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well, crime is already rising in the form of scams and fake donations.
banyak surat minta bantuan, banyak kana scam lol. Banyak minta sedekah d fb.
annex by sarawak..😂
I prefer to think positive and do something now than regretting it in the future, I'm pretty sure Brunei will be moving to renewable energy sources, no matter they like it or not. Oil prices will hike at that time. If people are not upgrading their skills for future they will far left behind, as they are competing with newer generations that are much capable than them in terms of adapting to new technology. So it's up to us..
The year is 2035.
- Capital and human flight accelerated after economic recession reached boiling point after oil and gas production suffers extreme decline owing to lack of new significant discoveries.
- Energy major shell mulls exits brunei after more than 100 years of operations in Brunei.
- Layoffs ensue in the oil and gas industry as a result of severe production cuts and shell’s impending exit. Joblessness grows among the common people as multiple industries are struggling due to the domino effects from the oil and gas industry.
- In response to the economic decisions, government fully nationalizes the brunei shell joint venture companies in order to take control of the remaining assets. Shell pulls out after negotiations with brunei government are completed. Expats begin to leave the country.
- Growing dissatisfaction at the government turns into open dissent. A disgruntled group of former oil and gas workers who were laid off begins openly attacking government policies on social media platforms. Government retaliates by shutting down or restricting access to socmed and detaining dissenters under ISA.
- Chinese Bruneians fearing racially motivated attacks ala Indonesia’s May 1990 riots begin leaving for safe havens in Singapore and the region. Massive capital outflow is happens. Some even start lobbying PRC embassy in BSB for support to no avail due to PRC’s non-interference policies.
- Government begins strict regulation of capital outflows, first by limiting transfers of currency overseas then blocking it altogether to stop collapse of the financial system. Taxation is mooted in parliament and then introduced by decree (without public consultation) to support the overburdened budget.
- Taxation comes into force by decree. Government assures people that this is necessary to safeguard the country. People think otherwise.
- Poor economic conditions begin to expose lower social classes to risk of falling into poverty. This propels many to a life of crime, seeking to feed their hungry families. Crime rate sky rockets. Wealthier Bruneians begin emigrating or seeking safe havens.
- Government implements curfews to stem crime waves. Unable to cope with the situation the RBAF is mobilized to support local enforcement agencies. Police force is placed under temporary Mindef oversight.
- Police and military control major roads and highways as beginning patrols in high risk areas. Police powers are already enhanced under ISA, to detain without cause or trial.
- 9 September incident (later known as 9-9), 2 local men were found in the vicinity of a restricted zone were shot and killed for trespassing during a curfew (they were later found to be foraging for food). Public anger grows at the news of the death of the men. A mob assembles in front of the local police station in the vicinity demanding the trial of the police officers involved in the murder.
- Police and army units disperse the mob with non lethal force, using rubber bullets and tear gas. Dissent grows further at police and military brutality. Public opinion of the government on socmed (now severely curtailed by restrictions), drops to an all time low. Many now demand end to the ISA and militarization of the police and curfew.
- Government attempts to stop further mobs by releasing official statements of the enforcement of ISA, reminding public that martial law is still in force.
- 20 December (flashpoint moment)- a bomb explodes near a government building. It doesn’t hurt anyone due to the minute size of the explosion. Arms controls have been in place hence access to explosives are restricted. A local freedom fighter organization calling itself the Reformed People’s Liberation Party claims responsibility. All reserves of the RBAF and GRU are called to arms and moved to staging grounds.
- Military executed“Operasi Pacung”, targeting known dissenters and hotbeds of anti-government activity. This is Brunei’s “night of long knives”. Many are arrested and imprisoned without trial. RPLP members are tracked and hunted.
- Public opinion is crushed. Major powers including Great Britain announce that they remain neutral to the internal conflicts but are concerned at the government’s extreme actions. Britain’s Gurkha regiment in Seria is placed on high alert.
- Rebel groups begin to form in urban areas. Rural areas more conservative and side strongly with the establishment. The capital is reinforced by the military and police.
- Chinese and American embassies evacuate their staff. All other countries missions also evacuate soon after. Brunei International Airport is shutdown. Permits are required to leave the country by land, sea or air.
