seekingalpha.com/article/4697394-rivians-equivalent-of-a-model-3-moment-is-around-the-corner
Rivian's Equivalent Of A Model 3 Moment Is Around The Corner
NewsAnd with established competition, not as a first mover.
And without low interest rates
The state of EV market is kindof a nightmare. I really hope these companies can weather the storm.
nightmare
idk, Tesla seems to be making room for everyone else by destroying their own reputation and losing their way.
Tesla is the only one I'm confident will make it, other than the state subsidized Chinese companies.
Rivian looks primed to be bought out by one of the Big 3. Ford could save a shit ton in R&D by buying Rivian. The R2 could easily be made into the next gen Ford Explorer EV. The R1 could be the next Lincoln Navigator. Heck, maybe Tesla’s next CEO will buy Rivian for its trucks, so Tesla can finally take the Cubertruck behind the tool shed and put it out of its misery.
Nightmare scenario. I would rather rivian remain independent
In a perfect world, yes, we'd have room for many small EV manufacturers innovating and coming out with cool vehicles.
Sadly, though, surviving can be dependent largely on achieving economies of scale, and that takes selling 100s of 1000s of vehicles a year, so "small" and "viable" aren't exactly aligned (unless the company is selling exclusively million-dollar cars).
I'm really rooting for Rivian, Lucid, and even Aptera to become stable and secure. They all bring new approaches to an industry that needs fresh ideas.
So would I but given the choice I would rather see it bought out and the designs continue than go out of business entirely.
I could see Bezos buying them and making the biggest competitor to Tesla as a vanity project against Musk. Seems like the type of thing a self-centered billionaire would do.
Bezos no longer runs Amazon.
EDIT: Unless you mean Bezos himself independent of Amazon.
Yes, that's what I meant.
And only available in the US
Rivians are sold in Canada too. RJ mentioned plans for Europe in recent presentation.
I'm confident that that is the true intended market for the R3. (As much as I am desperately wanting one here in the US)
Also it's assuming they hold to their $45,000 price point.
Exactly. Seems like people have learned nothing. The R2 will NOT cost $45k for the base trim. It will be more than that, I promise.
Mine won’t. :) $45K or I go away.
Base model
Late 2026 or early 2027 is the best case scenario. When did 2+ years become right around the corner?
Since they are planning on make it in the current factory and they already did upgrades to improve production capacity up to 150K per year, I think factory readiness is not the issue. I think issue would come to product readiness and COGS to ensure it does not blow through the budget. Only time will tell if they can make it on time.
Yeah a lot can happen in over two years.. similar to how they launched the R1T and added 20k to most people’s pre orders citing COGS and inflation, and Rivian only back tracked because of bad press
The production line will probably not be the same right? So whatever upgrade will not apply, since it a new line.
No delays. But there will always be delays. Projects don’t always match reality. I say add another year
Didn't Lucid come out on time? Ignore the small fact that they lose like 6 digits per car, but on time's a win.
Well Fiscker definitely came out when they said it would. That's the current Fisker iteration that's burning to the ground, the Ocean arrived just when they said it would. Half-baked at that.
Maybe necessary delays are just that, necessary.
To be fair to Lucid, most of the delays were probably 2020 related.
lol
Saddly, probably closer to 4 years
lol
Your thinking in Elon timelines. I hope Rivian is better at projecting timelines.
I hope I’m wrong. R2 and R3 are amazing. Def would get an R3 for sure
I’m still excited for it! Direct sales is a huge win for me, dealerships are the worst
i would buy an R3 if available - thing is amazing looking. but i've also been saying that about a bunch of cars that have been announced and then never come to fruition as promised.
The existence of the R3 relies heavily on the R2 rollout. Without strong support there they might be in trouble
The difference is that Rivian isn't vaporware like so many other EV startups. Their financials keep improving with time, and it looks very likely that they'll stick around more than long enough to produce the R2 and R3.
not disagreeing with you - i see them everywhere now. excited to see the R2/R3. These EV startups have been hammered the last 2 years, we'll see what happens
i see them everywhere now.
Where do you live that you see them? I have seen 2 rivians ever.
