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Just the O Zone layer, we’ll buy another one
Space is pretty big. It seems strange to stick to low earth orbit. Even stranger to imagine that tons of metal burning up in our skies wouldn't have consequences.
Low earth orbit makes it easier to accommodate changing communication traffic rates and permits low latency, the latter being impossible via the much higher Clarke orbit.
Depending on references, roughly 15,000 to 40,000 tonnes of material enters and/or burns up in our skies every year - a large percentage of it metallic - all naturally occurring. This dwarfs projected human activity.
Looking into the future by applying reentry forecasts considering the deployment of mega-constellations, the aluminum excess ratio at the top of the mesosphere can reach an yearly excess of more than 640% above natural levels, or over 360 metric tons of aluminum oxide clusters per year from satellites.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024GL109280
360 metric tons of aluminum oxide clusters per year from satellites.
Can reach. Less than one gram per square km per year. To claim such a small amount would have any meaningful effect is IMO extraordinary.
Stepping back, there's been a flurry of such negativity recently, much of it smacking of the fear, uncertainty and doubt peddled for example by the NASA doctors coming up with every excuse to delay the Mercury astronauts. Thankfully they were ignored.
I guess you don't really understand how catalysts work. Nor do you seem to understand how balanced systems work. It also seem like you're having trouble understanding how time lags work and why they can be so concerning with something like this.
Kinda sounds like you just want to have your favorite space corporation's megaconstellation and to not allow anyone to ever complain about the impacts of something like a megaconstellation.
I would imagine that back in the day you had people like yourself going around saying that there's no way we could ever cut down the primordial forest or that we could ever fish out the oceans. (fig leaf edit :P) And, at the time, it probably seemed like there was no way we could ever chop down the forests or fish out the oceans.
But, that's how imbalances over time tend to add up. Kinda sucks but nature is always keeping a tally.
Why are you reluctant to type the word "SpaceX"? Based on your comment history, it's clear you have an irrational dislike of the company. Regardless, beyond the technobabble, oozing sense of superiority, belittling, and attempt to discredit me by perceived negative association, the claim is nevertheless extraordinary and thus requires extraordinary proof.
I'll leave it there for your no doubt scintillating retort. Have a good day.
Well. All the science is in that link I laid out there for ya. It's up to you to take the appropriate steps and read it or not.
I'm sure there are undoubtedly issues with the science. It's very early on this issue. But, by the time we see the effects, we'll have built in 30 years of having to deal with them.
And given the potential consequences, 30 years of those consequences could really suck.
Not to mention the rare earth elements that are onboard the satallites. What happens if all the exotic materials we are putting into our atmosphere start interacting with solar output and cosmic rays? I really am not fond of the idea of that stuff getting bombarded by space radiation, including the ionizing variety. Oh, and we are probably creating one hell of a noticeable technosignature by doing this to our atmosphere.
It’s a speed of light problem. At 36000 miles it’s two seconds round trip. That’s terrible for just about anything. At low earth orbit 150km or so you’re looking at 100ms which is acceptable for most things.
In the future the satellite will not be needed. Likely we will figure out communications across quantum entanglement which will allow instant communications between two points in space no matter the distance apart.
Now excuse me as I put on this helmet as others will likely stone me for even suggesting that will work.
Ya, no, that can't work. However, what you can do is pack more information into the same communication equipment. They are learning that by polarization of light, you can almost send an infinite amount of information. Also keep in mind that the speed of light in our atmosphere is lower than in space. So if you went out 50 more miles it wouldn't increase latency by that much, but you might be able to pack more satallites safely in that area then you could using current guidelines for orbits.
So, after the whole "Kessler Syndrome" scaremongering didn't work, now it's time to "Starlink will destroy the ozone layer"? What's next, Sats Kill Pandas?
Don't let yourself be so desensitized to the concerns of scientists to the point where you just assume that nothing can cause harm. You talk about scaremongering like there was a concerted effort to undermine Starlink and therefore we should just disregard and openly mock any concerns permanently from now on.
It wouldn't be the first time human development messed stuff up and we had to reverse course and fix things. It also wouldn't be the first time humanity has run a memorandum on a technology and determined the concerns to be unfounded. Either way, I wouldn't be so quick to declare that we should just throw infinite crap into LEO and discover the consequences in real-time.
I'm curious to see what we learn from deorbiting the ISS. Any kind of mishap or complication has the potential to sour investors and policymakers, but any great degree of success or failure could also steer development and innovation towards a better overall solution to the space-waste problem.
ISS is big and solid enough that lots of it will make it to the surface, no doubts about that, so the main efforts there will be deorbiting it accurately to land it in the SPOUA. Luckily the solar panels and heat radiators will burn right off, and the rest of the station is dense enough to get a good and predictable reentry profile on.
What? Kessler syndrome is absolutely still a thing. We have the added benefit of this issue as well though.
This just shows how fucking stupid and short sighted humanity is. Especially when specially little snowflakes seem to think things like Kessler syndrome was scaremongering.
Were Kessler syndrome so likely as some fear, LEO is the best place for satellites. Were the worst to happen, all debris - with the typically lower ballistic coefficients - would deorbit within at worst a handful of years.
That’s a highly optimistic opinion.
We could be putting stuff further out than low earth orbit. This isn't inevitable. We have up until the halfway point between the Earth and the Moon to deploy stuff. That's what so damn infuriating about this and Kessler.
It shouldn’t be inevitable at least.
It's not this is a manageable problem that is partially caused by arbitrary factors. Think about it let's say that you plan a star link sat to de-orbit after 5 years. That means you got to replace that satallite, which takes a whole new launch. Meanwhile, they could just launch it with a bit more fuel on the last stage or launch half as many satallites per launch while putting on onboard thrusters and fuel on the satallites. Get the thing doing gravitational slingshots around the Earth, and we could have satallites that last decades instead of years. We could design them to be recycled in orbit, repurposing older materials. This is entirely an artifact of corporate beurocracy interacting with government beurocracy. We should be giving NASA 10x the operating budget they have given the potential long-term payout.
Debris cascades are very much still a thing. And now we have the ozone layer issue.
It probably still won't be enough to stop the billionaires from doing their billionaire stuff or their biggest fanbase from shouting down anyone who dares to complain.
But, one can hope that eventually people will start paying attention.
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3d
"The current V2 Starlink satellite version weighs approximately 1,760 lbs (800 kilograms) at launch, almost three times heavier than the older generation satellites (weighing in at 573 lbs or 260 kg)"
https://www.space.com/spacex-starlink-satellites.html
If you actually watched the video, you would understand that it's not the weight of the material that is the problem but the actual chemical composition of the satallites. It doesn't take much CFCs to destroy the ozone layer by weight. It's all metals and other non-natural elements that are being released at that altitude.
Every single launch into space causes damage. Everyone was focused on the carbon impact for years and that issues been solved but carbon isn't the only thing that screws with it.
In saying that, I don't think we should stop but the fact this shot seems like common sense yet people treat it like new knowledge is astonishing. Especially considering the amount of info is out there. Takes a nice short headline for it to sink in maybe.
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Everyone should be scared of everything all the time forever.