- ASEAN chair and respective member countries announce policy of non-intervention, however Indonesia and Malaysia abstain from making such a statement. Malaysia and Indonesia view brunei as a strategic area in Borneo (Indonesia having its administrative capital on the same island while Malaysia draws most of its oil and gas from Sarawak oil fields). China announces the same however intervention would be possible if Chinese assets and personnel are harmed. US likewise announces the same to prevent possible Chinese influence from the intervention.
The year is 2035. Factions are forming. The great powers circle the brunei like vultures to a carcass. ASEAN prepares for a possible dissolution in its union. The road is unclear. Whoever wins, must face the prospect of a long recovery. Which side will you pick?
(Note - This is just a work of fiction based on a game I played called People’s General)
Remind me! 11 years
I will be messaging you in 11 years on 2035-07-04 02:23:04 UTC to remind you of this link
CLICK THIS LINK to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
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I think a much more relevant and important question is what would you do when Brunei runs out of oil?
china will buy us
Thats what the Bolkiah dynasty did when they were broke, selling away lands in Sarawak and Sabah piece by piece. Worse, its not even their lands under the Tulin-Kuripan land ownership system in place at that time.
They were forced by British to give away the lands, not because they were broke. Because Great Britain is a bully and they force Brunei to do it.
Then why did SOAS II and his successors accepted the annual payments for the lands ceded to Brooke? For someone who was "forced" to give up lands, he definitely didnt have problem being bribed for it.
What is the alternative, fight against the British and hope for the best?
They did well against the Spaniards
3 on the list already happening.
There is a chance of opening up the economy to more Foreign Talent (experienced one) and FDI coming in. Hopefully if we follow Singapore blueprint after they left malaysia we still have a chance. a bit too late but better late than never
A new hope after rockbottom, look up, next step to start on the road to correction and do the right thing.
bruneians will then start living on top of trees. and we live happily ever after.
No oil money income means no more money hiring Gurkas British for country protection. To play safe the RFs & rich ministers slowly migrate to live lavish elsewhere. Bercelaru system wil show up whom handle by CP. Brunei economic suffer & superced greatly by sarawk, sbah & kalimatran. At rhe latter, brunei as a whole wil symbolicaly up for sales.
WW3 will happen first before that runs out. By that time, Singapore City and Kuala Lumpur will be nuked to paralyze their country. Brunei won't be nuked as we are not a threat. In the end, after the nuclear fallout, Brunei will once again prevail.
Mind telling me which brand and flavour you're smoking with? Might try one of these days.
It seems consuming illegal substance is the norm for you to say such things. Does it make you look cool? Or you want to appear rad like all the budak kampungan fools out there?
🤫🧏
Overconfident.
We will be annexed at best or occupied at worst as we are not a threat. World war is a huge economic gameboard and cannot be run indefinitely. Give it 3 to 5 years and when it ended, unilateral, bilateral agreements and new peace resolution will ensure we will be given our sovereignity or at least autonomy. At that stage, Sarawak and Sabah will probably use that chance to break off from Malaysia and establish themselves as a new nation state. Civil wars will erupt. As for Singapore, well.. its as good as gone I guess with majority of their population race is chinese where the west has intrinsic inferiority complex on. They will use whatever reasons to wipe Singapore off so that by the end of the world war, advantage of financial gains will not fall to Southeast asia where Singapore will 100% be the new frontier of economic hub post-war. I read many books regarding wars so I am not talking out from my arse.
Can dm me top 3 books that u read that may be beneficial?
Cabul eh, nauzubillah
Bukan cabul tni tau jua kali ah minyak ani pndai abis. Bisai sdh tu tni berdiscuss psl ani mencari alternatif awal sblum terlambat
Sooooo... you just don't talk about it and hide your head in the sand?
Nope, every words we say are prayer. How didn't you know that? Maybe you're not Bruneian & not a Muslim
Iatah talur ni namanya, ignorant, banar kata itu doa, tpi menipu diri sendiri pun sma jua.
Usaha ikhtiar barutah tawakal.
Why don't you cabul that our country becomes better? Or is the prayer only effective if you pray for a negative outcome?
Rice becomes expensive
Rich gangsters would take over the country as the government officials would be more prone to bribes.
By the time oil runs out, talented people would already left the country.