Edit: Apparently, they are everywhere outside of the Ruatbelt
I see Rivians every time I go for a drive in southern California
northeast
Im in Southern Maryland/DC. I see Rivians most every drive.
Yeah I’m in the dc metro area and see them everywhere. I even met one of their engineers testing one cross country at a charging station here a few years ago well before they came out. Showed me the ins and outs happily and I gotta admit, it’s an awesome car. A bit too expensive and new of a brand for me practically but I do think they’ll figure it out.
i see at least 2 a day in georgia
I'm in ATL and they're all over. It's hard to drive and not see one here.
Lots in Central Texas, both truck & SUV
Dime a dozen in some of Seattle's suburbs
Quite popular in the Denver area. I see a lot of F150 Lightnings as well.
I'm in Delaware and I see them literally every time I go out on the road, they're everywhere around here
They're not uncommon in Chicago
At least one a day in Northwest Arkansas.
Central Indiana, HamCo specifically.
All over the place around Boston
Colorado
Area dependent and it helps that we have a Vinfast dealership but I've seen more Vinfasts than Rivians. We also have a Rivian dealership though.
Ive seen a bunch in the Houston, TX area too.
There’s dozens around my town in NJ. Even saw a Fisker and Rivian side by side today.
I'm with you. None in Mexico at all.
Not to pile on but they're all over the Philly region in PA as well. Love them. Can't wait for the R2, but if it gets pushed, I might end up getting an R1T
I've seen plenty of them in the Chicago burbs, so there's your rust belt representation lol.
Gary is rust belt, Chicago, not so much
Yeah, Chicago is the edge of it, at least those parts of South side that are more industrial and have involvement with auto manufacturing or steel mills.
They are all over the Seattle area/Western Washington.
In northern NJ I have seen the occasionally for a year or so. In the past few months I see them almost daily.
I am in south jersey near Atlantic City. There are three Rivians in my area. More now that summer is here, but those will probably go away come fall.
Oregon. Just the other day my wife remarked that I no longer get excited and point them out. Yeah… they aren’t unusual anymore! Still want one.
I see them pretty often here in North Texas. Someone near me definitely owns one, I see an R1S in the parking lot of my son's daycare when I do drop off.
I’m in a rivian right now
The R2 is the most appealing EV I have seen yet. It’s very likely my next vehicle if I can hold out that long.
They are improving, but not profitable. That means they need investors who are patient and generous enough to let them develop. I think they have that and have some promising commercial vehicle deals, but a lot can happen between now and 2026.
Their largest investor and their largest contract for commercial vehicles is Amazon. I think they'll be fine
Yes, it appears to me that the fleet arrangement with Amazon is going fairly well (just based on how many I consistently see).
I find it highly plausible that Rivian could become the go-to choice for a custom or semi-custom fleet.
Which is why Rivian looks more and more like a buy out target for a traditional auto company. They’ve done all the R&D for a company that has no roadmap for trucks or commercial vans.
Amazon is famous for squeezing partners to make a profit.
Amazon is not just a partner but also a shareholder in Rivian.
People keep confusing what Rivian means by the manufacturing being profitable does not mean the company will be. Even if they break even with manufacturing this year; it is very doubtful; they still are not earning enough to run the business. That is another billion plus per quarter they have to make up.
Agree- hence my comment. Made up numbers, but $2B in startup R&D, but selling vehicles for 5% over production costs means you’re still long way from being profitable. So we need to understand profitability based on specific metrics. Don’t get me wrong, if you’re selling for more than COGS, it’s a pretty positive sign, but need to understand the big and small picture.
They are improving, but not profitable
They expect to make a profit on each vehicle by the end of the year.
They expect to be gross margin positive, not profitable
Financials keep improving? I suppose if losing slightly less money is good… hopefully people keep giving them money to burn otherwise they won’t have enough on hand to actually get the R2/3 out the door. And I hope they do, but more so I hope they make it profitably because otherwise I don’t see them survivng. But let’s not kid anyone that their financials are turning a corner or anything anytime soon.
They're on essentially the same path Tesla was on. They have a desirable product, they just finished retooling their factory to reduce production costs. They're launching a mass market model in a year and a half. They have $7.5 billion on hand. They also have Amazon as their largest investor and as their largest purchaser of commercial vehicles. Which gives them a very reliable source of income.
