level regulations which make it a way different business case.
ATB analysts modeled out the long term future of these business like tobacco/ somewhat commodity, somewhat CPG - and with a pareto distribution - there is insane upside comsidering the TAM.
The cannabis industry is ready taking off, it's very high
There's no money to be made. Margins are so small. Just toke it up and invest elsewhere.
The cannabis market is already a somewhat mature grey market.
Once it's legal it will become utterly saturated.... big companies that already have logistics figured out will destroy any medium sized competitor. This stuff will be behind every counter in gas stations and pharmacies. It's like beer..... any beer companies killing it? Just a handful
Anyone can grow marijuana, it’s like asking if the vegetable market will take off
Not until the companies they purchace can trade on a higher exchange and have over hanging "legalization on the way"
It's a previously overhyped sector, so there are a ton of companies in it that are complete garbage.
Pick one or two of the best, that are doing something other than mass producing shit product that depends on a high price for low quality. The past 6 months have been great for the two I have in mind, and my guess is that they will continue to lead. Because they are super efficient at making great flower and putting it into consumables that people want.
It will take off when federally legalized. Now is the time to buy if you think that will ever happen. $7 a share now could be $150 a share in 10 years.
If the underlying assets of MSOS...the US names listed on the Canadian exchanges ... Ever get to uplist to the NYSE, I'm sure you'll see a massive spike in price just based on hype / more volume.
But you need to be in it already to catch the spike... Otherwise there's a long long long road ahead for US Cannabis.
Personally, I'm in it for the spike of Uplisting. I hold the US names directly that have good balance sheets, for backup. But then I hope they are first in line to uplist, based on their management and roadmaps.
Sooo just keep buying more GTBIF? ✅
Yeah I hold $CURLF $GTBIF $CRLBF $TSNDF and I hold $CBSTF as a lottery ticket prayer.
Due to federal illegality these companies can't write off expenses. So they pay tax on revenue, not profit. Not a good place to be in. Full federal legalization is a long way away. I'm not investing in these companies. I wish federal policy was different, but don't see it changing soon.
It's all part of the plan, buy calls for close to election time, Bidends orgainsers will make this a bigger deal than it is, or make it legal by then
At these valuations. There is lots of room for growth. Cannabis stocks have been beaten down hard. Msos went from all time high in the $50s all way down to $5. Now we are still on a weekly and monthly uptrend since last August when the HHS made its recommendation to reclassify cannabis from schedule 1 to schedule 3. This is big because it removes the 280e tax. The removal of this tax will greatly benefit the bottom line of these companies. Right now they pay around $70 to 75% tax compared to other legal companies that pay around 25% tax. And this will give hundreds of millions of dollars to these companies right away and they are suing for previous years over tax payments. The rise will be glorious, just have to be patient.
No, because regulatory it’s all state by state. Standardization is hard. And they’re state run monopolies at this point
If you look at the 5 year chart of any of these cannabis businesses, most were valued at 10-100x what they are now - with the idea being that it won’t be immediately profitable but there are gigantic growth opportunities. Now the businesses are actually becoming efficient and profitable, more states (and countries) are legalizing, its scheduling status is changing to VASTLY reduce their tax burden as well as shift/reflect the overall approval of marijuana - and the stocks are not moving.
There has never been a better opportunity to invest in marijuana but the volume of trading is so low that the market manipulation is off the rails. Investors are still skittish from the previous dives but there’s a gigantic difference from 2018-2021 era and now. They were massively overvalued then, and are massively undervalued now. I’m not even promoting an individual stock, it’s true across the entire sector.
An argument I will not entertain is that any of the recent catalysts are “priced in” already. When were they correctly priced in? 2019? Today? Why do we think the market is so efficient that we trust the current valuations and not the former? (A BANNED CANADIAN TICKER), for example, has more liquid assets than their entire market cap. The numbers do not reflect reality on any of these business.
The banned ticker is one that Some Naysayers Don’t Like
Even at it's best, it's a low margin business in a highly competitive market. No thanks
Let's me phrase this correctly. The sector that evaporated probably over a billion dollars of shareholder value, when should I try for round 2. The biggest obstacles in the way of retail investors are themselves.
Very very long time. Add it to your portfolio n forget bout it.
Even with federal legalization the whole market is over saturated with too much competition both from the top corporate end and a mom and pop weed show that new shop seems to pop up every week.
What’s revolutionary or a moat a company selling pot can have?