There is not a single chance that people who are brainwashed by MIB would even have the mental capacity to develop the country without mingling with racial and religious based mindset. Praying will never solve real life issues. Maintaining a malay privilege will drive away the idea of inclusivity and racial harmony. Maintaining monarchy system will continue to create division that never benefit the public.
This sounds about right. Unless there's a drastic change and intervention in this overly religious and strict path Brunei is going down, that's the likeliest outcome since a lot of educated and talented youth are already setting their sights to work outside of Brunei, seeing as it doesn't have a future to offer.
poverty
rise of crimes
no more free health care & education
car prices & car fuel increase.
Brunei will be borrowing money which leads them in big debts.
singapore will cut ties with brunei.
our currency will be worst than RM.
brunei passport won't be that strong anymore.
talented young one will be looking for better opportunity in neighboring countries like sabah, sarawak, miri, kuching, limbang, lawas, singapore or KL. As neighboring countries are developing their economy.
China will step in
To think that taxes are coming once oil and gas run out is funny. Who is the government going to tax? Most of the people in Brunei barely earn 4 digits. GST maybe, but even then, domestic population is so small that it would barely raise revenue
Flee
All of those gonna exist (and already exists) even before oil runs out bro
God knows.
Economic collapse. Cannabalism. World War Z
Pray like it’s Ramadan everyday.
potentially anything yg durg pernah ban dlu di brunei akan ada semula...
Been watching the middle east conflict. Maybe the rise of clerics?
How about chaos in how many decades? Time is ticking.
Brunei will be back in the 1950s...fishing village and kampong life
Do you think there will be racial tension issue?
Indonesia 1998 riot will likely happen IMO.
The chinese will also continue to be poor and more unemployed, no tension expected
The chinese will continue to be poor? Honestly, Brunei’s trade is majorly conquered by Chinese & Indians. Not to mention, their heritage money from decades of saving. I think they’ll be fine.
You think all Chinese are businessman? lol seriously? All Chinese have this heritage money, wtf. This is called you see what you wanna see. what's next, all Chinese good at maths or kung fu?
Did I say all or did I say “majorly”? By all means, enlighten me - why Chinese, specifically, will continue to be poor in the forecasted Brunei economy? Any racial income statistic you were referring to?
Have you not figured out yet one of the major effects of the constant changing gov policies? Who it favours, how it change the wealth distribution and employment opportunities? I mention 'Chinese' specifically in relation to racial tension brought up by OP
TLDR: The hierarchy of wealth distribution is being shaped and guess who's at the bottom
Basically by poor, you were referring to chances given to chinese in the government sectors as well as the lack of privileges for them, like those for Malays?
The whole package. With things turning bad, say the govt decides to make free/subsidised healthcare only available to locals, what do you think will happen if you need to pay full price for healthcare? This is a possibility, it's not a zero
What makes you say that?
I honestly think a lot of people in the high ranking knows what's happening to Brunei, but they don't have the power to change it, only suggest which gets ignored, so hopefully, in the future, tough times creates better people
Certainly they know.
Just look at LegCo, actually so many intelligent people, experienced bureaucrats, social and business leaders in there.
I wonder how they really feel inside when the leader and the ministers start to talk, yet they couldn't challenge and debate like in other democratic countries parliament.
not forgetting ‘scripted’ too
Chads create Based Times, Based Times creates Virgins, Virgins create Cringe Times, Cringe Times create Chads
That putting it mildly in meme speak despite it’s a proven cyclical theory in political science.
Right now in (arguably) Cringe Times, be ready to be Chads, but all I’m seeing right now are Virgins. Lol
When oil runs out, people will then start to take this country seriously and those at the top better be ready to do what’s right because either they learn to steer the country with a proper course of deadass action (before it has become too late) or someone else will take over and do it themselves and we will be very lucky if that “someone else” isn’t some puppet leader who doesn't give a sh*t at our home.
Complete decline into poverty. The present imposed conditions will leave Brunians ill-prepared for the future.
No more Brunei. Becoming part of Sa...
Sa decline , they dont want to waste money on a lost cause
I think Brunei will start to have more high tech company and electronics. To reduce its dependency on oil.