The skepticism toward Rivian is pretty weird on this sub considering how in love with Tesla most of the skeptics are.
The skepticism toward Rivian is pretty weird on this sub considering how in love with Tesla most of the skeptics are.
Rivian is on a similar path as tesla for sure but the external variables are very different and goes against their goals unlike tesla. Tesla happened to be in the right place in the right time (carbon credits and an empty EV market) they turned a profit when the interest rates hit an all time low and the prices for new cars hit an all time high. They happened to be in the right place at the right time. If tesla had to do it again in this climate, I am not actually sure they'd make it either.
Tesla's the first in almost a century to make it to actual mass production. It cannot be that it is not as simple and straightforward as people claim. There's a lot of luck involved.
Sure, but Rivian has Amazon's deep pockets supporting them, which I think more than makes up for the different market conditions. Either way, it's ridiculous to act like Rivian will go under before the R2 can come out.
Sure, but Rivian has Amazon's deep pockets supporting them, which I think more than makes up for the different market conditions.
Does amazon have any actual ownership in the company? Them being a major customer can help them but it's not the same as true investment. If so, I agree but if not then I don't really see this as their saving grace.
Amazon owns 17% of the company.
Also, you don't really need to quote nearly my entire comment when you're replying. It's pretty obvious what you're responding to.
lol same path. Delusional.
Idk why you're calling me delusional. I'm basically saying what you're saying but with more nuance. They environment they're in is not conducive to a success story.
I’m also optimistic about Rivian but every new model should be treated as vaporware until it’s in customer hands. Ask Tesla Roadster reservation holders.
Ask any Tesla that required a reservation reservation holders...
You'd find Model 3, Model Y, and Cybertruck owners. So I don't think that was as much of a burn on Tesla as you thought it would be.
I see so many of these on the road now. Hardly any Lucids around.
As a big fan of Lucid I tried hard to buy one recently but ultimately couldn’t justify it. The car is nice, clean etc., but it’s not unique.
Test drove a Rivian and was blown away. Never considered them before but within a week of the test drive I had my R1S Quad on order.
I said I would buy an Ioniq 5 when it was announced. And then I bought one.
atta boy
I like the look of the R3, and by the time it is available we'll have a clearer picture of whether or not Rivian will be making it through these early years. Hope the platform is similar enough with the R2 to have most of the bugs worked out before they start producing the R3.
The Volvo EX30 is similar and coming quite soon.
Don't worry, expect them all to miraculously revive as sticker brands with custom trims and interiors once open standard OEM battery sleds become available.
I wish they leveraged their delivery van production to push out a consumer van (I obviously don’t know sh about f). Families and outdoorsy folk still love the doors and utility of vans.
+1 for the Ozarks reference. A full EV camper van would be a wet dream as long as it had appropriate range. IIRC the delivery vans top out at ~140 miles on a full charge. Not really feasible to get lost in the wilderness with. Throw 350-400 on there and I'd be missing for a week.
There are rumors of a Rivian off road van
Volkswagen ID. Buzz
Does it actually exist as a purchasable vehicle though?
In Europe. I have started seeing Buzz Cargos doing rounds in city in couple courier firms livery. Obviously with large "I'm environmental electric courier" advert banners on their sides. As well as couple passenger Buzzes, presumably on private ownership.
Europe
Ah that explains things. I'm in North America and I haven't seen one yet. Good to know they've at least launched.
It must? Tons of the contractors around here (Sweden) drive I.D. Buzzes, I see several in my neighbourhood a day
Sweden
Ah that explains things. I don't think they've shown up in North America (where I am) yet.
Glad to hear that they exist somewhere though.
Families and outdoorsy folk still love the doors and utility of vans.
Nearly every single person I know (friends, family, coworkers and so on) is interested in an EV that is basically an electric Honda Civic in terms of price and size. They HATE the way everything has become a 50-90 thousand dollar SUV.
Whichever company just releases a damn electric Civic/Corolla or whatever is going to win the whole game. And it feels like no company in earth is trying to fill that obviously popular desire.