No. Why would I get weed legally when I can hit up my plug, get it for cheaper and 100% of the money goes to him, not to taxes or regulatory fees… Can’t buy weed legally anyway I’m 18
Well. Going to schedule three allows for medical testing and that allows for tax write offs. Going to schedule three could be huge for margins and sales.
It’s doubled it two months. What is take off to you?
Can't really comment on the situation in the US.
However, Germany tried to legalize it fully and as it turns out, that is not possible due to EU law. So you can definitely rule out all EU countries as a future market. Companies selling appliances for homegrown weed will profit regardless, but companies commercially selling weed in EU countries apparently will never happen.
I'm unsure though why it's still legal in the Netherlands, although there seems to be talk about delegalizing weed entirely there
Yes and No, I think Canadian weed stocks are not going to do much ultimately. I am sure a nice pop when its announced but it really wont effect them. However for US weed companies it will be huge, expensing off costs like labor and rent will turn these companies profitable immediately. Being able to bank at federally chartered banks will save money, as well as being able to accept debit and credit card payments from federally chartered institutions will be a game changer. Good luck, Curaleaf is my play, I think its a 20 to 30 dollar stock in 18 months
Are you expecting them to grow like a tech company, 10% yoy? Why? Are pot smokers fucking like rabbits?
Are they like pharma stock? Nothing until a new drug then a boom and bust? Or will they be like a CVS or toothpaste, consistent consumer base paying out a dividend?
You cant wish it into any one of these. It will be what it ends up being, and either you want that profile in your portfolio or not.
Just because you smoke weed every dsy doesn't mean you get the munchies on this sector. Its profile matters more than what they actually do.
Most are in insolvency currently because of saturation. I wouldn’t bank on it unless there’s a scope for other things like ketamine and other psychoactive substances under these brand names for me to see hope for future in other avenues
I believe it’ll launch, the question is how long will they keep on holding it down with shenanigans really.
If Cannabis becomes federally legal, the big tobacco companies are the play. So get in now.
I bought 1,000 share each of CGC, TLRY, and CRON earlier this month for my fun money Vanguard account. Probably going to hold on to them for 3-5 yrs to see what happens.
Stocks might not skyrocket up here but the lineups at the legal stores are always the longest on any day.
There is a bunch of problems with investing in weed the biggest being the sale of weed is regulated at the state, county and city level. Most states have lots of restrictions on who can grow or sell weed. Things like life long residency to grow or sell, maximum amount of weed an individual corporation can grow or sell, a maximum number of shareholders, weed grown in a state is the only weed that can be sold in that state, licenses to grow and sell weed being issued to members of a minority groups first, limits on how many individual licenses a corporation can hold, corporations being banned from holding licenses in different states. Limits on market cap for corporations selling weed.
Another problem is the fact that weed is completely legal in my home state and has been for years and I STILL can buy a better product, cheaper and have it delivered to my door in less than two hours and that’s not gonna ever change.
I like SMG for this reason. Some exposure, but ultimately things are looking good for them this year regardless. My plan is 5+ years though.
Time is money. The value will come with time
cannabis stocks exist to take money from retail gamblers every 4 years ;)
you have no edge. you have hope, and 5 IQ points too many to be attracted to traditional lottery
When the older die off...
I’d have a tiny bit of my portfolio in that industry due to being personally invested in it, as well as the eventual boom of it becoming federally legal, but right now going from schedule 1 to 3 is good, but it’s not much at all. It’s still by all means pretty much illegal. I’d probably choose one or two companies (preferably in legal states already) that could potentially boom once it becomes federally legal.
IDK but I dumped a ton of cash in the YOLO ETF like 5 years ago and I've lost about 90% on it. Only holding it now because the only hope for it is to take off in a major way at some point and then MAYBE I can make my money back .
It will be High soon lol
Buy rycey kids. Smoke legal weed grown locally with profits.
Nope
have a look at the holdings. treasury bills account for a lot.
I had it then decided to just invest in the top 4 cannabis companies. fingers crossed!
cheers!
edit: also the expense is a bit high for my liking
I assume that when schedule 3 happens that more ETFs will pop up.
Schedule 3 is confirmed. It’s happening. You’re right, it will add 100’s of millions to bottom lines being able to get out from under 280e tax.
When cannabis is legalised, the only thing taking off will be Big Tobacco. Cannabis is incredibly easy to produce since the curing process is very simple. It has virtually no barriers to entry. The money will be in marketing and retailing, for which Big Tobacco has about 150 years of headstart.
I think the industry still has plenty of room to grow but the stocks have less upside.
No because the industry is run by a bunch of idiots and the second it's ever properly legalised the grown-ups will come in and kill them
People think that weed stocks will act like tech stocks or trade like Pepsi or something. It’s not gonna happen.