On my younger days i have been thinking like we can actually develop our own types of solar panels for power generations since sun has always been reliable source of energy here
High tech belacan
You need a highly-educated population, specifically, a good amount of engineers.
This is seen in Penang (electronics manufacturing hub of Malaysia), Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, Japan and some cities of China.
Brunei struggles to meet that, for sure it has engineering graduates but not enough to sustain a robust high tech industry. It can't attract a lots engineers abroad too because salaries not high enough, and worse there is local brain drain contributed by the stateless issues.
STEM graduates byk keraja as administrator and as technicians…..what a waste…
Petrol and diesel subsidies will definitely go away. If Brunei is no longer producing oil then there is no reason to subsidise petrol/diesel. Gas to homes in the Belait district will stop. Tong gas will go up in price.
Electricity and water prices will go up, since Brunei electrical supply is gas powered and water pumps and treatment depends on cheap electricity among other things. More brownouts and blackouts will occur except at Istana. Bruneians on reddit talk about whether their tap water is kopi O or teh O colour.
Prices of goods will all increase because of the petrol/diesel/electricity/water price increase. Economic activity in Brunei will decrease. More and more shophouses and shops remain vacant and abandoned. Jalan Sultan looks like a third world country with half abandoned shops. Yayasan has garbage in the walkways and dirty/damaged toilets. Buses that take people to Miri/Limbang to buy groceries will become popular.
People will start complaining why car ownership is so expensive and why Brunei didn't invest in reliable and affordable public transport in the 80s/90s/2000s/etc.
Government will still blame the youth for not doing their part and asking the nation to pray harder. MoRA now gets 30% of the annual budget. Development plans are abandoned. Entire departments (e.g. tourism) and ministries (e.g. energy) dissappear from the government.
30 years after that, Brunei is left with the super-old boomers who thanks to growing up in the British period and the immediately post-independence period had the best healthcare/education/jobs in what is considered Brunei's golden period, and therefore has the best life expectancy.
Most of the younger generation are working in Miri or KK or KL or if they are lucky Singapore or Australia, and they don't come back for raya every year because they cannot afford it every year. Many look back at their history and wondered why did Brunei even got independence and gave up their well managed wealth/healthcare/way-of-life to one guy who immediately used a large part of it to build a palace for himself and started placing restrictions, caused social disruptions, discouraged foreigners/tourists, banned fun, and tried to bring the country back to the middle ages instead of developing it like the other ASEAN neighbours.
Domestic gas in Belait will go soon. That’s good quality gas being piped to houses for very cheap. Not to mention a lot of “leakage” - look at all those small fires everywhere. Better overall to sell that and then bottled gas (tong) is the way to go
The piped gas in KB/Seria will probably be shutdown around 2026/27 when the LPG bottling plant in PMB starts operations.
massive unemployment because most companies here rely on oil and gas. More unemployment means no money, more poverty and more crimes. With the inflation and cost of living standard rising, the country will face worse scenario unless there is an action. Not talk only, but no actions. Lets hope the price of oil increase in the long run and with some miracles from Allah there are more oil reservoirs for future generations as long as there is a demand for oil unless we go green :) another question, do we have the capability to go green? are we innovative enough in comparison with other countries? do we have the resources and capabilities? why we didnt invest on these back in the days when we were so rich?
Good question. Funny thing is that same exact question or rather prediction had been foresighted half a century ago: That Brunei's oil production would run dry in 30 years! 😭
But 5 decades later, with rapidly improved data analytics, dynamically changing oil extraction and drilling technology, more and more new discoveries both onshore and offshore have been found since then and adding up bigger volumes of 'Black Gold'! 🤑 In fact, over 60 years ago after the first Natural Gas strike in Alaska, United States, Brunei LNG Plant in Lumut was the world's second plant to be built in 1970 and the 1st large scale LNG Plant to have been successfully constructed by Bechtel Inc. (An American firm that also built the world-renowned 1,788 room Nurul Iman Palace whose Chairman then was the late George Schultz former US Secretary of Treasury and Secretary of State respectively).
So most sincere and emotionally intelligent thinking dictates that Islamic Prayers as the Muslim Way of Life are the true Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for accurate measures of worldly Success and Eternal Success in the Hereafter. Aameen Ya Rabbal 'Alaamiin 💯✅😇🤑😅🤔🤑💰💵💸
This is too…… whimsical thinking lmao
Rumor has it our country is starting to decommission some of the oil wells in the country. Lel
The next few years will be more project on decommsioning than exploration explain very well abt our dwilnding oil n gas reserves.
