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David Shapiro No Longer Crazy Bullish on AI "I have come to believe that Al is facing a downturn (e.g. Gartner Hype Cycle "trough of disillusionment") and there are increasing headwinds that will slow down Al advancement for the foreseeable future."
AIFrankly, his arguments for AGI 2024 were not very convincing to start with. And that's me being polite.
Just keep an open mind, don't make big life decisions based on mere predictions, and enjoy the ride. There's lots to look forward to in the coming years.
The dude has no idea of the technical side of AI IMO. I stopped watching his videos when it started to only be deluded philosophical hyperbole (so like 6 month ago I'd say).
Good to see him get his feet on the ground, but I don't think he has any more idea of the technical side.
AI isn't "facing a downturn". He was just hyping himself up way more than he should have and as a result of it now lets the pendulum swing into the other direction.
He's gonna come back once GPT-5 release lol
We don't seem to understand what may be going on.
We seem to have gone through a wave of realization that something big has happened and is coming. We've then overhyped that, assuming that it will all hit this year. Now that it's not hitting, we're assuming that it must have been a fluke.
We're still on track with my original prediction of the evolution of GPT. 4 years ago it was unthinkable.
Right now, this is the beginning of the intelligence explosion. Also, we've overhyped the process.
Buckle in, things are just getting started. The Singularity is going to be such a HUGE shift, that these changes we're seeing today are just the tide going out before the Tsunami hits.
The approaches to AI are probably all sigmoid curves. Meaning, they'll plateau. But they'll lead to new approaches which will then hit massive growth before plateauing. Get used to massive advancements, with short pauses, before even larger advances.
This is just like a Tsunami. Watch how it works. Just keep in mind it's not a Tsunami of destruction like in 2011. This is a Tsunami of creation.
We've never seen anything like this.
You're going to spend the next decade extremely disappointed if you think now is the start of an intelligence explosion.
I don't think it's going to take just a decade. This is a multi-decades long shift. Even over the past 4 years I've already been extremely impressed. So, if that's all the progress we make, then I won't be disappointed.
This fear of being disappointed, do you think it might be causing us a lot of depression and anxiety? As if maybe we feel we have nothing left to hope for?
Hardware is the main constraint. Intelligence explosion assumes you can get many, many orders of magnitude more efficiency gains on the current hardware which frankly we don’t know that. Otherwise the supply of intelligence is limited by the scale of data centers and the available energy to them. And sure we will update them but this is more like 10-20 years rather than this decade.
This sounds like desperate cope.
When we're so entirely surrounded by pessimistic outlooks, can you see any optimistic take sounding like anything but a desperate cope?
Would you rather embrace the pessimistic outlooks instead?
This isn't what optimism looks like. You're setting yourself up for a crash.
What does optimism look like to you?
In the comments he now predicts AGI around 2027. Still seems way too optimistic to me.
Same.
I would guess that a lot of the boxes will be ticked by then. Maybe not all of them but 2027 is GPT-6 level models and unless you assume it’s leveling off they will be broadly more intelligent than GPT-4 in many ways.
it is logical that it seems that the hype for ai is passing and everything is slowing down. we are living in an optimization phase where the first generation startups will start to disappear as many of them did not provide real or useful services and were just gimmicks or did not understand how to take advantage of the technology.
we are seeing how the small models are reaching a plateau where for the moment they can't give more in consumer hardware and also the companies that have their own models are starting to focus on guiding the consumer to use their API's or enterprise products.
the general public used to having a new product every month will feel that "the trend" of ai is over and we will jump to something new. i don't know how many times i have heard people comparing ai to nft and it is logical because the public understands it that way because that is how consumer product companies have accustomed them but just because the general public sees it that way does not mean that behind all that Openai, anthropic, Mistral or Meta will stop the development of ai.
uncomfortable truth: his job is being an influencer and he depends on engagement. so it is his job to stir up continuous drama cycles. very sad, as he is obviously quite intelligent and i hoped, as a fellow autistic individual, more immune against this deformation professionelle. good bye david!