That’s called a Tesla Model 3 and has been around for ages.
It doesn’t sell that well in Europe because people want and love giant SUVs.
Whichever company just releases a damn electric Civic/Corolla or whatever is going to win the whole game.
You mean the Bolt? Yeah, it sold so well they killed it.
Sorry I guess I should have specified one that doesn't catch fire and kill its occupants creating a PR nightmare for the company. My fault I thought that would have been obvious.
The ones with replaced batteries are fine. And the Bolt actually did sell well, just not well enough to “win the whole game” as you posit.
Hyundai Ioniq 6 leases are fairly cheap these days; I think it's somewhat bigger than Civic/Corolla, though.
Hey now. Lots of people like the Doors, not just outdoorsy folks and families! 🤪
There are rumors of a Rivian off road van
The Tesla Model 3 was announced on March 31, 2016. Deliveries of the Model 3 began on July 28, 2017. 2019 was when it was generally available without the crazy price markup or long delays.
Ford MachE was announced November 2019 and went on sale in December of 2020.
What crazy price mark-up? There’s only ever one price for a Tesla at a given time.
I think by mark up he means only the higher trims were available. The under $40k standard range base trim wasn’t available until March 2019. Price of the Performance was also really high until 2019, when it dropped from $69k down to high-mid 50s. The Performance was actually $78k if you were lucky enough to take delivery in the first two months.
I really do root for Rivian, but the environment is tough. A lot of things can and will happen in a few years. I think people generally make the mistake to compare Rivians promises to what is on the market right now and expect nothing to change. Let’s hope for the best
They are releasing more SUVs in a market absolutely saturated by SUVs. Jesus Christ
I mean, Americans still tend to want SUV’s and CUV’s over cars. That being said, whenever Toyota gets around to making an electric Camry, I’m sure it’ll break sales records.
raises hand. This is me. I have a sedan that I want to trade for a small SUV or larger Crossover. Car was great when it was just me, but now I want something with more room in the back seat for car seats and stuff.
There is this thing about being car maker.... It has for long time been very low margin and tough business. Large capital and R&D expenses. Lot of competition. So there isn't a market of niche of "hey this is real nice and lucrative open empty niche". All the niches have been occupied long ago and now start to also be covered regards to EV offerings. The only markets available are tough markets. Which is good for consumers.
Anyone who thought one is going to make easy money in heavy manufacturing like cars are, was fooling themselves. Since to scale one needs to scale big. Minituarization isn't a thing in vehicles or the vehicle would lose it's main purpose, transport capacity. One can choose the segment of "transport a little bit or transport a lot". However transport one must and that means minimum size requirements for vehicle. Which sets minimum raw materials, production line size and transport capacity requirements.
One can't tech to victory with "computers always got smaller while with less raw materials needed per computers and at the same time doing more" in heavy industry like transport vehicles. Sure having better tech is a way to getting ones slize of the pie. However it is still tough market. Having good tech just means one survives in the first place.
I swear every EV that interests me is 1-3 years away…
Early adopters are perpetually waiting. "Should I wait for thing Y?" is something constantly asked when "X" was just released last week. Doesn't matter whether it's an iPhone, 3D printer, or an EV, there will be no shortage of people willing to hold out for the next newest thing.
Reserving the R2. I love this company.
Really rooting for Rivian! My wife is pumped for an R2 so hope they can survive to get that into production.
I sure hope so, I specced out a R1T recently, very mid-range specs on the configurator, and it was $140,000 CAD. That's waaaaaaaay too much fucking money.
A hemi Durango is over $80k CAD. That's for a decade old platform with a 25 year old engine design. Yah $140k is a lot, but compared to some junk out there it's starting to look better than the alternative
The way tech is changing so fast these days in the EV space, Rivians aren't going to hold their value well at all. Probably they'll resell for half price within five years, especially when the NACS models come out.
Can confirm, I just bought one and with 15k miles it was a 25k discount from new. I was willing to pay new price, but lightly used was even better.
Guessing import taxes at play? That’d get you the top of the line build in the US.
It's a well designed car that's priced fairly I would say. It's not for your average driver. It is very capable and simultaneously competes with ATVs, performance and efficient cars all the while making a statement with its exterior. That's worth saving and paying for.