Yup. It's like a complete overhaul of your car engine but not a piece of cake! 'Cos a lot of legal frame work to work on, basically since such massive efforts need to consider the SHENA Codes of Conduct, particularly Technical Safety, Health issues and Environmental concerns.
Not to mention the exorbitantly high costs up to a couple of billions or more?! But the plus side for this particular Brunei Shell's Removal of Offshore Redundant Facilities project or also known as Offshore Decommissioning could be the first in the Southeast Asian region since Brunei's very first offshore oil well production to be operational was some 10 miles off the Kuala Belait beach in 1963.
And that makes it a Pioneering kinda Pilot project to be carried out by Brunei Shell Petroleum Co Sdn Bhd (BSP). Meaning to say whichever highly successful international consortium contractor in joint venture with an established local Bruneian Contractor to be awarded the mega project, could gain invaluable expertise technically to offer their experienced services to other neighbouring O&G producing countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, etc.
What a Golden Opportunity for young skilled Bruneian Offshore workers to earn their living as Offshore Decom specialists not only locally but regionally or even internationally, for that matter! 💯
Not rumours, it already started for quite some time and soon to be picking up in pace
It’s a fact not a rumour!
https://thescoop.co/2021/06/28/over-1000-ageing-oil-wells-to-close-in-next-30-years/
Idk about more discoveries, most of our oil rigs are reducing their load due to aging facilities and drying bed.
Its not a coincidence that bruneis annual oil production is decreasing every year
Brunei Shell of course are still struggling with maintenance backlog issues which they're now on top of their trouble shooting days.
So enter the upcoming to be awarded multi-million dollar Contract MNCs starting late this year or next year with a couple of Brownfield Redundant Facilities (Phase 1) and Well Abandonment (Phase 2) and so on and so forth, given ageing 60 yrs old Southwest Ampa platforms and over 50 yrs old Champion-7 platforms plus spaghetti-like hundreds of miles long pipelines sleeping, rusting and leaking on the seabed of the Shallow waters off the Brunei coast. 🤑
However, other established O&G Players are continuously operating business as usual like Petronas Carigali Brunei Ltd✅ and Total Energies☑️ plus Shell Deepwater Borneo Ltd ✔️which have yet to go into full swing to capitalize on their substantial reserves of natural gas-rich reservoirs about 100 nautical miles out in the open sea Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)... So there! 💯
Total is constructing an onshore compression plant indicating that their gas reservoir pressures are already in decline. Shell Deepwater Borneo is not active… haven’t seen any news about them for many years now. Shell’s deepwater discoveries have all been part of the Malaysia’s Gumusut-Kakap reservoir structure which Malaysia has been producing from for over 10 years so Brunei is way late to that party. Petronas’ CA2 deepwater reservoir has a projected production profile that does not indicate it to be a substantial field, with gas production expected to decline by over 60% by the 15th year of production. The industry has a bad habit of over-promising and under-delivering so I would take any discovery announcements with a good pinch of salt.
Mora budget drop to tahi
Borrow money from other countries just for royal wedding.
Happy birthday bro
Moderator removed comment
2mo
It possible can be
Whining on reddit, definitely
I don't foresee that to happen other than the drop in pricing due to oversupply in the market. Say $5 a barrel?
lots of unemployment particularly those who are currently in downstream oil industry. Here's hoping for the best in the future to our local engineers and whoever involved.
MIB will be hancur definitely
Just look at Nauru if you want your predictions. Gout has covered this already.
Oh, plus brain and money drain before it completely runs out, and is happening already.
I think I’d like to add to that: more of our young generation and those qualified will be leaving and looking to get better employment and livelihood prospects outside the country soon in other words brain drain. We are already seeing it even today but in the future it’s going to be the norm just like all the professional expats who are working here and I’ve talked to on why they’re leaving their countries behind.
My gut feel is that most of our subsidies will be impacted by this. There will definitely be high taxes, cost of living, fuel prices, expensive medical care, high school funds, and the list goes on. We will not be living in a situation like we are right now.