I invested in cannabis more than 5 years ago thinking it was going to take off. It's not happening.
If you want cannabis to become legal, it is very simple, vote for a pro cannabis party instead of team red or team blue. The good news is, even if the people you vote for don't get a seat, what team red and blue will take notice. What the parties will do is seen that 2-3% voter base and think, hmm, if we get them on side we could in an election. Elections can be won or lost these days on a 2-3% swing. At the end of the day it all comes down to ticks by voters in boxes, once there are enough ticks in the right boxes the cannabis industry will take off and become a good investment.
Probably in 10-15 years
In so many states the mystic wore off quickly in mass the amount that is still in business was cut by 40+ %. 5 stores in a town now has 2.
While MJ sales have declined a bit from pandemic highs, the industry is still billions of revenue.
Colorado sales went up every year from 2014 to 2020 and 2023 had over $1.5 billion in revenue, or more than $250 in revenue per citizen.
Extrapolate even 75% of that rate, $188 per citizen and it's an $60 billion dollar a year industry nationwide or more than double what it is today.
Weed is a fundamentally a shitty business
You’re literally selling a weed
A weed is just a plant with a bad PR firm representing them.
Why invest in something you can easily grow in your garden
All this bear sentiment lately around MSOS must mean it’s a good investment.
Lol you are true regard if you buy msos that trade on the OTC exchanges with extremely low liquidity
"All told, multistate operators (MSOs) Acreage Holdings, Ascend Wellness, Ayr Wellness, Cresco Labs, Columbia Care, Curaleaf, Green Thumb Industries, TerrAscend, Trulieve and Verano Holdings owe the Internal Revenue Service an eye-popping $507,193,000, according to their second quarter financial reports
Just two of the companies, Curaleaf and Verano, hold the bulk of the tax debt. Combined they owe the IRS $286 million.
Not only that, but if the companies were forced to fully pay their federal tax bills, only one of the 10 – Green Thumb Industries – would have more than 10 months worth of cash left with which to continue operating.
Verano Holdings would be financially underwater in a big way, with $161.4 million owed to the IRS compared with its $92.8 million cash on hand – meaning it owes 78% more in taxes than it had in cash at the end of its second quarter.
And it’s not clear when the companies plan on paying."
You’re clearly missing the entire point. Check the guys name. If you can’t tell, he has a little bit of a bias issue. All time Tilray hype man.
If you would just get out of your own way and realize this is good for both Tilray and MSO’s you’d be a much happier person, instead of trying to bash something that an obvious win for the entire sector. Canadian and American.
Anyone who wants marijuana already buys it. If it becomes federally legal it's not like the amount of weed being purchased is going to double.
There's a market out there, but looking at legal countries like the Netherlands, it's still going to be a pretty fringe product. It will be generations before we saw legal marijuana become mainstream like wine.
There's obviously room for retail investors to make money, but unless you're running a farming operation or run a retail chain, retail isn't making very much from shares. Not at these prices.
2 words as to why it will never be at its full potential! Government regulation! Nuff said!
Actually the opposite. It’s impossible to regulate. Any idiot with some dirt and a pack of seeds can grow it. But the regulations will make it hard to make money legally, so you are right in that way.
Sure. It will take off one day. And the winners will be the tobacco and alcohol industries. They will already have distribution channels established and are likely to steamroll the small guys.
The marijuana stocks will end up being small suppliers feeding bits and pieces into the sausage maker.
The cost of production will be what it will be, but the profits will go to the people who can maximize revenue while controlling costs of getting it from production to the consumer. Some of those big tobacco companies will produce their own stuff but I expect they will just buy it from the established producers and mark it up. The producers who want to bypass them will have to setup their own distribution channels and deals with the retailers. Any producer who wants to do that find distribution is covered in red tape that is expensive to deal with.
There will be legitimate reasons for that red tape. First and foremost the government will be determined to prevent criminal elements from getting involved. I would expect that will be a major issue as the branded stuff will be taxed. I would imagine some enterprising people will make a knock off version of the branded product and attempts will be made to sell a bit of it mixed in with the legit stuff. Easiest way to do that would likely be somewhere in the supply chain relatively close to the consumer end of it. That means more scrutiny for warehouses and delivery people.
And before anyone says the dispensaries already know about red tape I would say that is red tape without the big distribution networks lobbying for more. They will complain about it being expensive while also demanding more to prevent new competing distributors being setup.
Not until it’s federally legal. There’s 100 better investment opportunities until that happens.