New and looking for resources

TL;DR: I'm a former military analyst, new to betting, looking to use my background in the military and apply it to gambling. However, I'm new to creating algorithms and looking for resources.

I started this account to be the main source of my Reddit research. I'm about two months into sports betting and looking to start building my own models for various sports and betting research.

If anyone has specific resources they like for things like APIs, research papers/backgrounds, modeling templates, other subreddits, or discussion boards, please feel free to post.

I found this sub about two weeks ago, and I’ll definitely be a regular around here. I recently separated from the military with over a decade of data analysis experience, and this seems like the first resource I’ve found with actual knowledgeable individuals.

I started gambling in April while working construction with a bunch of degenerate gamblers (lol). Their degenerate tendencies got me interested. I found a couple of niche markets, focused all my attention on becoming better informed in my bets, and I’ve won a significant amount of money in the last two months. This has led me down a rabbit hole of brainstorming different theories on future models and research methods.

My current theory, though I’m aware I'm new and inexperienced, is that there isn’t enough correlation/cross-correlation in the data used for picking props or markets. I’m aiming to create my own databases/models that I can use for my future betting and understanding of how odds are created.

in algobettingby ProprBets

95%

votto4mvp

I'm a vet as well, although I have yet to discover how to apply my background in aviation maintenance to sports betting lol.

I think the number one thing that frustrates me on the main main gambling subreddits is that people don't seem to grasp what probabilities are. As in, every single offered wager on a betting site can be worth taking *at the right odds*. For example, I expect (>50% probability) that the Yankees will beat my Reds tonight, but I don't think the probability is quite 65% (-185 odds given). Hence I bet on the Reds at +163 because I think they have a greater than 38% chance of pulling it off. That being said, my favorite resource is https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

IMO the easiest calculator for converting odds to implied probabilities (and also has the formulas for use in models at the bottom).

Another tip is automating as much as possible. My stuff isn't where I would like it to be ideally (some sources still exported manually, and stored on a local database), but things like simple scripts for grabbing daily lineups (I use RotoWire personally...free and easy).

And then my 3rd note is to incorporate the Kelly Criterion in some fashion into your models. I nerf the percentage down heavily so I'm never wagering more than 1-2 units on any one bet, but it definitely helps to have the formula in place so your wager amount adjusts for the confidence level/edge.

After typing that all out and rereading your post, I'm realizing it's not exactly what you asked for. However, hopefully still helpful. Also, my background (current line of work as a data engineer) involves a lot of automation and data integrations/transformations/etc, whereas I lack the actual analysis experience that you have. So feel free to message me if there's anything I can help with on that front.

ProprBets

I appreciate the response, your first point is where I’m more aligned to. As someone who regularly bet for a couple years, I never took into account into the odds and why they were posted the way they are. I understand it’s a trap, and they the house wants to position in a way to gain the most amount of money. With this, I wanna know why those odds are posted if that makes sense

Part of my theory is that there’s got to be a way to use odds as a determination for an outcome. Now, I understand that in itself won’t really work, however using several sets of odds might give you a better understanding of what the books believe the outcome will be

votto4mvp

There are books known to be "sharper" than others. Pinnacle is one that's widely regarded as one of the sharpest, so it could be worthwhile to compare with odds at other books. I think books can be more/less sharp in specific markets as well, so there's probably some work that could be done with historical odds vs actual results. I have personally found BetRivers to have the most favorable lines (of books that I use) at least for MLB moneylines

ProprBets

Ohhhh okay, I’ll keep that in mind? Why do you think that for betriver

votto4mvp

I use 4 different sportsbooks to shop for the best lines, and over the past 2 weeks, 49% of the bets I've made have been found on betrivers, and oftentimes pretty wildly different from what I've found on the other 3.

Gold-Order-4267

I can attest to BetRivers having favorable lines. In my experience, player prop markets, specifically NBA and NHL player props are significantly more profitable on Betrivers than any of the other 10-12 books i use/have used. Unfortunately, due to my ignorance/inexperience at the time, this was my first lesson of staying under the radar and avoiding limitations. During this same timeframe i also realized that Betrivers, BallyBet, and Unibet are sharing the same API/data providers as well as the same risk management system

LawyersGunsMoneyy

I nerf the percentage down heavily so I'm never wagering more than 1-2 units on any one bet,

It's pretty standard to use 1/4 or 1/8 Kelly values in the +EV betting community

DotSlashSports

Honestly. My advice is to use chatgpt for the 20$ a month and start asking it questions. It's pretty bang on for the most part.

https://chatgpt.com/share/2fca865c-dd75-48ab-91ba-ab7c589b50c8

LawyersGunsMoneyy

Fairly reassuring that I've read all the books and papers listed there

DotSlashSports

Should ask it more then.

quarterkelly

ChatGPT is an incredible resource to help you with automating a lot of stuff. It also will help you build a model pretty quickly, but tbh the hardest part is building the database. Automate > build the database > build the model.

DotSlashSports

💯

FantasticAnus

For a bit of inspiration you might like to read Trading Bases by Joe Peta. Old hat stuff, really, but the book is worth reading if you're into this stuff.

ProprBets

🤝

Pearyiceteam

I don't even understand how the algorithm would run. Wouldn't you have to connect the program to draftkings? I just think having a system works well

canyonero7

Automating bet placement is really hard, especially with state-legal books like DK because they rely on app functionality like location compliance. It can be done but that's the very last step you should be concerned with. Data > Model > output, then manually placing the bets is plenty of work on its own.