Starting stacks were:
UTG+2 - $10000 | Hero (LJ) - $20500 | Villain (CO) - $20500 | BTN - $55000
Preflop ($75): Hero is LJ with Q♦Q♥️
UTG calls $50, UTG+1 calls $50, UTG+2 calls $50, hero raises $500, HJ folds, CO calls $500, BTN calls $500, 4 folds, UTG+2 calls $500
Flop ($2100): K♦3♠Q♠
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $1000, CO raises $2000, BTN folds, UTG+2 calls $2000, hero calls $2000
Turn ($8100): 7♦
UTG+2 checks, hero checks, CO bets $500, UTG+2 calls $500, hero raises $5300, CO calls $5300, UTG+2 calls $5300
River ($24000): 8♦
Hero checks, CO goes all-in for $12700, UTG+2 folds, hero calls $12700
Showdown: CO reveals A♦K♠. Hero reveals Q♦Q♥️. Hero wins $50,000 with three of a kind, Queens.
Here's my logic for the call on the river: "If he had pocket kings, he would have raised on the flop instead of calling. If he had two diamonds, he would have bet more on the turn than he bet on the flop. Therefore he has nothing."
Still, it had been an up and down session where I'd started with $6000 and doubled my money, so I wasn't sure if I wanted to risk it all on this particular hand.
My question is: was this a justified call or did I just get lucky?
Preflop: If people are cold-calling $500 pre, you can exploitatively go even bigger.
Flop: I would strongly consider 3betting on the flop. You're only losing to KK which neither V should have given preflop action. The board is very draw-heavy and there are a ton of turn cards that kill future action. If a S comes, Kx or 2pair may fold which is kind of a disaster since that's exactly the type of hand you want to get value from. If you 3bet and get 4bet, I'd be looking to rip it in on the flop expecting to be a favorite.
Turn: I like the raise here. If you make it 5300 and one player calls, the pot will be 18700 and you'll have ~12000 left behind. That's about perfect for a 2/3 pot shove on the river.
River: I'd do a ton of calling here. I don't think people are finding the proper bluffs on the flop with backdoor flush draws and so I think it's pretty unlikely either V has a flush here. If frontdoor spades got there, I'd probably snap fold, but with the backdoor getting there I am calling a lot.