Around the corner? 2-3 years doesn’t scream around the corner
In the timescale of the universe its right around the corner
So is a million years from now
I’d say that’s more down the block if anything
gives me time to save up bbyyyyyy
Normal car model development cycle timeline. So it is around the corner as in "they have committed to making it and is planned to come out on the next development cycle".
I like Rivian, I hope they make it.
Same. I’d love to feel confident enough to make one my next EV.
Keep shooting for less expensive. The vehicles are really cool looking, but waaaaaaay out of my price range.
45k is pretty standard for a vehicle now a days though. Plus with the tax credit if it’s eligible it should be a great deal.
It honestly feels like every commenter in /r/electricvehicles is not even in the market for a new vehicle when they talk like $45K is some unreasonable price, when it's actually lower than the average sales price of a new vehicle ($48K).
If people can't afford new vehicles, that's fine, but I get annoyed when they act like the high price tags are unique to new EV's, rather than new cars in general.
Over half of Americans can't afford the average price of a new car and repossessions and defaults are at an all time high. Also there are a dozen of gas models that are cheaper than Model 3/Y after rebate.
Reddit doesn’t represent the average car buyer, and this subreddit doesn’t either.
This theme is common on a lot of subreddits
Tesla doesn’t have issues selling cars, and they’re expensive. Model 3 starts at 39k.
A 45k Rivian (which is probably much much nicer) is going to be a great buy, and they will be a great deal on the used market in the near future.
There are TONS of cars well under 45K unless you're maxing out all your bells and whistles.
To me, you're the one who is out of touch.
Nissan Versa $16,680 https://www.nissanusa.com/vehicles/cars/versa-sedan.html
Where's this but electric?
Exactly. The closest we had was the Bolt but it's gone now.
Thank you! 🙏👍
It's called the Leaf. Been around like forever.
They make it, it's called the Leaf.
Your data point doesn't change the statistics.
Here you go
Don’t be a dick
They sold 20k units last year of that model.
It's not a big seller.
Prioritize what is selling and what people will buy.
That's Nice. EXPAND NORMAL!
Ahh so 2027
I really hope they succeed... the more competitive the North American EV market the better. But those headlights... I just can't. I know its a love it or hate it thing but I just can't love 'em and I really wanna love 'em.
I ❤️ them, you can too!
There are too many mid-size SUV/Crossovers EV’s out there and they are being sold with deep discounts and incentives. Not only that, there are great vehicles from KIA, Hyundai, Ford and GM. The R2 is not going to save Rivian. GM is releasing the Chevy Equinox EV. It’s getting rave reviews and a $35k price tag and will have the market all to itself until the EV3 goes on market. I think they need to jump to the R3 and start making an affordable vehicle that the masses can afford.
Have R2 reservation but am realistically expecting 2027.
As an owner of a Model X from the first production year, several year before the 3 was even announced, all I can say is buckle up Rivian brothers and sisters. It will be a make or break inflection point for the company and customer experience. When I got my X, Tesla was a much smaller company, service was very concierge and white glove, and there were real adults in charge that knew how to placate Elon. That company doesn’t exist anymore. I really want root for Rivian, see the company scale volume, but more importantly scale service and earn customer loyalty. Here’s keeping my fingers crossed🤞🏽
It’s not around the corner, and the R2 is not priced for the same mass appeal.
Truth. The R2 is still a long ways off, and it's going to still be pretty expensive for a lot of people.
Rivian will sell every single one they make for the foreseeable future, even at $50k or $55k.
I'm not denying that. I have an order in for one as well.
In 2017, the "base model" Model 3 was only barely available at $35k, with most people paying closer to $40k, or $45k for the LR.
$40k in 2017 is about $50,800 in 2024 if you believe that.
Sure but model 3 is still 35k-ish
How so? Model 3 started in the low 40s, and the R2, a much larger SUV, is projected to start around 45
2026 dollars and 2017 dollars are not the same dollars.
So what was the model 3 msrp in 2022, before the crazy discounts?
It’s not that there are crazy discounts now, it’s that 2022 prices were crazy inflated because demand was much greater than supply. Current prices are about the same as 2019-2021 prices.
The Model 3 wasn’t necessarily what propelled Tesla, it was the Shanghai factory that they built in under a year and ramped quickly which now manufactures half of Tesla’s vehicles.
Rivian just cancelled their GA plant (ok, paused until/if they raise a few billion). The Normal, IL plant can only output 400k units which could match the output of Tesla’s Fremont factory.
Hypothetically if it’s a hit in the US, they can build a factory in China or whatever but by then the Chinese, US and European EV market will be even more saturated than it is now, so Rivian won’t have the first mover advantage that Tesla had to get people into their ecosystem.
Oh no, there’s zero doubt that the Model 3 didn’t propel Tesla. That Shanghai plant was only possible because of the Model 3.
That’s discounting the Model Y though. That obviously played a major hand in how the company grew.
Tesla announced the Shanghai factory 1 year after the Model 3’s first delivery. That’s a good timeline for Rivian to shoot for opening a second, high volume factory.
Problem is, even if they can follow this timeline, they will be releasing it into a crowded market.
Tesla also raised about 3 billion in capital when their market cap was 4x bigger than Rivian’s is today.
Rivian has to do far more than announce a car or two. They need to do the impossible in a highly competitive market whereas Tesla did what was considered impossible without any meaningful competition.
Here I am still hoping that they bring the R1T to the UK
There is no strong Chinese EV products when model 3 hit the market.
If they can ship R2 I think they will be in a pretty good place. It will not be as big as model 3, because it was really the only game in town. But they will stop losing money.
Only if its gross margin positive
Be here before FSD.....
Considering they have not actually been able to make a profit on their more expensive vehicles, I am wondering how they are going to make money on vehicles that are a little more than half the price. Say what you will about Tesla, they are actually profitable and have been for years.
Im rooting for Rivian but you make a great point. Best guess is they only offer the highest trim levels at first at a much higher price. You see this alot because at some point they have to show that they could make even a small profit if they want to continue to be able to raise money and expand.
Was Tesla profitable on the Model S/X alone, or did investors stick with them because they looked like they might be in their next step?
I know the Model 3 darned near killed the company until they figured out how to make it,THEN propelled explosive growth when they got good at it.
Im not sure if there is a question here. Model S/X were to showcase the technology. They were very expensive and still Tesla lost money but showed they could make a viable car. This is where I think Rivian is today. They are losing money but have showen they can build viable vehicles. Your right the nest step almost killed Tesla but they made it. Lets hope Rivian can make the leap too.
S and X were not profitable. It actually took Tesla almost 10 years to finally become profitable with the model three. One of the reasons that I am skeptical about the future of most legacy auto makers is that it took Tesla 10 years making nothing but EVs in a market with no significant competition and it was still a struggle. That is not the current market conditions, and legacy auto companies are very much trying to play it safe and move very gradually into the EV market. That’s kind of like trying to step into a canoe very gradually. It is bound to get you wet.
Every EV from every manufacturer is always on the cusp of this.
HaHaHaHa 👀
So many people asking for a small EV truck and Rivian just going to release three SUVs instead…
Another SUV, no thanks. Even only the fact that Model 3 is a sedan makes it far superior in my eyes.
That is the ugliest truck on the market. How high would you have to be to be putting around in that clown car.
A make or break moment that could have the company go under? Because Model 3s and Ys exist right now.
But Tesla is on a downward trend. They haven't changed their looks enough for their refresh. You can definitely feel consumers are ready for something different with so many samey Tesla cars over saturating the road. They are also not adding any consumer level vehicles any time soon. It's just 3's and Y's. Not to mention Elon's antics. Now is a perfect time for a competitor to steal Tesla's thunder by offering a different look and more choices.
What? Model Y is best selling car in the world, still moving, despite a refresh coming up.
You can say Teslas are samey when the Cybertruck exists lmao.
Who can steal their thunder? GMs cars are copy paste of already existing blazer and equinox. Rivian is 3 years away from mass production. No one can challenge Tesla, braces no one can mass produces EVs and make money
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1mo
Right around the corner meaning a year or two away and that's assuming no delays